Woodfuel outlook study and revision to FAOSTAT woodfuel estimates

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Woodfuel outlook study and revision to FAOSTAT
woodfuel estimates

• Adrian Whiteman
• FAO, Rome

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Introduction

• Background the need for this work
• Methodology
• Results
• Possible future strategy

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Background the need for this work

• Woodfuel is believed to be the most significant
  use of roundwood
• International policy interest climate change
• National policy interest energy policies,
  deforestation and poverty alleviation
• Currently, most of the data is estimated and,
  until recently, the FAO estimates were awful!

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Trends in countries supplying woodfuel data
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Trends in countries supplying charcoal data
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Methodology

• Data collection
• - FAOSTAT real data c.1000 observations
• - Literature search c. 600 observations
• Econometric analysis
• Revision of all FAOSTAT estimates
• Projections of future consumption

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Statistics used in the analysis 1970-2000
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Modelling hierarchy
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Variables in the models
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Revised historical estimates and projections
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Strengths and weaknesses

• Models had good statistical properties
• - significant explanatory variables
• - correct signs
• Better than previous methodology
• Very weak dataset
• Business as usual projections
• Focus on household consumption

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Challenges for the future

• Numerous different statistics of dubious origin
• Complexity of the woodfuel sector
• High cost of data collection
• Unknown impact of policies
• Very weak dataset
• Business as usual projection
• Focus on household consumption

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Strategy for the future

• Need to stratify the sector
• Different approaches in different sub-sectors
• Econometric analysis can overcome some data
  problems
• Use of existing real data
• National or regional approach?
• Need for policy analysis
• Are countries really interested and committed to
  collect the data?