Tomorrows Cyclists will there be any

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Tomorrows Cyclists facing the challenges
Dr John Stubbs, Department of Geography,
University of Derby, May 2007
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Tomorrows cyclists facing the challenges

• This presentation starts by questioning the
  rationale behind campaigns to increase cycling in
  Britain and continues by discussing some of the
  key issues involved in attempts to effect modal
  shift from car to bicycle. It concludes by
  arguing that the realisation of any such
  substantial modal shift will only be met if
  future cycle campaigning is focused on transport
  demand management policy, rather than just on
  cycling itself.
• 1 Why cycling?
• 2 Where lies the future?
• 3 Facing the challenges

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Why cycling?

• Cycling, like any other form of transport
  (walking, bus, train, tram, car, taxi etc)
  provides mobility regardless of whether for
  utility, leisure or sport. The rationale for
  increasing levels of cycling is usually founded
  upon cyclings benefits to community health and
  the urban environment through its potential to
  replace some of multitude of short car journeys
  that congest the UKs towns and cities. Implicit
  within this argument, is that it has been growing
  motor vehicle dependency over the last half
  century that has been largely responsible for
  health and environmental problems.
• Based on this argument, the question arises as to
  which is more important increasing cycling or
  decreasing car usage? The two are not
  necessarily the same. Car usage could decline
  through people resorting to walking and public
  transport usage without any cycling at all.
  Arguably this would still give substantial health
  and environmental benefits. On the other hand,
  cycling could be increased simply by an
  abstraction from those who previously walked or
  travelled by public transport and so with far
  less health and environmental benefit. With ever
  rising costs of public transport this latter
  scenario may by no means be unrealistic and the
  adage that every bike trip is one less car trip
  does not necessarily hold. The critical point is
  that if the quest for healthy communities,
  liveable cities, and a generally habitable planet
  are to be taken seriously, then increases in
  cycling must come primarily from modal shift from
  the private car.

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1 Why cycling?
Walking
Cycling
Increase
Why?
Mobility (Transport) between any two points
Public transport
Health Environment
Car
Decrease
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1 Why cycling?
Walking
Cycling
Increase
Mobility (Transport) between any two points
Public transport
Car
Decrease
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1 Why cycling?
Walking
Cycling
Increase
Mobility (Transport) between any two points
Which is more important?
Public transport
Car
Decrease
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2 Where lies the future?

• To see where the future might lie for cycling it
  is useful to examine the historical trend in
  cycling in Britain. The Department for Transport
  (DfT) has recorded levels of cycle usage (billion
  vehicle kms) every year since 1949 and while this
  data is of questionable reliability due to the
  small sample size taken, its consistency with the
  trend shown by other cycling data such as from
  the decennial national censuses (mode of
  transport to work) and the 2005 National Travel
  Survey, indicates that this data (figure 1),
  may give a reasonably realistic overview of the
  long term historical trend in cycling.
• As can be seen from figure 1, cycling declined
  rapidly in the 1950s and 1960s. From just under
  24 billion vehicle kms in 1949 it fell to an all
  time low in 1973. Then it increased, possibly due
  to dramatic world oil price rises, but then fell
  back in the 1980s and stabilized in the 1990s to
  reach 4.4 billion vehicle kms in 2005. The growth
  of mass motorisation following World War II is
  often cited as being a factor in the decline of
  cycling. Figure 2 shows car and taxi usage (the
  DfT does not disaggregate between cars and taxis)
  rising from just over 20 billion vehicle kms in
  1949 to just under 400 billion vehicle kms by
  2005. So from a level lower than that of cycling
  in 1949, car usage had risen, 57 years later, to
  some two orders of magnitude greater than cycling
  by 2005.

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Figure 1
Data source Transport Statistics for GB, 2006,
Table 7.1
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Figure 2
Data source Transport Statistics for GB, 2006,
Table 7.1
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2 Where lies the future?

• A very strong statistical relationship exists
  between the two variables, cycle usage and car
  usage, to the extent that rising car usage
  accounts for 93 percent of the decline in cycling
  over the 57 year period (N57, R20.932). The
  relationship between cycling and car usage
  (figure 3) is given by the equation
• cycle usage 3521/car usage
• where both variables are measured in billion
  vehicle kms.
• The implications of this relationship for the
  future of cycling is that it will be strongly
  constrained by the future trajectory of car
  usage, and if only from a health and environment
  point of view, it is the car usage trend rather
  than necessarily the cycle usage trend, that
  should perhaps be the focus of concern. However
  the model shows that no matter how much car usage
  increases there will be at least a residual level
  of cycling (the hard core, determined!). But if
  there should be a decrease in car usage (big if!)
  then people may simply travel less, walk more or
  use more public transport. Cycling will be only
  one possible alternative to the car. To see how
  the option of cycling may be realised, it is
  instructive to examine the tipping point
  between these two modes of transport.

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Figure 2
Figure 3
N 57 R2 0.932
Figure 1
Cycling 3 ___521__ Car usage Cycling
and car usage measured in vehicle kms
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Implications for future of cycling

• cycling dependent upon future levels of car usage
• 1 Car usage increase
• - residual level of cycling
• 2 Car usage decrease
• - needed for cycling increase - But!
• - need big decrease in car usage to get much
  increase in cycling
• - less travel in total
• - walking/public transport
• - cycling?

Cycling 3 _521__ Car usage
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3 Facing the challenges car to bike tipping point

• To start with imagine the two modes in balance
  with each other as, numerically, they were in
  1949/1950. Since this time period the car has
  become ever more comfortable, cheaper, convenient
  and, on the inside but definitely not the
  outside, much safer. Combine this with ever
  greater urban sprawl, which has been both cause
  and consequence of increasing car usage increase
  and there has developed is a very difficult
  environment for cycling (and public transport).
• Most cycle campaigning responses to redress the
  balance in favour of cycling have tended to try
  and make cycling safer either through dedicated
  cycle paths, cycle training, lowered speed limits
  for cars and traffic calming schemes. However to
  make cycling safe in relation to the inside of a
  modern car is, to say the least, challenging and
  many car drivers may, consciously or
  subconsciously, make this safety comparison and
  decide against cycling. If any real progress is
  to be made on modal shift, campaigns need to be
  aimed at policies that compromise the speed,
  economy and convenience of the car (transport
  demand management) so that people may think
  seriously about alternatives to the car. In other
  words the tipping point must be brought back
  towards the bicycle, otherwise what incentive is
  there to change? To this end, the London
  congestion charge, perhaps together with
  restrictive car parking and good cycle
  facilities, seems to have greatly helped increase
  cycling in central London. Whether the observed
  increases in cycling have come from people
  leaving their cars behind or rather from leaving
  (crowded/expensive) public transport behind is
  not be altogether clear.

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3 The tipping point car to bike
Cycle
Car
Tipping point
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3 The tipping point car to bike
Cycle
Car
Tipping point
Cheap Convenient Comfortable Fast Safe (inside)
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3 The tipping point car to bike
Cycle
Car
Tipping point
Cheap Convenient Comfortable Fast Safe (inside)
Urban Sprawl
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3 The tipping point car to bike
Cycle
Car
Cycle training Cycle paths Cycle parking Safer
roads
Tipping point
Cheap Convenient Comfortable Fast Safe (inside)
Urban Sprawl
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3 The tipping point car to bike
Car
Cycle
Cheap Convenient Comfortable Fast Safe (inside)
Tipping point
Cycle training Cycle paths Cycle parking Safer
roads
Urban Sprawl
Congestion (charging) (Parking)
Restrictions (Road) Pricing Transportation
Demand Management Planning
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3 The tipping point car to bike
To secure any future for cycling, must have -
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3 The tipping point car to bike
To secure the future of cycling, must have -
Cycle Promotion and Campaigning Policies
Transport Demand Management Planning
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3 The tipping point car to bike
To secure the future of cycling, must have -
Cycle Promotion and Campaigning Policies
Transport Demand Management Planning
For if not -
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The Sisyphean task of Cycle Campaigning!
Cycle Campaigning
Car traffic
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3 Facing the challenges car to bike tipping point

• A key point is that trying to increase cycling in
  the context of ever rising and unconstrained car
  usage is a Sisyphean task rather like trying to
  run up a down escalator. For as fast as cycling
  schemes may be implemented the attractiveness of
  the motor vehicle beckons (speed, economy,
  comfort) and effectively nullifies the attempt
  to cycling. Arguably the current Government
  plans to relax planning legislation to hasten the
  construction of more roads and peripheral urban
  development does not bode well for the long term
  future of cycling (or walking and public
  transport)
• Conclusion
• All the above arguments are predicated on the
  basis that
• - achieving improved community health and a
  better urban environment really is the raison
  dêtre for cycle campaigning?
• - increased cycling should come from modal shift
  from car usage and not from people who already
  walk and/or use public transport?
• If these two fundamental standpoints are
  accepted, and if cycling in 21st century urban
  Britain is to have any long term sustained
  future, then campaigning must focus itself firmly
  on advocating robust transport demand management
  policies. Just implementing cycle promotion
  schemes alone, while necessary, is unlikely to be
  sufficient to secure the future for tomorrows
  cyclists.

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Tomorrows cyclists facing the challenges

• Conclusions
• 1 Why cycling?
• - environment/health cycle increase or car
  decrease?
• Where lies the future?
• - depends critically on the limits of car usage
• Facing the challenges the tipping point from
  car to bike
• - limits to extent people can be attracted to
  cycling
• - critical role of TDM policies

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Tomorrows cyclists facing the challenges

• Any feedback on any of the issues raised in this
  presentation would be most welcome. Please
  contact
• Dr John Stubbs
• Department of Geography
• University of Derby
• Derby DE22 1GB
• E-mail j.stubbs_at_derby.ac.uk