Presentation by

1
Stochastic Modelling Approach for the Reduction
of Technical Engineering-based Risk

• Presentation by
• Gordon BarrDept. of Engineering Mathematics,
  University of Bristol
• 30th January 2003

2
Research Background

• Initially developed through the EPSRC STARTright
  project, in collaboration with Cambridge
  University
• Brief To provide software-based methods for
  engineers to minimise risk in the design process
• Companies were consulted from several sectors of
  the engineering industry and their project
  processes studied
• Prototype software and methods primarily
  developed with ALSTOM, and to lesser extent,
  Metso-Svedala

3
The SMARTER Software Development

• SMARTER endeavours to
• Allow design information to be inputted which has
  an impact on key project deliverables
• Enable engineers to highlight the major causes of
  uncertainty and risk in engineering projects
• Permit the entire project team to participate in
  the management of project risk and uncertainty
• Reuse relevant historical data in current project
  situations
• Make possible the exploration of project
  alternatives and what-if analysis

4
Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

• KPIs are used to help make decisions
• SMARTER enables
• KPIs to be identified
• Using Sensitivity Analysis
• KPIs to be tackled
• At the outset of engineering projects
• Given limited amounts of historical information
• Using the ability of experienced engineers
• The consequence of failing to meet KPIs
• e.g. How likely is it that the project will be
  over budget?
• e.g. Which KPIs should we be most worried about?

5
About the Case Study Metso-Svedala

• Mechanical Design Management Company
• Specialise in designing coordinating the build
  of heavy mechanical plant.
• Product designs include
• Rail Car Dumper Systems
• Stacker Systems for Loose Material
• Reclaimer Systems for Loose Material
• Ship Mounted Material Unloaders
• Selected Case StudyTandem Random Car Dumper
  (Crescent)

6
Metso-Svedala - Single Unit Car Dumper
7
Metso-Svedala - Car Dumper In Operation
Crescent Dumper (0º)
Crescent Dumper (45º)
8
Metso-Svedala Car Dumper Pictures
9
Metso-Svedala Risk Issues

• Each Metso-Svedala project typically contains a
  large amount of original, adaptive or variant
  design
• Original designs cause problems!
• Will the client change their requirements
  radically?
• Will the components work together in a different
  configuration?
• Suppliers and contractors are often new to the
  company
• Performance issues
• Problems adhering to standards (local practices,
  etc)

10
SMARTER Method Overview

• Application split into two distinct sections
• Wizard
• Advanced
• Reason Generally engineers do not fully
  understand / like to use probability theory!
• The Wizard section
• Removes the exposure of engineers to the
  underlying probability model.
• Allows engineers to assert probability
  distributions based on linguistic statements.

11
Software Demonstration

• Please do feel free to ask questions!

12
Additional Slides

• These slides may be used toelaborate on certain
  points.

13
Project Structures
14
PBS and WBS Interaction
Product Breakdown Structure
Work Breakdown Structure
DesignLink
ManufacturingLink
15
Issues Important to Metso-Svedala

• The following Metso-Svedala issues were
  identified
• Conceptual design stage / tendering stage is
  critical
• Uncertainty relating to original design
  elements is not currently quantified
• Monitoring project target values is critical
  (similar to KPIs)
• Metso-Svedala engineers need a fast method of
  evaluating data owing to time pressures
• Not all Metso-Svedala engineers are familiar with
  probabilistic modelling methods