Consumption patterns of meat

1
Consumption patterns of meat

• by
• André Jooste and David Spies
• Department of Agricultural Economics
• University of the Free State
• Meat Imbizo
• Bloemfontein
• 2 March 2006

2
Contents

• International issues
• Domestic issues

3
International
4
Meat consumption
Source Barnard, P. (MLA, 2005)
5
Impact of promotion programmes in the USA Beef
consumption
Purcells beef demand index
6
Impact of programmes in the Australia Beef
consumption
Purcells beef demand index
7
Perceptions for the evolution for the per capita
demand for beef between 1993 and 2020
Kg/person/year
8
Consumption for selected countries Per capita

• Australia (Carcass weights - Abare 2004-05)
• 36.2kg beef
• 2.3kg mutton and 10.3kg lamb
• US (USDA/ERS 2004)
• 43kg beef (avg 2000-2003)
• 29.8kg pork (avg 2000-2003)
• 0.58kg lamb (avg 2000-2003)
• 41.91kg chicken (avg 2000-2003)

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Domestic
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Total and per capita consumption of beef
DoA, 2005
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Total and per capita consumption of
sheep/mutton/goat
DoA, 2005
12
Total and per capita consumption of pork
DoA, 2005
13
Total and per capita consumption of white meat
DoA, 2005
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Per capita income vs per capita consumption

• Per capita income
• Sideways from early 70s to mid 90s thereafter
  upward trend
• General trends for beef, sheep and pork
• 1970s to late 1990 downwards
• Late 1990 to ?2001 sideways
• ? 2001 to date upwards for beef and pork, but
  down for sheep
• General trend for poultry upwards
• Concerning also that per capita consumption did
  not react, as expected, to declining real prices
  for beef, pork and sheep

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Interesting issues to consider
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Association of pork as a white meat has
increased (National Pork Board - US)
When you think of white meat, what specific food
products or
types of meat come to mind?
(unaided/total mentions)
96
92
58
50
49
31
26
9
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Consumer reaction Pork (Bloemfontein SA)
Bron Oyewumi Jooste, 2005
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Other studies

• In SA
• AC Nielsen
• Mutton (RPO en MLA)
• Consumer trends Impact of economic vs
  non-economic factors on meat consumption in South
  Africa (Taljaard, Jooste Asfaha, 2005)
• Consumer preferences for fat Do consumers pay
  less for fat the case of selected beef cuts in
  Bloemfontein? (Shongwe, Jooste, Hugo, 2005)

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Bird flu Press Reports

• Retailers said that due to bird flu reports,
  around 65 percent decline has been noticed in
  sales of chicken meat and live chicken. (in
  KARACHI) (DAILY TIMES)
• Prices for poultry are plunging in the UK
  because of increasing imports from France where
  sales have dropped heavily as a result of the
  discovery of bird flu. (Fiona Harvey)
• France, where sales of poultry have fallen by a
  fifth, the United Nations Food and Agriculture
  Organisation said on Tuesday. In Italy, sales
  have fallen by 70 per cent. (Fiona Harvey)
• In Kenya, one of the African nations best
  prepared to deal with any outbreak of bird flu,
  worries about the disease have sent chicken sales
  plunging 40 percent since November as people turn
  to alternatives such as mutton and beef. (Laurie
  Goering)
• About 750,000 people are employed in poultry
  breeding, and about 800 million chickens are
  eaten annually in Egypt. Lay-offs are already
  approaching 30 per cent as sales plummet, with
  the industry losing about US1.7 million a day.
  (Daniel Williamson)

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Bird flu Press Reports

• Chicken is back on the citys (Mambai) menu, and
  so are the smiles on the faces of poultry
  farmers, sellers, hoteliers and, of course,
  consumers.
• Retailers are also overjoyed. Rafiq Khan of Amir
  Poultry Private Limited at LT Market, said,
  Sales doubled yesterday from the previous day.
  Normally, we sell around 50 chickens a day. We
  are already up to 40 now.

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Issues to address

• Are the producer optimally linked with the
  consumer? (Value chain approach rather than
  supply chain approach)
• Are there enough RD directed at the consumer of
  meat?
• Information systems
• Linkages with other roleplayers, e.g. consumer
  council, medical docters, dieticians, etc.
• Can the industry cope with increased demand?
• Impact of diseases and public communication?

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Dankie
Thank you