SunSolar System Connection

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Sun-Solar System Connection
Strategic Roadmap Committee 10 Mission
Worksheets v. April 27, 2005
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Sun-Solar System Connection RoadmapThe Path from
Science Objectives to Implementation
Agency Strategic Objective Explore the Sun-Earth
system to understand the Sun and its effects on
the Earth, the solar system, and the space
environmental conditions that will be experienced
by human explorers
The following charts document the detailed
process by which the roadmap team will establish
Sun-Solar System Connection program
implementation requirements and prioritize the
recommended program elements Steps to
completion 1 Team to complete charts 1a
Engage Jenny/Steele to suggest final wording,
style 2 Iterate with team for accuracy, fiscal
reality, agreement with intent, ability to make
substantial progress on all three science
objectives 3 Completion date May 6 speak now,
there will be little time to iterate at the May
meeting. 4 Finalization May 11 and May 13.
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Step 1 Science Objectives
Agency Strategic Objective Explore the Sun-Earth
system to understand the Sun and its effects on
the Earth, the solar system, and the space
environmental conditions that will be experienced
by human explorers
Opening the Frontier to Space Environment
Prediction
Understand the fundamental physical processes of
the space environment from the Sun to Earth, to
other planets, and beyond to the interstellar
medium
Understanding the Nature of Our Home in Space
Understand how human society, technological
systems, and the habitability of planets are
affected by solar variability and planetary
magnetic fields
Safeguarding Our Outbound Journey
Maximize the safety and productivity of human and
robotic explorers by developing the capability to
predict the extreme and dynamic conditions in
space
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Step 2 Science Objectives to Research Focus
Areas
Agency Strategic Objective Explore the Sun-Earth
system to understand the Sun and its effects on
the Earth, the solar system, and the space
environmental conditions that will be experienced
by human explorers
Opening the Frontier to Space Environment
Prediction
Understanding the Nature of Our Home in Space
Safeguarding our Outbound Journey
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Step 3 Recommended Science Investigations
Agency Strategic Objective Explore the Sun-Earth
system to understand the Sun and its effects on
the Earth, the solar system, and the space
environmental conditions that will be experienced
by human explorers
Research Focus Areas and Recommended Science
Investigations
Opening the Frontier to Space Environment
Prediction
Well want to make shorter chart versions of
many of these RFAs and investigations
Understanding the nature of our home in space
Safeguarding our outbound journey
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Step 4 Priority Investigations Lead to Targeted
Outcomes
Phase 1 2005-2015
Phase 2 2015-2025
Phase 3 2025-beyond
Open the Frontier to Space Environment Prediction
Understand the Nature of our Home in Space
Safeguard our Outward Journey

• Develop technologies, observations, and
  knowledge systems that support operational systems

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Step 5 Known Resources to be applied
In Development
Partnership
Low- to mid cost, multi-objective, strategically
planned for fundamental space physics and space
weather investigations Current Resources 1
launch per 5 years
MMS Reconnection
STEREO CME Propagation
Solar-B Solar Magnetic Fields
Low- to mid-cost, multi-objective, strategically
targeted for Life and Society Science
investigations, Recommended 1 launch per 3
years
RBSP Earth-gtMoon Radiation
SDO Solar Dynamics
Important for completiongt
Explorers, single objective, strategically
selected to respond to new knowledge/decision
points, Recommendation 1 launch per 2 years
THEMIS Magnetic Substorms
AIM Noctilucent Clouds
IBEX Interstellar Boundary
MIDEX
SMEX
MIDEX
SMEX
MIDEX
SMEX
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Step 6 Targeted Outcomes to Mission
Recommendations
Illustration of requirements flow-down

• U.S. mandate for Sun-Solar System Connection
  science and exploration determined research focus
  areas
• Vision for Space Exploration led to scheduling of
  targeted outcomes
• Each targeted outcome traced to required
  understanding and to focused, prioritized
  enabling capabilities and measurements
• Missions, groups of missions, research, theory,
  and modeling program elements, are derived from
  capabilities and measurement requirements
• Consolidation of priority outcomes show that many
  program elements contribute to multiple
  achievements and focus areas
• Missions singly and together contribute unique
  and vital data to understand the system of
  systems
• Mission studies at GSFC and JPL, including
  assessment of feasibility and maturity,
  categorized into cost classes
• Explorer (lt 250M), strategic (250M-500M),
  large strategic (500M-1B), flagship (gt1B)

Requirement -flowdowns developed for each
anticipated outcome. Prioritization of targeted
outcomes informs final prioritization of program
elements and mission concepts. Access current
set of these flow diagrams at http//sun.stanford.
edu/roadmap/flowdiagrams.html
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Step 7 Phase 1 - Extracted from FOGs
Partnership missions to be summarized elsewhere
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Step 8 Phase 2 - Extracted from FOGs
Partnership missions to be summarized elsewhere
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Step 9 Phase 3 - Extracted from FOGs
Partnership missions to be summarized elsewhere
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Step 10 Mission Recommendations
Low- to mid cost, multi-objective, strategically
planned for fundamental space physics and space
weather investigations Recommendation 1 launch
per 2-3 years
MMS Reconnection
STEREO CME Propagation
Important for completion gt
Low- to mid-cost, multi-objective, strategically
targeted for Life and Society Science
investigations, Recommended 1 launch per 2-3
years
RBSP Earth-gtMoon Radiation
SDO Solar Dynamics
Solar Probe Inner Helio Boundary
Important for completiongt
Explorers, single objective, strategically
selected to respond to new knowledge/decision
points, Recommendation 1 launch per 2 years
MIDEX Examples 1. E.g., Mission Name to
address . 2. 3. 4.
SMEX Examples 1. 2. 3. 4.
THEMIS Magnetic Substorms
AIM Noctilucent Clouds
IBEX Interstellar Boundary
MIDEX
SMEX
MIDEX
SMEX
MIDEX
SMEX
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Sun-Solar System Connection
Phase 1 Worksheets
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F1A Targeted Outcome to Capabilities to
Implementation
Targeted Outcome Phase 2005-2015, Opening the
Frontier Measure magnetic reconnection at the Sun
and the Earth
Required Understanding
What mechanisms lead to onset of reconnection?
What instabilities lead to global effects?
To elucidate the role of microphysics,
meso-scales, global topology and cross-scale
coupling in reconnection
What are the mechanisms and regions of particle
acceleration within the reconnection geometry?
Where are the reconnection regions and what is
their topology?
Enabling Capabilities Measurements
Can be a little more specific Electron and ion
scale particle distributions, fields, waves in
what wavelengths over what portion of the
global scale
New simulation techniques to incorporate
microphysics into large-scale systems
Ultra-high time resolution in situ particles and
fields on satellite clusters with variable spacing
Current in situ and remote measurements from SEC
Great Observatory
What measurements are needed from GO? For current
studies or as overlap? What do we need that we
dont already have from the GO?
No need for solar wind or IMF information for
Geospace Reconnection? Auroral imaging for tail
reconnection?
Ultra-high resolution coronal imaging
What, on the sun, do we need images of??
Implementation Phase 1 2005-2015
Cluster, TRACE, Polar To elucidate solar wind
coupling and cross-scale coupling processes
inherent in reconnection
Theory/Modeling Program To enable predictive
capabilities at the Sun and Earth
Other Agencies
STP mission
Explorer Candidate??
L1 Monitor, Auroral Imaging Solar Wind, IMF,
Substorm onsets
MMS To observe microphysics of reconnection
in-situ at the Earths magnetosphere
RAM To determine global topology of reconnection
at the Sun
What do ADDITIONAL TRACE and Polar observations
give you that you dont already have???
What resource to apply for RAM?? See resource/
recommendation charts 7 12
Description should differentiate from Cluster
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F1B Targeted Outcome to Capabilities to
Implementation
Targeted Outcome Phase 2005-2015, Opening the
Frontier Determine the dominant processes of
particle acceleration
Required Understanding
Shock acceleration processes
Role of magnetic field topology
Coherent electric field acceleration
Role of seed particle population
Where are particles accelerated? - Coronal Mass
Ejection Shocks - Solar flares, Current Sheets -
Corotating Interaction Regions - Bow shocks,
Radiation Belts, Auroral Zones - Magnetotails,
Termination Shock
Stocastic acceleration processes
Thermal plasma (solar wind) acceleration
Waves, turbulence intermittent processes
Energy Spectrum and Composition
Enabling Capabilities Measurements
Multi-point In-situ determinations of energetic
particles and fields at micro/meso-scales in
magnetosphere
UV Spectroscopic in-situ determination of
Pre/Post-shock density, shock speed, compression,
ion electron velocity distributions, charge
states, abundances, Alfven speed, magnetic field
angle
Needs more comprehensive treatment of
acceleration processes across the solar system -
the where is a good list but not followed
through into the capabilities and measurement
perhaps work cannot be finished within phase 1??
X-ray, gamma-ray, neutron, radio measurements of
SEP source regions
UV Spectroscopic in-situ determination of
Flare/Current Sheet electron density,
temperature, inflow/outflow velocities, charge
states, abundance
Neutral Energetic Atom imaging of energetic
particles
Implementation Phase 1 2005-2015
Integrated empirical Theory/Modeling Program To
guide the evolution of physics based predictive
theory
Inner Heliosphere Sentinels Near Earth
Coronagraphs To fully characterize SEP regions
Solar/HeliosphericGreat Observatory To develop
new measurement techniques
STEREO/SDO/Solar-B To understand flare/CME
SEPs IBEX To understand acceleration at
termination shock
Magnetospheric Multi-Scale Mission To understand
coupling and microphysics of reconnection
Thank you for the support, but there is little
connection to the above
need better reason and do we need every element
of the GO?? If so, why?
Is there really little need for RBSP??
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F1C Targeted Outcome to Capabilities to
Implementation
Targeted Outcome Phase 2005-2015, Opening the
Frontier Set the critical scales over which
cross-scale coupling occurs
Required Understanding
What determines the size of small scale
structures in the ionosphere?
How do scale sizes change across plasma
boundaries?
To elucidate cross-scale coupling in all regions
from the Sun through the Earths atmosphere and
into interplanetary space
What role does microturbulence play in coupling
to very large scales?
What are the important scale sizes for coupling
in the solar atmosphere?
Isnt the interstellar boundary part of this
outcome?
Enabling Capabilities Measurements
In situ particle and field measurements on
satellite clusters with variable spacing
Current in situ and remote measurements from SEC
Great Observatory
New simulation techniques to incorporate
turbulence on a microscale into large-scale
systems
Multi-spacecraft ionospheric measurements and
imaging combined with solar input
High time resolution imaging of multiple layers
in the solar atmosphere
Voyager? IBEX?
Implementation Phase 1 2005-2015
Cluster, Stereo, L1/ Earth multi-measurements To
elucidate solar wind cross-scale coupling and the
change of scale sizes across boundaries
Theory/Modeling Program To enable predictive
capabilities at the Sun and Earth
MMS To observe scale lengths of reconnection in
situ and determine the importance of
microturbulence
SDO, IT Storm Probes To determine the important
scale size coupling in the solar atmosphere and
to provide input for ionospheric
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Required Understanding
Enabling Capabilities Measurements
Check, is this what was meant? By the way, why
are we only modeling to 1AU instead of
magnetopause?
Implementation Phase 1 2005-2015
Solar System Observatoryl
STP mission
LWS mission
This is model development, not theory
development, do we mean to cite TRT SWx modeling
or the Theory Program?
What resource to apply in phase 1??
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Targeted Understanding
Enabling Capabilities Measurements
Implementation Phase 1 2005-2015
What resource for GEC?? How does SDO really give
you a driver that we can use now? Isnt it more
of a IMF/SW monitor that is needed in phase 1
(STEREO and/or L1 monitor)?
New partnership category needed for the ones in
red THEMIS needs a substorm box in
understanding box? and AIM, how is that
supported above??
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H1C Targeted Outcome to Capabilities to
Implementation
Targeted Outcome Phase 2005-2015, Opening the
Frontier Identify the Impacts of Solar
Variability on the Earths Atmosphere
Required Understanding
Temporal and spectral variability of solar
ionizing and dissociating irradiance
Tidal, planetary, and gravity wave generation,
modulation, and coupling
Parameterizations of turbulence and wave effects
in GCMs
Radiative cooling in response to energy
deposition
Composition changes resulting from solar energy
deposition
Temporal, spectral, and spatial variability of
solar energetic particle inputs
Neutral plasma dynamics, structure,
circulation
Horizontal and vertical energy and constituent
transport
Enabling Capabilities Measurements
Global density, composition, temperature, and
winds surface - 650 km? over a solar cycle
Spectral, spatial, and temporal variation of
photon and energetic particle inputs over a solar
cycle
First principles data-assimilating models for
predicting atmospheric structure and composition
and their response to varying energy inputs
Energy redistribution by tides, gravity and
planetary waves and turbulence
Global imaging of the ITM
Implementation Phase 1 2005-2015
Existing Assets TIMED, IMAGE
Theory Program Wave interactions, Coupling
Explorer
LWS mission
AIM
SDO, ITM Waves, ITSP
Model Development Whole Atmosphere GCM
Cant do both ITSP ITMW in Phase 1, which
should we do?
Rocket Campaigns Energy inputs, Atm. coupling
Explorer Candidate
SECEP
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H1D Targeted Outcome to Capabilities to
Implementation
Targeted Outcome Phase 2005-2015, Understand our
Home in Space Describe How Space Plasmas and
Planetary Environments Interact
Required Understanding
Plasma neutral dynamics, structure,
circulation, instabilities
Roles of varying atmospheric chemistry on heat,
momentum, and energy transfer between atmospheric
regions.
Tidal, planetary, and gravity wave
generation,modulation, and coupling.
Energy flow between plasma and neutrals
Effects of planetary magnetic field geometry on
energy and momentum transfer
Precipitation patterns of energetic particles.
Morphology of ionospheric current systems
Enabling Capabilities Measurements
Tomographic and occultation studies to quantify
large-scale motions of plasmas and neutrals
Simultaneous 3D plasma and neutral drift
measurements
Constellations of satellites in complementary
orbits to resolve space-time ambiguities and
enable predictive models
Measurements of 3D particle distribution
functions from thermal to tens of MeV
Empirical and first-principles models for cause
and effect based prediction
Implementation Phase 1 2005-2015
Theory Program To include cross-scale coupling
processes, and effects at the upper and lower
boundaries of the atmosphere
TIMED and IMAGE
I-TSP and ITM Waves To understand sources of
ionospheric structure, and responses to
geomagnetic storms, EUV radiation, and gravity
waves
GEC To understand the energy exchange processes
in the current layer at the top of the atmosphere
Rocket Campaigns To provide high resolution,
coordinated sampling of key mesospheric and
thermospheric regions
Model Development To include assimilation for
nowcasting and forecasting
Need to identify resources for these in Phase 1
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J1A Targeted Outcome to Capabilities to
Implementation
Targeted Outcome Phase 2005-2015, Safeguarding
our Outbound Journey Determine Extremes of the
Variable Radiation Space Environments at Earth,
Moon, Mars
Required Understanding
Causes of Surface, Atmosphere, Ionosphere
Magnetosphere Environment Enhancements
Variability of Space Environments at between
Earth, Moon Mars
CME Associated Planetary Interplanetary
Radiation Responses
High Speed Stream Associated Radiation Responses
Internal Processes of Magnetospheric Radiation
Enhancements
What Processes Lead to Extreme Environments?
Enabling Capabilities Measurements
Measurements of atmospheric, ionospheric,
magnetospheric interplanetary environment
enhancements conditions of occurrence
Determine relationships of trapped SEP fluxes
plus atmosphere ionosphere changes with
solar-interplanetary conditions
Assimilative theoretical models to provide
linkage between observables near term plus
future environmental enhancements
Measurements needed from planetary atmospheres
through interplanetary medium
Implementation Phase 1 2005-2015
Current Missions TIMED, Soho, ACE, Cassini,
Cluster, etc. Extend environment data bases
inform on current environment conditions in
support of model development testing
Theory Program To understand responses of
planetary (Earth, Moon, Mars) interplanetary
environments to solar and internal drivers
LWS missions
Contributing
Enabling
SDO, RBSP, ITSP Sentinels to provide new
environmental measurements and provide the data
for new model and theory development
MMS, what else? Additional environmental
measurements and data for new model and theory
development
Rocket Campaigns Provide upper atmosphere and
lower ionosphere responses to energy inputs
Model Development To provide linkage between
spatial regions plus source-response relationships
Which Sentinels? Cant do all in Phase 1 What
measurement is SDO providing for this?
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J1C Targeted Outcome to Capabilities to
Implementation
Targeted Outcome Phase 2005-2015, Safeguarding
the Journey Nowcast solar and space weather and
forecast All-Clear periods for space explorers
near Earth
Required Understanding
Propagation of solar wind transients
Origin of fast and slow solar wind
CME buildup (incl subsurface)
CME initiation / trigger
secular evolution of corona (non-CME)

• We need to be able to trace three separate things
  through this chart
• Nowcast solar disturbances
• Nowcast space weather between Earth and Moon
• Forecast all clear between Earth and Moon (3
  days??)
• And we have to use only the assets we will have
  between now and 2015 (see resources chart)
  boxes need to reflect those Understandings and
  measurements

Origin of SEP events and relation to CMEs and
other active phenomena
Coronal hole origin and relation to open flux
Propagation of solar energetic particles
Propagation and evolution of ambient global solar
wind
Conditions for Radiation Belts and for
Ionospheric-related communication/drag
disturbances important too!
Enabling Capabilities Measurements
Integrated sun-Earth models using much improved
solar inputs and including energetic particle
generation/acceleration
Multi-view magnetograph observations, coronal
magnetic field measurements
Multi-view remote-sensing observations (white
light, XUV, radio-wave), multi-point in-situ
observations (plasma, field, particles)
Solar polar magnetic field observations
Subsurface flow diagnostics
Far side detection
In situ coronal observations (acceleration)
Implementation Phase 1 2005-2015
Current missions A,B Prototyping ACE, SOHO,
STEREO, WIND, SDO, Solar B
Theory Program To understand .
Potential Explorer Mission
Recommended ??? Mission
Mission C To provide more complete info Doppler,
HS, JANUS, PASO, Sentinels, SEPP, Shields,SIRA,
SWB
Mission D More difficult observations SO, SPI,
SP, TLM
This list is impossible for phase 1 refer to
resources/recommendation pages and make
recommendations for slots that are available
try format in F2A??
Model Development Sun-Earth models incl particles
Rocket Campaigns To inform on .
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Sun-Solar System Connection
Phase 2 Worksheets
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F2A Model the Magnetic Processes that drive
Space Weather Targeted Outcome Phase 2-
2015-2025, Opening the Frontier
Required Understanding
Critical parameters that determine coupling
phenomena across multiscalar interfaces
Dominant processes controlling reconnection and
acceleration
Source driver for solar/stellar dynamos
How processes accessible in the Earths
magnetosphere relate to other planetary magnetic
systems
Dynamics and topology of magnetospheres as a
function of internal and external drivers
Creation and evolution of planetary dynamos
Enabling Capabilities Measurements
Hybrid computer algorithms for complex cross
scale models
Remote and in situ near-Sun particle and field
observations
Large scale observations of magnetically
controlled phenomena
Spatially and temporally resolved observations of
multiscale interface regions Sun-Corona, SW-CME,
SW-Mag, Mag-IT, IT-Atm, Helio-Interstellar
Community access to system level Sun-Earth models
Assumes completion of activities documented in F1A
Implementation Phase 2 2015-2025
Great Observatory
Model Development Community wide modeling
workshops focusing on model development
Important elements of Great Observatory as it
should exist at that time see phase 1 missions
LWS Program
Contributing
LWS missions
Enabling
Mission Name What it will do in 1 line
List only those missions that can fit into
available resources (slide 7) or identify other
resource
Potential Discovery
Other Agencies
JPO What it will do in 1 line
L1 Monitor, Potential Partnerships, etc
STP Program
Contributing
STP Program
Enabling
Mission Name What it will do in 1 line
Potential Explorer
Mission Name What it will do in 1 line
Mission Name What it will do in 1 line
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Targeted Understanding
Enabling Capabilities Measurements
Implementation Phase 2 2015-2025
See chart F2A, need to align missions with
resources
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J2C Targeted Outcome to Capabilities to
Implementation
Targeted Outcome Phase 2, Safeguarding the
Journey Specify Spacecraft and Communications
Environments at Mars
Required Understanding
Wave-wave interactions at all scales
Parameterizations of turbulence and gravity wave
effects in GCMs
Non-LTE radiative transfer
Neutral plasma instabilities
Wave-turbulence interactions
Plasma irregularities at Earth Mars effects
on radio propagation
Dust, aerosol evolution and characteristics
Plasma-neutral coupling with B-field
Wave-mean flow interactions
Lightning
Enabling Capabilities Measurements
First principles data-assimilating models for
predicting global atmosphere and ionosphere
structure
Archival and real-time global measurements of
neutral plasma density, B-field, temperature,
winds
Critical Regimes Entry, Descent Landing (EDL),
0-40 km Aerocapture, 40-80 km Aerobraking
Orbital Lifetime, 80-250 km Ionosphere 90-200 km
Electrical Dust Environments
Mitigate ionosphere effects on precision landing
(GPS)
Empirical models of global Mars atmosphere
structure variability
Implementation Phase 1 2005-2015
Implementation Phase 2 2015-2025
LWS Program
What Program?
Potential Scout
Theory Modelling Program To develop an
Assimilative Model for Mars whole Atmosphere
TIMED Mission To inform on tidal and tide-mean
flow processes relevant to Mars
ITM WAVES Mission To inform on wave-wave,
wave-mean flow processes and parameterizations
relevant to Mars
IT Storm Probes Mission To inform on plasma
irregularities relevant to COMM and NAV systems
at Mars and between Earth Mars
Mars Dynamics Mission To collect observations of
densities, temperatures and winds 0-100 km over
all local times at Mars
Theory Modelling Program To understand waves,
instabilities, and plasma processes that
determine variabilities of Earth Mars
environments develop surface to ionopause
first-principles model of Mars atmosphere
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Sun-Solar System Connection
Phase 3 Worksheets
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Targeted Understanding
Enabling Capabilities Measurements
Implementation Phase 3 2025-2035
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Sun-Solar System Connection
END