IAASTD SCENARIO WORKING GROUP STATUS May 3, Bangkok meeting

1
IAASTD SCENARIO WORKING GROUP
--- STATUSMay 3, Bangkok meeting
2
OUTLINE

• Scenario Chapters and Names
• Suggestions for AM and GO
• Chapter 4 - Framework
• Chapter 5 Storylines for Future Scenarios
• Detailed chapter outline - Ch 6
• Brief model descriptions model interactions
• Quantitative output indicators
• First set of results of reduced set of models

3
SCENARIO CHAPTERS
Chapter 4 Framework Drivers, Plausible
Futures, Modeling Tools Chapter 5 -
Storylines (to 2050) Chapter 6
- Storyline/scenario outputs analyses,
interpretation and synthesis of outputs
4
SCENARIO NAMES (suggested)
GO Policy and Markets AM Local
Learning TG Green Technologies OS Self
Sufficiency / Sovereign Interest
5
SUGGESTION FOR AM AND GO

• GO
• Implementation of CC policies other policies
• to reverse environmental degradation
• better distribution, even more inverse on health
  education
• more infrastructure
• lower meat demand
• Environmentally and equity conscious growth
• Labor compacts
• Certification
• Reduced meat elasticities
• AM
• Implement highest GDP and lowest POP or TG
• Trade liberalization?
• Higher AST agricultural productivity growth
• More rapid technology development without
  environmental degradation

6
SUGGESTION FOR AM AND GO

• AM and GO
• might converge in some key outputs while retain
  individual flavours
• To accomplish this in both storyline and
  quantification - important to track key
  indicators for
• human well-being
• environmental outcomes

7
Chapter 4 Framework

• Provide a basis to the scenario work
• Rationale for choices made in Chapter 5, 6
• Assessing literature on trends that directly or
  indirectly influence agriculture development/AKST
  (drivers)

8
Lay out of Chapter 4

• 4.1 Scenario-based assessment
• Why? Uncertainty does not allow us to make
  forecast but still exploring trends under what
  if conditions is very relevant
• Why use MA scenarios as a basis
• Most up-to-date global scenario assessment
• Comprehensive scenarios
• MA found agriculture to be one of the most
  important factors both in improving
  human-wellbeing and causing ecological stress

9
What are the consequences of plausible changes in
development paths for ecosystems and their
services over the next 50 years and what will be
the consequences of those changes for human
well-being?
10
CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK
Development Sustainability Goals

Decreased hunger and poverty

Improved nutrition and human health

Sustainable economic development

Enhanced livelihoods and equity
Strategies and interventions

Environmental sustainability
Strategies and interventions
Indirect Drivers
Direct Drivers

Economic (demand, markets,..)

Availability, management of

Demographic (urbanization,..)
natural resources, inc. land and
Strategies and Interventions

Education, Culture, Ethics
water, and biodiversity
Strategies and Interventions

Sociopolitical

Climate change

Infrastructure

Labor

Science and Technology

Energy

Agricultural
KST

AKST use
Access, control distribution
Research Policy
-
Extension / Dissemination
IPR
-
Credit/Capital/Assets
Local institutional
-
Access/Knowledge markets
generation of AKST
-
Inputs, such as agro
-
chemicals
11
Lay out of the chapter

• 4.2 Development of indirect drivers
• Economic
• Population
• Socio-political
• Education
• Science and Technology development
• 4.3 Development of direct drivers
• Consumption patterns
• Land use
• Natural resources
• Energy
• Climate change and air pollution
• 4.4 Development of agricultural production
  systems and AKST adaptation
• 4.5 Review of available tools for modelling

12
Identify and contrast characteristics of
Agriculture-Food Systems and AKST in four
scenarios to 2050
Chapter 5 Storylines for Future Scenarios

• Characteristics of 2 Axes
• Major actors and organizations
• Typical structures
• Key characteristics of AKST
• Other issues

13
Trade Liberalization, Decreases in Agricultural
Protectionism
Global
Global Orchestration
Techno Garden
Reactive
Proactive

Regional
Order from Strength
Adapting Mosaic
Trade Restrictions, Maintaining national or
regional protections
14
Major Actors
Global

• International market focus
• Multinational corporations
• and cooperatives

• International market focus
• Multinational corporations
• Small startups
• International regulators

Reactive
Proactive

• Focus on national and trading block markets
• State trading companies
• National corporations

• Focus on local regional markets
• Small businesses coops
• Coordination through
• networks

Regional
15
Global

• Focus on ecosystem services
• Payments for ecosystem services
• Vertical integration
• High supply chain efficiency
• More diversity in production systems

• Focus on food
• High factor productivity
• Vertical integration from farm to table
• High supply chain efficiency
• Low diversity in production
• systems

Structure
Proactive
Reactive

• Focus on ecosystem services
• food quality
• Local adaptation provide ecosystem services
• Horizontal supply integration through
• local/regional markets
• Diversity in production systems
• higher quality in available food products

• Focus on food and food security
• Lower factor productivity
• Lower supply chain efficiency due to emphasis on
  security
• Less diversity and quality in available food
  products

Regional
16
AKST
Global

• Focus on efficiency
• Major driver is market incentives for food
• Multinationals conduct applied RD,extension
• Public-private partnerships for upstream research
• Strong IP protection
• Knowledge generation through
• formal research structures

Proactive

• Focus on systems
• Major driver is quality of life
• Decentralized organizations partner with local
• producers, processors, sellers
• IP protection relaxed
• Knowledge generation through action and
• adaptive research

Reactive
Regional
17
Global

• Focus on technology
• Major driver is market incentives for ecosystem
  services
• Global networked research organizations conduct
  upstream research on ecosystem services
• Strong IP protection but more emphasis on public
  goods
• Start up companies do development, new product
  extension

AKST
Reactive
Proactive

• Focus on productivity
• Major driver is food self-sufficiency
• National universities governments conduct basic
  applied research extension
• Fewer resources
• IP protection weakened
• Knowledge generation through formal research
  structures

Regional
18
Other Issues, Storylines

• What happens to small farmers
• Innovations
• Incorporating more regional specificity
• Cross cutting issues
• Shocks
• Climate change

19
DETAILED OUTLINE, CHAPTER 6
6.0) Quantification of Drivers and
Qualitative/Quantitative Modeling Tools
Chosen 6.1) Implications of AKST Across the
Scenarios 6.2) Implications for Human
Well-Being, Poverty and Equity 6.3) Implications
for HWB - Hunger and Food Security 6.4)
Implications for HWB - Water maybe delete 6.5)
Implications for Environmental
Sustainability 6.6) Synergies and Tradeoffs
- Sensitivity analysis for GO/AM based on
synergy and trade-off description
20
BRIEF MODEL DESCRIPTION
IMAGE MODEL

• Exogenous variables population, world economy,
  agricultural economy (from IMPACT)
• Other variables yield gap, food and feed demand
  (from IMPACT), livestock (regional IMAGE gets
  animal production from IMPACT)
• Output land-use, crop productivity (7 types),
  potential productivity
• Model related pasture land, forestry model
  iteration, soil degradation, biofuels,
  fertilizer, biodiversity

21
BRIEF MODEL DESCRIPTION
GTEM-CGE MODEL

• Based on optimization, market clearing
• Regions linked through trade and investment flows
  (18 regions)
• Emissions (CO2, methane, NOX) by source
  (fertilizer use, livestock, agriculture)
• Land-use allocated by demand (18 agro-ecological
  zones in GTAP)
• Outputs emissions by source, land-use allocated
  by demand

22
BRIEF MODEL DESCRIPTION
GENDER-CGE MODEL (G-CGE, India)

• Inputs agricultural crops, prices, trade,
  output at the global level for each sector
  (public, private, services, fertilizer, other
  manufacturing)
• Exogenous rural poor non-agricultural/agricultur
  al, urban poor, non-poor non-agricultural/agricult
  ural, urban non-poor
• Shocks labor supply, agricultural productivity,
  investments
• Outputs casual and agricultural workers (M and
  F), GDP, supply of labor, gender distribution

23
BRIEF MODEL DESCRIPTION
CAPSIM MODEL

• Overview
• Currently linked with GTAP
• Several iterations to other CGE and Partial
  equilibrium models
• Better than GTAP as it is more disaggregated
• 19 commodities
• 31 regions
• Input variables - land-use changes/agricultural
  land-use from IMAGE, wages, fertilizer
  (international and domestic) from GTEM,
  international community agricultural prices, GDP
  and technology factor from IMPACT, fisheries
  (total fish from fish model), no fisheries,
  rural-urban projections from IIASA
• Output - crop production figures to IMPACT,
  production, trade, demand/ disaggregated demand,
  domestic price, regional incomes

24
BRIEF MODEL DESCRIPTION
IMPACT-WATER MODEL

• Detailed partial equilibrium model of
  agricultural sector with exogenous capital growth
• Highly disaggregated agricultural commodities (39
  commodities including cereals, soybeans, roots
  tubers, meats, milk, eggs, oils, oilcakes
  meals, sugar sweeteners, fruits vegetables,
  and fish)
• Disaggregated spatial allocation of crop
  production at sub-national level (281 units)
• Details on physical use of land and water, trade
  policies, with resulting international trade
• World food prices are determined annually at
  levels that clear international commodity markets
• Iterative year-by-year demand, supply, trade
  equilibration
• Output indicator calorie availability, PC
  malnutrition, PC water consumption, yield growth
  and total production, area

25
BRIEF MODEL DESCRIPTION
ECO-OCEAN MODEL

• Overview
• Ecosystem based model
• 2 phased, 19 FAO areas (no political boundaries
  associated with the regions)
• 42 trophic groups per area
• Input data trophic level, existing databases on
  marine mammals, FAO landings database, fish
  product demand, changes in prices, CC, DD from
  IMPACT
• Output - fish production in the 19 FAO areas,
  total landings, value of landings, labor, landing
  diversity indicators, marine trophic index
  later?
• Notes
• Model is driven by effort (synonymous with
  demand)
• Demand figures obtained from IMPACT - knowing
  where demand may be would allow EO to change
  effort in one on the 19 areas

26
Population
Forest
Human Well- being
Macroeconomy
Food Supply, Demand, Trade
Land use change
Investments
Environ-mental Outcomes
Productivity
Energy/Biofuels
Fertilizer
AKST
Water
Other inputs
Climate Biodiversity (pollinators) Ozone
(tropospheric) Acidification N-deposition
CAPSIM Partial ag eq model, China CGE-G
Gender-differentiated CGE, India IMAGE
Integrated Assessment Model IMPACT-W Partial ag
eq model and water simulation GTEM
Global CGE Livestock growth models GTM
Forest land use and timber demand ECO-Ocean
Fisheries model
27
MODEL OUTPUT INDICATORS
28
MODEL OUTPUT INDICATORS
29
MODEL OUTPUT INDICATORS
30
KEY QUANTIFIED DRIVERS SELECTED RESULTS

• Drivers Review of drivers, decision on what can
  be quantified/remains qualitative Population and
  Income Growth from MA technology change, based
  on MA used for first set of results
• Results Based on two global models (IMPACT and
  IMAGE)

31
Population Growth
32
Per Capita Income Growth
33
Meat Production - GO and TG Scenarios
34
Grain Production - GO and TG Scenarios
35
Meat Demand - GO and TG Scenarios
36
Total Per Capita Grain Demand and Food Grain
Demand - GO and TG Scenarios
37
World Food Prices GO and TG Scenarios
38
World Food Prices GO and TG Scenarios
39
World Food Prices GO and TG Scenarios
40
IMAGE as part of quantitative group
MA (but possibly checked by CGE)

Change in GDP, population others (i.e.
scenario assumptions)
IMPACT
41
MODEL OUTPUT INDICATORS
42
MODEL OUTPUT INDICATORS
43
Taken from IMPACT
MODEL OUTPUT INDICATORS
44
(No Transcript)
45
(No Transcript)
46
(No Transcript)
47
(No Transcript)
48
(No Transcript)
49
High climate sensitivity
GO
TG
Low climate sensitivity
50
(climate impacts)
Temperate cereals India
Low climate sensitivity
TG
High climate sensitivity
GO