Modeling of Future DPRK Energy Paths Draft

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Modeling of Future DPRK Energy Paths (Draft)

• Dr. David F. Von Hippel
• Nautilus Institute Senior Associate
• Prepared for the DPRK Energy Expert Study Group
  Meeting, Stanford University, California
• June 26 - 27, 2006

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DPRK ENERGY PATHS OUTLINE OF PRESENTATION

• Preparation and Analysis of Energy Paths for the
  DPRKNational and Regional
• Goals and philosophy in preparing paths
• Overall Approach and Scope
• Descriptions of Paths Considered
• Recent Trends Path
• Redevelopment Path
• Sustainable Development Path
• Regional Alternative Path

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DPRK ENERGY PATHS OUTLINE OF PRESENTATION

• Selected Details of Modeling Approach by Path
• Selected Draft Results of Analysis of Future
  Energy Paths for the DPRK
• Energy Demand
• Fuel Supply/Transformation
• Energy Imports and Exports
• Costs
• Environmental Emissions
• Initial Lessons Learned from Analysis, and Next
  Steps in Analysis of Energy Futures for the DPRK

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PREPARATION AND ANALYSIS OF DPRK ENERGY PATHS

• Goals of Paths Analysis
• Assemble plausible, internally-consistent
  alternative energy paths for the DPRK, based on
  the best information available
• Explore, in a quantitative manner whenever
  possible (but not exclusively) relative energy
  security implications of different paths,
  including implications of NEA energy sector
  cooperation
• Use energy paths as focus, starting point for
  discussions of how regional/other actors might
  assist in sustainable re-development of DPRK
  energy sector

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PREPARATION AND ANALYSIS OF DPRK ENERGY PATHS

• Philosophy in Paths Preparation/Evaluation
• Design paths that are plausible, and, under the
  right conditions, potentially achievable
• At the same time, paths shown are not intended in
  any way to judge what should happen
• Paths are built upon best, most
  internally-consistent DPRK information we can
  find, but there are undoubtedly many inaccuracies
  in the analysis
• We look forward to working with DPRK colleagues
  to improve analysis, make more applicable
• Paths are therefore a starting point for further
  discussion and analysis

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PREPARATION AND ANALYSIS OF DPRK ENERGY PATHS

• Overall Approach in Paths Preparation/Evaluation
• Start with DPRK LEAP dataset that includes
  several paths evaluated briefly in previous work
• Update data set to reflect most recent Nautilus
  estimates of 1990 - 2005 DPRK energy use (overall
  analysis period for paths, 1990 to 2030)
• Develop overall themes for several (4 -5 or
  more) paths to be evaluated
• Identify specific assumptions for use in
  implementing the themes within LEAP
• Modify paths so that all paths have the same 2006
  energy picture

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PREPARATION AND ANALYSIS OF DPRK ENERGY PATHS

• Overall Approach in Paths Preparation/Evaluation
• Prepare demand-side data entries (and document
  assumptions in Excel workbook)
• Enter demand-side assumptions in LEAP
• De-bug demand-side datasets
• Prepare approximate supply-side data entries (and
  document in Excel workbook)
• Enter supply-side assumptions in LEAP, calculate,
  and modify parameters so that supply and demand
  balance
• Enter cost and environmental data for all paths
• Run all paths, check results, debug, re-run, and
  evaluate relative demand, transformation, cost,
  environmental results of paths

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DPRK Energy Paths Considered
POLITICAL STALEMATE IS.
NOT RESOLVED
RESOLVED
REDEVELOPMENT CASE Revitalization,
re-mechanization, infrastructure upgraded
RECENT TRENDS CASE Economy opens a very
little, aid flows modest, infrastructure erodes
SUSTAINABLE DEV. CASE Redevelopment plus
emphasis on energy efficiency, renewables
REGIONAL ALTERNATIVE CASE Redevelopment plus
regional projects
COLLAPSE CASE Economy and regime fails (not
quantitatively modeled)
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DPRK ENERGY PATHS CONSIDERED

• Redevelopment Path
• Used as National Reference path for DPRK
• Current political stalemate solved within next
  few years, DPRK receives international
  assistance/cooperation in redevelopment
• Industrial sector is revitalized, but mostly not
  rebuilt as it was before
• More iron and steel from scrap, efficiency
  improvements in heavy industry sectors
• Industrial restructuring, with emphasis on
  industries such as textiles, fertilizer
• Natural gas begins to be used in industry 2015

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DPRK ENERGY PATHS CONSIDERED

• Redevelopment Path (continued)
• Considerable increase in new light-industrial
  production (IT, auto parts, joint ventures)
• Increase in diesel, electricity use for light
  industry
• Agricultural sector re-mechanized
• Cropped area decreases, but electricity, oil use
  in agriculture increases (coal/biomass use
  decreases)
• Increase in residential electricity consumption
• Commercial sector expands rapidly
• Transport sector, particularly personal
  transport, expands markedly

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DPRK ENERGY PATHS CONSIDERED

• Redevelopment Path (continued)
• Investment in new electricity infrastructure
• New coal, gas combined-cycle, small hydro
• Some rehabilitation of older plants, particularly
  hydro existing coal plants retired over time
• Simpo reactors completed 2013 (export power)
• Re-investment in East Coast refinery
• Natural gas, first as LNG, begins to play a role
  in powering industry, electricity, cities
  starting 2012
• Smaller LNG terminal built (Nampo?), part of
  output exported

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DPRK ENERGY PATHS CONSIDERED

• Recent Trends Path
• Assumes that current political difficulties
  remain, or are addressed only very slowly
• DPRK economy opens a very little, aid flows
  modest, infrastructure erodes
• Very gradual increase in industrial output
• Transport activity increases slowly
• Civilian auto transport grows most
• Residential energy demand increases slowly
• Electricity gradually more available
• Some agricultural re-mechanization, incr. inputs

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DPRK ENERGY PATHS CONSIDERED

• Recent Trends Path (continued)
• Transmission and distribution losses remain high
• 10 MW of small hydro power plants added/yr
• Total capacity at existing hydro and oil-fired
  power plants changes little over time
• Coal-fired capacity meets net electricity demand
  after hydro, oil-fired plant output factored in
• Simpo nuclear reactors not completed
• Oil/oil products imported (except HFO) at year
  2000 levels
• West Coast refineries continue to operate

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DPRK ENERGY PATHS CONSIDERED

• Sustainable Development Path
• Same energy services as Redevelopment Pathwith
  same demographic assumptions, economic
  outputbut
• Applies energy efficiency, renewable energy,
  other measures, in an aggressive fashion
• Upgrading of industrial infrastructure goes above
  average standards to high-efficiency
  international standards
• Rapid phase-out of existing coal-fired power
  plants.
• Earlier addition of LNG (liquefied natural gas)
  terminal and gas CC (combined cycle) generating
  plants

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DPRK ENERGY PATHS CONSIDERED

• Sustainable Development Path (continued)
• Costs
• Cost estimates included for all demand end-uses,
  transformation processes, and fuels whose use
  changes relative to the Redevelopment case

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DPRK ENERGY PATHS CONSIDERED

• Regional Alternative Path
• Demand-sector Modifications
• As a result of regional cooperation, efficiency
  improvement targets reached two years earlier at
  costs 10 less than in Sustainable Development
  path
• Transformation-sector Modifications
• Gas pipeline from RFE begins operation in 2011
  3 of gas used in DPRK initially, 10 by 2020,
  15 by 2030
• DPRK gets 10 million/yr rent for hosting the
  pipeline
• Larger LNG facility installed (also shared with
  ROK)
• Power line from the Russian Far East through the
• Participation in regional cooperative activities
  in energy

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DPRK ENERGY PATHS CONSIDERED

• Regional Alternative Path (continued)
• Transformation-sector Modifications (continued)
• Cooperation in renewable energy technologies
  yield earlier deployment,10 reduction in cost of
  wind, small hydro technologies
• Last of existing coal-fired plants retired by
  2020
• Sustainable Development/Regional Alternative Path
  Costs
• Cost estimates included for all demand end-uses,
  transformation processes, and fuels whose use
  changes relative to the Redevelopment case

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DPRK ENERGY PATHS SELECTED DRAFT RESULTS
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DPRK ENERGY PATHS SELECTED DRAFT RESULTS
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DPRK ENERGY PATHS SELECTED DRAFT RESULTS
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DPRK ENERGY PATHS SELECTED DRAFT RESULTS
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DPRK ENERGY PATHS SELECTED DRAFT RESULTS
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DPRK ENERGY PATHS SELECTED DRAFT RESULTS
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DPRK ENERGY PATHS SELECTED DRAFT RESULTS
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DPRK ENERGY PATHS SELECTED DRAFT RESULTS
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DPRK ENERGY PATHS SELECTED DRAFT RESULTS
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LESSONS LEARNED/NEXT STEPS IN PATHS ANALYSIS

• Lessons learned
• Significant cost, environmental benefits to
  helping DPRK achieve sustainable
  development/regional alternative-type paths
• Next Steps
• Comprehensive energy security analysis
• Evaluate alternative nuclear energy paths
• Engage DPRK delegations in modeling exercises
  (requiring capacity and database building.)

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• THANK YOU!