Planning Water Scenarios

1
Planning Water Scenarios

• Yoginder K. Alagh

2
Introduction

• Water Demand in the Agricultural Sub Model
  Iterative Procedures Demand, population, income,
  income redistributionSupply Modelling is on
  land, water and technologyconservative
  assumptions.(origin in food scarcity so fail safe
  planning)
• Long Term Modelling little attention in futures
  scenarios but in work of The Commission on Long
  Term Perspectives, population, land and water
  projections emerging from planning and
  agro-climatic perspectives

3
Demand Modelling

• Demand Modelling in Indian Planning is done by
  preparing income and price elasticities. Price
  elasticities are estimated by Complete Demand
  Systems. This system was developed by the Task
  Force on Minimum Needs and Effective Demand which
  developed Indias Poverty Line in the Seventies.
  It was chaired by the present author and is still
  in use. Income elasticities are developed using
  best fitting Engel Curves.
• The recommendations of the Alagh Task Force were
  based on one of the most detailed demand and
  income distribution studies done anywhere in the
  world. Taking account of household budgetary
  survey data, price information and aggregate
  consumption patterns, it developed the income and
  price response of both poor and rich households
  separately in rural and urban areas. This work
  started a tradition of econometric investigation
  which has continued Table 1 below gives some
  recent estimates. )

4
Econometric Price Elasticities

• Table 1.
• Price Elasticities 1998
• Commodity Rural
  Urban
• Below Poverty Line Above Poverty
  Line Below Poverty above povty
• Cereals -0.530 -0.161
  -0.430 -0.099
• Edible oils-0.794 -0.589
  -0.799 -0.417
• Sugar -0.941 -0.800
  -0.740 -0.294
• Source Ravi, C. (2001), Complete Demand System,
  Welfare and Nutrition An Analysis of Indian
  Consumption Data, Phd dissertation, Centre for
  Economic and Social Studies, Hyderabad

5
Drivers

• In this method the demand drivers are
• Population Projections
• Income Growth
• Redistribution of Income Anti poverty programmes
• For econometric details see
• Government of India, Planning Commission, PPD,
  Report of the Task Force on Projections of
  Minimum Needs and Effective Consumption Demand,
  Manager of Publications, Delhi, 1979.
• A more formal presentation is given in a model of
  growth in a fairly well known feschtrift to Jan
  Tinbergen edited by Cohen, Cornillise, Teekens
  and Thorbecke.See Y.K.Alagh, S.P.Kashyap and
  G.V.S.N.Murthy,Policy Modelling for Planning in
  India, in S.I.Cohen, P.A.Cornillise, R.Teekens
  and E. Thorbecke, The Modelling of Socio-Economic
  Planning Processes, Gower, Aldershot, 1984, pp.
  59-90..

6
A Typical Exercise!!

• 
  Table 10
• Projected Food Requirements and Production
  during 2000 to 2020
• YearPopulation Food Demand Net Food Demand
  AdditionalDemand
• (1) (2) (3)
  (4) (5)
  (mn. Tonnes)
• 2000 1012.66 188.5
  179.7 8.8
• 2005 1087.46 202.3
  192.5 9.9
• 2010 1152.16 214.3
  205.1 9.1
• 2015 1211.67 225.7
  217.9 7.4
• 2020 1271.17 236.6
  230.6 5.9

7
A Scenario

• Another Way
• Food
• We have obtained projected figures of net food
  production (i.e., by excluding the amount used
  for cattle feed, seeds and waste from gross food
  production) by assuming that the average rate of
  growth in agricultural production observed during
  the period from 1971 to 1999 would persist in
  future years. Comparisons of projected net food
  production figures with those of food requirement
  calculated, as explained in the footnote of Table
  10, for the projected population shows that there
  will be a deficit in food production of the order
  of 8 to 9 million tonnes. This deficit, however,
  reduces to 6 million tonnes towards the end of
  the projection period.
• Food requirement norm is based on 2250 calories
  daily per capita, a norm recommended by FAO as
  well as by the National Commission on Agriculture
  for the developing countries (Bhatia 1983). This
  implies a per capita requirement of 186 Kg. per
  year.
• Projected food production figures were obtained
  by extrapolating using linear trend growth
  obtained from production data from 1971 to 1999.

8
The AGRICULTURAL Sub Model

• This was built in days of food security concerns,
  but its structure is still there in the Technical
  Note to the Plans. It should be understood as a
  method of reasoning since ideas change slowly
• In the Seventies think tanks( See Keith Griffin,
  1971 and Francine Frankel, 1971 ) and the
  Brettonwoods institutions had an extremely dim
  view of Indias agricultural and growth
  prospects. At the IDS Sussex, Paul Streeten and
  Michael Lipton also argued that India had dim
  medium term growth prospects since agriculture
  would lead to a wage goods constraint. The
  initial spurt of grain growth had petered out and
  the green revolution was seen as a misnomer .
  Indias grain production was projected to go upto
  116 million tonnes in 1973/74 and then to 140
  million tonnes by the end seventies. But after
  reaching 108 million tonnes in 1971, it was
  ranging between 101 to 104 million tonnes in the
  early seventies. It was at this time that policy
  making in India focussed on priority in resource
  allocation to agriculture with priorities set at
  the level of the Prime Minister Indira Gandhi who
  saw food security as central issue. The Planning
  Commission produced its first Agricultural
  Sub-Model .(with the present author organising
  the effort ) and this model made conservative
  assumptions on land reserves and productivity
  assumptions so that resource allocation for
  agriculture got high priority in the investment
  budget.

9
Experience and Methods

• Features of Indian agricultural experience in the
  early 1970s ( the PPD-JNU study by Bhalla and
  Alagh used District level data to work out
  sources of growth ) were used for Indian
  agricultural policy making and planning.
  Therefore the first "Agricultural Sub-Model" of
  the Fifth Five Year Plan (1974-79) prepared in
  1975 argued
• that State level data corroborates the findings
  of earlier disaggregative studies that in certain
  regions of the country foodgrains growth is
  primarily explained by factors, such as
  irrigation on multiple cropping, while in other
  pockets it is due to the water-seed-fertilizers
  technology. (See Alagh, 1979 in GOI, PPD, 1979,
  p. 22).
• and again for IRRIGATION
• growth of gross irrigated area is also given a
  critical role in determining the growth of gross
  cropped area as in the National Commission on
  Agriculture's Report.... For the country as a
  whole and for all crops it was estimated that a
  one per cent increase in irrigated area would
  lead to a 0.20 per cent increase in gross cropped
  area.... The estimate of increase in gross
  cropped area which is derived from the emphasis
  on irrigation, using past behaviour as indicated
  above would yield a growth rate of 0.8 per cent
  per annum in the Fifth Five Year Plan and upto
  1980/81 and by about 0.6 per cent per annum upto
  1988/89. The given estimate is considered to be
  feasible. (GOI, PPD, 1979, pp. 22-23).

10
Land and Irrigation

• It can be briefly recapitulated here that this
  strategy essentially consists of studies of past
  production patterns and with respect to certain
  behavioural and structural constraints, such as
  cropped area and its allocation, the continuance
  of past patterns is postulated in order to
  preserve a realistic frame for the supply
  projections. However, the emphasis in the
  planning aspect is on the provision of critical
  inputs which would sustain the generation of
  additional production potential. Thus, as
  compared to earlier exercises, the gross cropped
  area is now postulated to increase only by 0.7
  per cent compound per annum. Increase in cropped
  area has shown a strong relationship, through
  multiple cropping, with the provision of
  irrigation facilities. The growth of irrigation
  facilities at the rate of approximately 4 per
  annum compound in the Fifth Five Year Plan and
  beyond is bound to sustain the increase in
  cropping area being postulated at present. Based
  on technical advice and study of the experience
  from the last few years, the area to be brought
  under the high yielding varieties of seeds has
  been carefully postulated. The yield levels by
  each crop under high yielding variety irrigated
  land, other irrigated land and unirrigated lands
  postulated to remain at the level estimated by
  the National Sample Survey's crop cutting
  experiments for the triennium 1970/ 71 to
  1972/73. For the spread of irrigation facilities
  and achieving the targets sufficient funds have
  to be provided. Similar attention has to be paid
  to minor irrigation. The current status of ground
  water exploration has to be accelerated. In many
  arid regions of the country, such effort has been
  lacking in the past.
• They production potential is estimated through
  this methodology. (GOI, PPD, 1979, P. 47)

11
Policies

• The importance given to these planning studies
  was shown by the fact that in 1975, after the
  budget, funds for completing ten irrigation
  projects and for financing a ground water
  extraction programme in a supplementary
  allocation in May 1975. The Indian policy
  makers,based on past sources of growth studies
  confidently predicted in 1975 that the Indian
  farmer, once given support would take the
  countrys grain production to 125 million tones
  in 1978/79. Fertiliser consumption which had gone
  down after the energy crisis to 2.8 million tones
  was postulated to rise to 5 million tonnes. These
  targets were treated with derision and the
  comments outside India were that it was only the
  long haired boys in the Indian Planning
  Commission who believed them. It was predicted
  that India would produce 116-118 million tonnes
  of grain and many in India including in policy
  making positions supported them. Actually in
  1978/79 India produced 127 million tonnes of
  grain and its fertiliser consumption was 5.2
  million tonnes

12
Diversification

• Recent models show the impact of demand
  diversification
• In response to higher growth, India has seen
  growth and diversification of its food basket.
  The 1980s and 1990s record a much faster growth
  of agro-based consumption in the Indian demand
  basket. For example, per capita consumption of
  sugar goes up from 6.2 in 1975-76 to 14.9
  kgs./year. (Table 2) and that level is not only
  much higher than in comparable countries, but
  also than in countries which have much higher
  levels of per capita income. Also, there has
  been a very rapid increase in consumption of
  non-crop based commodities like eggs and milk..
  Egg consumption per capita goes up from 15 to 30
  per year in the period of 1975-98. Thus, as shown
  in my Lal Bahadur Shastri Lecture, expansion and
  diversification of the consumption basket is
  basically driven by a higher growth performance
  in the 1980s.

13
Diversification Trends

• Per Capita Consumption of Agricultural Processed
  Commodities in India
• S. No .Commodity 1955/56 1975/76
  1990/91 1998/9
• 1. Food grains
• (per capita kgs/year) 155.6 158.5
  180.6 176.7
• .2.Edible oil and
• vanaspati, (kgs/yr) 3.2
  4.6. 5.1 7.1
• 3.Sugar (kgs/yr) 5.0 6.2
  12.5 14.9
• 4.Textiles (cotton
• equivalents) (meters/yr) 14.4 17.6
  24.8 28.2
• . 5.Tea (kgs/yr) 0.36
  0.45 0.61 0.68
• 6.Milk (ltrs/day) 4.7
  4.6 6.3 7.5
• 7.Eggs (nos/mo) 5.3
  15.5 26.0 30.4
• --------------------------------------------------
  -------------------------------------------Sources
  1 Economic Survey, 2000-01, Vol. 2, pages S-24,
  S-2
• 2. Y.K. Alagh, Shastri Lecture, ICAR, Landmarks
  in Indian Agriculture, New Delhi, ICAR, 1994, pp.
  178-99.

14
Population

• There is need for caution in population figures
  used as drivers. In earlier estimates used for
  global forecasts population figures were expected
  to go up from 856 million in 1991/92 to 938
  million in 1996/97, showing an annual average
  growth rate of 1.8 (Table 1). If the growth
  rate remained around 2, this figure would go up
  to 955 million. ( See Alagh, 1995 and Kumar,
  Saxena, Alagh and Mitra, 2000 ) According to
  indications then it was argued that the actual
  figure would be in between these two figures
  since the death rate had fallen below even the
  2000 target, but the birth rate was below target,
  hence population growth would be around 1.9. the
  estimated population would be around 1016 million
  in 2000/01 and in any case will be below the rate
  of around 2 as estimated by the earlier UN
  projections, of around 1042 million in that year.
  These developments have now been taken into
  account by the UN and the 1998 revised population
  projections of the UN estimate Indias population
  in 2000/01 at 101.37 million. As of March 2001,
  the Census estimate of the population was 102.7
  million persons. If India was able to achieve a
  population growth rate of around 1.6 in the
  decade 2000/01 to 2010/2011, its population would
  reach 1171 million, if the Planning Commission
  projections were used as a base. Even if this
  target was exceeded the figure would be less than
  1224 million as estimated by the UN earlier.

15
Revisions

• The revised UN projections are now 115.22
  million. For the year 2020/21, the UN projections
  are now 127.22 million. These projections have
  not incorporated the details of the 2001 census.
  The Registrar-General's Working Group on
  Population Projections set up conventionally by
  the Planning Commission, will have to firm up
  these alternative conjectural projections, in
  terms of underlying fertility, mortality and
  expected life span behaviour, by age-group and
  rural-urban categories. The details of recent
  population projections and changes in them have
  been outlined to show that there is a level of
  tentativeness about the available population
  projections and the detailed country level
  projections are necessary. For large countries,
  attention to detail is necessary, since
  differences can have substantial impact as we
  have seen and this in turn can influence
  substantive issues and judgements. For the
  purpose of this study UN projections given by the
  UNU/IAS have been used. ( Table 2. )

16
Revised projections

• Table 2
• UN Population Projections
• Year Population (million)
• (1) (2)
• 2000 1012.66
• 2005 1087.46
• 2010 1152.16
• 2015 1211.67
• 2020 1271.17

17
Land

• The other major category needing examination in
  this kind of perspective is the land or resource
  base of the economy. The Planning Commission has
  correctly projected that the net area sown or
  arable land of the country will remain constant
  at 141 million hectares.
• Growth in net area sown at around 1 annual in
  the early period of planning fell to around 0.6
  and then to 0.3 in subsequent decades and is now
  not growing at all. It is reasonable to assume
  that the geographical area of the country or the
  extensive land frontier for exploitation has
  reached its limits.
• This is an important issue, the implications of
  which are not being realised with the urgency
  they deserve, since at a basic level resource
  constraints of a more severe kind faced by
  certain East Asian economies are now being
  approached in India. Organisations, communities,
  households and individuals will have to grasp
  this fact and live with it.

18
Intensity

• The intensive frontier for land use, however,
  remains. It has been known for example that
  cropping intensity depends on irrigation. Thus
  gross cropped area or harvested area has been
  shown in the past to be strongly determined
  statistically, in an econometric sense, by net
  irrigated area and irrigation intensity.
  Irrigation permits the possibility of multiple
  cropping by bringing additional land under
  cultivation and the same land to be used more
  than once. Also the application of new
  technologies in the past was related to assured
  water supply. The new technology, on account of
  its photo insensitivity properties, permits
  shorter duration crops, which also is associated
  with increase in cropping intensity. ( For
  details of this relationship in agricultural
  planning and policy models, see Alagh, ESCAP,
  1983 ).

19
Earlier Econometrics

• The use of this relationship has been used in
  Indian agricultural policy and plan models, since
  the mid-Seventies when the first agricultural
  sub-model of Indian planning was formulated for
  grain self reliance ( See Alagh, et. al.,
  Planning Commission, 1979 ). The parameters used
  in different plans were as follows
• Sr. Plan Additional Additional
  Elasticity of
• No. Irrigation Cropped
  GCA w.r.t.
• Utilisation Area
  GIA
• (mn. hec.) (mn. hec.)
• 0 1 2 3
  4
• 1 Fifth 9.11 6.04
  0.20
• Sixth 13.80 11.74
  0.26
• Seventh(O) 10.90 10.00
  0.31
• Seventh 9.50 7.60
  0.24

20
Now

• In the Nineties as we noted arable area has
  stopped growing and so the land constraint is far
  more severe. Growth will now have to be sourced
  from double cropping and yields.
• These fundamental relationships are used to
  project the intensive resource base of the
  economy. Table 1 shows that by the end of the
  decade India would have used up most of its
  balance water reserves, with the irrigated area
  reaching around 114 million hectares by 2010. (
  See Alagh, 1995, p. 395 and table, below ). The
  projections for 2020 are a requirement of
  irrigation of 122 million hectares for irrigation
  ( K. Chopra and B. Golder, Table 2.6 )

21
Resource Balances

• LAND AND WATER RESOURCES IN PERSPECTIVE
• Sl No Variable 1991/2 1996/72001/22006/7
• 1.Population (millions)
• a. Planning Commission?856 938 1016? 1099
• b. UN ( Unrevised ) 874? 955 1042 1130?
• 2.Net Area Sown (mn. hec.)
• a. Planning Commission estimate140 141 141 141
• Revised 141141141
• 3.Gross area sown (mn. hec.)
• a. Planning Commission estimate182 191 197 203
• Revised 183 191 197
  205
• 4.Gross Irrigated Area (mn. hec.)
• a Planning Commission estimate76 89 102 114
• Revised 64
  78 92 107

22
Balances and Intensities

• 5.Cropping Intensity
• a. Planning
• Commission
• estimate1.30 1.35 1.40 1.44
• Revised 1.301.35 1.40 1.45
• 6.Gross Irrigated Area as of Gross Area Sown
• a. Planning Commission estimate
  41.5 46.9 51.7 56.
• 1b. Revised
• 35.0 41 46 51
• Source Uma Lele, Y.K. Alagh,et.al., Forestry in
  India An Evaluation, Washington, World bank,
  2000, Annex H

23
The Message

• The analysis strongly suggests simultaneous
  action on surface water development, both large
  and small projects, ground water and conjunctive
  use and efficiency in water use. Or India is in
  serious trouble. Another way of looking at the
  severe land constraint is to see that a net area
  sown per person will go down from around 0.17
  hectare to around 0.10 hectares. Gross area sown
  per person currently around 0.2 hectares will
  even, if cropping intensity increases very
  rapidly, go down to around 0.15 - 0.18 hectares.

24
Outcomes 2020

• The projections assume a vastly improved
  performance on the land and water management
  frontiers. It needs to be remembered that the
  balance ground water reserves are now more
  limited. A very dramatic effort will be needed to
  harvest and carefully use the available water.
  Otherwise, the projected increase in cropping
  intensity will simply not take place. Cropping
  intensity increased from around 1.18 at the
  beginning of the Seventies to around 1.3 in the
  early Nineties. In the next two decades, this
  effort needs to be considerably strengthened, so
  that cropping intensity can increase from 1.3 to
  1.5. Harvesting of rainwater, recycling water
  from agricultural drainage systems, more
  judicious use of water for cropping, will all be
  required. Non-agricultural use of water will have
  to be far more economical. The detailed exercise
  done for this study requires that in the
  sustainable scenario 35.83 BCM of water are saved
  by conjunctive use of surface and groundwater and
  142 BCM through harvesting of runoff. ( Chopra
  and Golder, Table 2.6 )

25
Another Tradition

• In 1987 the Planning Commission started work on
  an agro-climatic strategy (ACRP) for Indian
  agriculture. Land and water were important parts
  of this strategy. ( See References )
• The Plans now have a bifocal approach reflecting
  both the approach in the Agricultural Sub Model
  and the ACRP

26
ACRP

• The categories behind agro-economic zoning, are
  of soil land type, water and climate. Climate
  here refers to weather i.e. temperature and
  rainfall ( both levels and variation ). Water is
  both surface and ground. These concepts have been
  described well by geographers and a classic
  description is by the Russian academician Dr.
  Galina Sadasyuk ( See Alagh, 1991 for a detailed
  discussion ). G. Sadasyuk and P. Sengupta, ( 1968
  ) for example, divided India into 18
  agro-climatic zones and 44 sub-regions. ( See
  Alagh, 1988 and Planning Commission, 1989 ).
  Similar exercizes have been developed in other
  large countries, for example, Brazil, Indonesia
  and even France ( See Ignacy Sachs, 1991, Lutfi
  Nasution, 1993 ).
• The I ndian Agro Climatic Planning Exercise built
  up targets from a sub-zonal level on
• Area to be brought under tank irrigation through
  renovation and/or fresh construction
• Area to be covered by a canal distribution rehab
  and renovation project
• Ground water abstraction possibilities

27
The Vision

• Assuming very optimistic policies A Blue Ribbon
  Commission on Water Perspectives, which followed
  the approaches indicated above has projected
  balanced demand/supplies in 2025. These include
• Improvement in irrigation efficiencies above 60
  from existing levels of less than 40
• Conjunctive use and aquifier management
• Demand management and rationalisation of cropping
  patterns
• Much greater priority to resource allocation to
  the water sector
• Improved project management and phasing
• Watershed development.
• But separately its scholarly chairman has
  projected a shortage of 25 in a trend forecast.
  A recent UNU study by Y.K.Alagh and Kirit Parikh
  has also projected problems and at the regional
  level worse

28
The Perspective

• Water Requirement for Different Uses
• S.No
• Uses/year Year2010 Year2025 Year2050
• Low High Low High Low
  High
• Km3 Km3 Km3 Km3 Km3 Km3
• Surface Water
• Irrigation 382 391 53 360 389 46 375
  463 39
• Domestic 23 24 3 30 36 4 48
  65 6
• Industries 26 26 4 47 47 6
  57 57 5
• Power 14 15 2 25 26 3
  50 56 5
• Inland Navigation-
• in additional for
• ecological need7 7 1 10 10 1 15
  15 1

29
Perspective contd.

• Ecology 5 5 1 10 10 1
  20 20 2
• Evaporation 42 42 6 50 50 6 76
  76 6
• Total 499 510.1 70 532 588.3 67 641.1
  751.7 64
• Ground Water
• Irrigation 184 188 26 211 229 27 253
  344 29
• Domestic
• Municipal 19 19 3 25 28 3
  42 46 4
• Industries 11 11 2 20 20 2
  24 24 2
• Power 4 4 1 6 7
  1 19 14 1
• Total 217.7 221.9 30 262.3 281.7
  33331.9428.336
• Grand
• Total 717 732 100 794 850 100
  973 1180 100
• Source National Commission on Perspectives for
  Water Development

30
New Initiatives

• The Plans say
• Community groups, NGOs and Coperatives in the
  Agro Climatic Project have identified the major
  components. Farmer led distribution systems in
  existing commands watershed development
  rehabilitation of tanks, beels, ponds, talaavs
  aquifier management particularly in coastal areas
  have high returns
• A massive program for land and water development
  has to be the centre piece. Growth of private
  investment in groundwater has been spectacular
  and needs further support, particularly in the
  Eastern region of India
• Basin Development and transfer of water are
  important.
• It must be led by a public policy initiative,
  with a very large financing component. Newer
  institutional forms like cooperatives, NGOs, non
  profit companies and others must be designed.
• Leadership groups must supervise the preparation
  and implementation of such a programs at the
  regional level of 3 to 5 Districts.

31
Canals and Groundwater

• Conjunctive water use can be attempted in an an
  area and is well suited to describe the dynamic
  interaction between the surface and subsurface
  water systems ( Peter Millington, 1996 ). The
  flow chart of a simple multi level model can be
  as follows
• Water
  ---------------------? Population Needs,
  irrigation,trees,etc
• Development
  
  \
• \
  
  \
• \
  
  \
• \
  
  \
• \
  
  \
• \
  
  Wells Drilled
• \
  
  \
• Climate Regime ---?Water Table
  \
• Depth
  -----------------------? Deep Aquifier Water
  Quantity
• 
  \
  /
• 
  \
  /
• 
  \
  /
• 
  Ground Water Quantity
• Source Nicholas Sonntag (1996)

32
Best Practices

• There are a number of successful experiences
  where the basic problems of food and energy
  requirements of poor rural communities were
  resolved through the application of state-of-the
  art scientific knowledge and technology at the
  cutting edge of the interface of man with land
  and water, which were studied in the programme of
  work designed on agro-climatic planning. An
  attempt was made as a part of the development of
  such plans to document success and failure
  stories in land and water management and more
  optimal land use and cropping patterns. Such
  success stories were, thus studied under
  alternative agro-climatic regimes, which include
  low rainfall areas where, for example, the level
  of water availability on an average is 50 cms and
  a coefficient of variation is 40 to 60 per cent
  and the Dry Regions of India (Region 14). In
  other words, in some years the water availability
  could be less than 8 inches. A second kind of
  agro-climatic problematique was that where the
  availability of water was greater, say around
  1000 mm, but the variation was again 40 to 60 per
  cent. (Zone 7). But the problem, was within the
  context of a hill slope and a valley. Unregulated
  commercialisation invariably meant soil erosion
  and precipitation instead of becoming a blessing
  becomes a curse, since it flows down the hill,
  erodes the land base of the region and leads
  sooner or later to a collapse of the
  socio-economic system in terms of food and
  energy. A third problematique can be one where
  past development of an unplanned type or of a
  badly planned type had led to resource loss.
  Waterlogging and soil salinity are example of
  this kind. The Basin has all these problems in
  different areas and so a differentiated strategy
  in different areas is needed.

33
Newer Trends

• The kind of work that was done in the late
  Eighties, reported above was flatteringly
  repeated. The kind of examples given above have
  now been shown to have large scale replication
  (Kanchan Chopra and Gopal Kadekode, 1993, have
  conducted analysis which is far more inclusive
  and detailed than that which was originally
  presented by Alagh, 1991).
• By now there are NGOs who have succeeded in
  agro based projects in thousands of hectares and
  no longer can these examples be considered as
  pilots. The N.M. Sadguru Water and Development
  Foundation in the tribal district of Panchmahals
  in Gujarat has by now covered 18000 hectares
  under social forestry. It is the largest NGO
  funded by the European Commission in the World.
  Another group called WOTER has a similar
  performance in Ahmednagar District in
  Maharashtra. We have collected some case studies
  from them for this paper. These have been
  conducted by independent scholars like R.
  Chambers (1990), Cornoy (1992), K. Balooni and K.
  Singh (1994), K. Singh and T. Shah (1994), and
  Frances and Sanjay Sinha (1996).

34
Communities

• The success stories are community and leadership
  based, with leadership coming from diverse
  sources.- a progressive farmer, an NGO, a local
  army retired person, a concerned civil servant,
  a scientist working in the field . The leaders
  either had a science background or new enough to
  adapt from a nearby science institution. The
  organisation structure was neither purely private
  ownership, nor fully community or social control.
  The leadership invariably argued for aggressively
  functioning markets and land ownership was
  private and agricultural operations at the
  household level. However there was for land or
  water management, limited and well defined
  cooperation. This could be drainage, soil
  shaping, contour management, improvement and
  management of lower level canals, desilting of
  tanks, raising embankments, fish culture, market
  development, controlled grazing and so on.

35
Very Productive

• Some studies estimate the land and water
  development costs, the labour component, outside
  finance, the output in terms of food
  requirements met, energy requirements met and
  fodder supplies. There were estimates of
  economic rates of return on the investment,
  i.e. at accounting border prices, with a shadow
  wage rate 25 higher than the market rate.
  Financial rates of return at market prices were
  also estimated. These studies showed high
  economic rates of return, 18 plus , making them
  very productive investments

36
Different Approaches

• Indian water scenarios follow a bifocal approach.
  There is macro estimation of demand through the
  sub-models
• There is emphasis on policy choice and
  alternatives in the ACRP approach or the river
  basin approach
• While the Perspectives Commission has futures
  scenarios with considerable policy discussion,
  the Futures study by the SP Gupta Committee has
  much less discussion on water issues.
• In recent global models, while Indian water
  demand is estimated with an Efficiency scenario,
  that for neighbouring countries is on a BAU
  methodology. This is bad methodology, for
  comparative studies.

37
References

• Alagh, Y.( Chairman)1979, Task Force on Minimum
  Need and Effective Demand, Government of India.
• Alagh, Y.. et. al., ( 1979 ),Studies on the
  Structure of the Indian Economy and Planning for
  Development, PPD, Planning Commission, New Delhi.
• ------, et.al., 1984, Policy Modelling for
  Planning in India, in E. Thorbecke, ed. , below.
• ------,1988, Guidelines for Agroclimatic
  Planning A Draft for Discussion, Journal of Land
  Development .
• ------, 1991, Indian Development Planning and
  Policy. WIDER Studies in Development Economics,
  Helsinki and Delhi, Vikas.
• ------, 1991, Sustainable Development, From
  Concept to Action Techniques for Planners,
  UNCED.
• ------, 1994, Planning and Policies for Indian
  Agricultural Research, 25th Lal Bahadur Shastri
  Shastri Lecture, reprinted in ICAR, Landmarks in
  Indian Agriculture.
• ------, Next Phase of Agroclimatic Research, in
  ARPU volume 2 of same title, New Delhi, Concept.
• ------, and D.Buch, 1995, The SSP and Sustainable
  Development, in W. Fisher, Columbia University
  Seminars, below.
• -----,2000, Sustainable Development India 2020,
  Tokyo, UNU/IAS

38
References 2

• Bhalla, G., and Y.Alagh, Performance in Indian
  Agriculture, New Delhi, Sterling.
• Chopra. K., and G. Kadekodi,1993, Watershed
  Development, Economic and Political Weekly, June
  26, pp, A61-A67.
• Frankel, F.R.1971, Indias Green Revolution
  Economic Gains and Political Costs. New Jersey
  Princeton University Press. 1971.
• Griffin, Keith, 1971 , Green Revolution An
  Economic Analysis, United Nations Institute for
  Social Development, Report No.72.6, Geneva.
• Lele, U., N. Kumar, Y. Alagh, N. Saxena, and K.
  Mitra, 2000, Forestry in India An Evaluation,
  Washington, World Bank.
• Nasution, L., 1993 , Agricultural Regionalistion
  of Indonesia, Bogor, Agricultural, Research
  Centre
• Sachs, I., 1991, Background Paper for the Hague
  Declaration, extensively reprinted in Nature and
  by RIS.
• Sadasyuk, G., and P. Sengupta, 1968, Economic
  Regionalisation of India Problems and
  Approaches, New Delhi, Census of India, Monograph
  No. 8 of Census 1960
• Sonntag, N., 1996, Adaptive Management Policy
  Exercises Two Methods for Integrated Resource
  Management, in MRC. p. 27.