Long-Term%20Energy-Economic-Environment%20Scenarios%20and%20Policy%20Making

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Long-Term Energy-Economic-Environment Scenarios
and Policy Making
Leo SCHRATTENHOLZER, Project Leader Environmentall
y Compatible Energy Strategies (ECS) IIASA www.ii
asa.ac.at/Research/ECS
22nd Meeting of the International Energy
Workshop IIASA, Laxenburg, 24-26 June 2003
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ECS Research

• Umbrella Global energy-economy-environmental
  (E3) scenarios and their policy implications
• Technology database CO2DB
• Clean-coal technologies
• Bottom-up multi-gas optimization
• Sustainable-Development scenarios
• Hydrogen

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The CO2DB Database

• Detailed technical, economic and environmental
  characteristics as well as data on innovation,
  commercialization and diffusion in some 3000
  entries
• Users can add to, select, filter, arrange, and
  compare CO2DBs data according to any of the
  technology characteristics included in each
  database entry
• ECS distributes CO2DB free of charge. In return,
  for ECS encourages users to share their data.

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Technology and Climate Change

• Participation in IEA/CERT Book Technology
  Options for Achieving Significant Greenhouse Gas
  Emissions Reductions from Energy Over the
  Long-Term
• ECS contributed a chapter with an examination of
  robust technologies and energy carriers across a
  wide range of alternative scenarios

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CO2 Capture in the Global Power Sector A2-CCT
Policy Scenario
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Co-production of Fischer-Tropsch Liquids and
Electricity from Coal
FT-Liquids
Fischer-Tropsch (FT)
Sulfur
Coal
Gasification
Synthesis
(Diesel, Gasoline, etc.)
Removal
Purge Gas
O
2
Electricity
Air
Gas Turbine
Air Separation Unit
CO
removal
2
ST
CO2
Co-production systems Coal Input F-T liquids Output Electricity Output
Without CO2 capture 100 45 14
With CO2 capture 100 46 10
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Reductions of Cumulative Emissions Relative to
baseline ?T 2K
100
Multigas
CO2-only
80
60
40
20
0
CO2
CH4
N2O
CF4
SF6
HFC
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Shadow Prices
2500
CO2-only
Multigas
2000
1500
Shadow price of CO2 (/tC)
1000
500
0
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
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GDP Loss 2000-2040 (MERGE)Three burden-sharing
rules
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Which Technologies are Successful in
Sustainable-Development Scenarios?
Hydrogen fuel cell
Hydrogen
Fuel cells
Solar photovoltaic
Solar
PV modules
Most successful technology components
Most successful energy infrastructures
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Policy Implications from SD Scenarios

• Technological progress can make the difference
  between not sustainable and sustainable
• Synthetic fuels (generated with renewable energy
  and suitable for utilization in fuel cells) favor
  sustainable development
• The most important one is hydrogen

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Hydrogen ProductionB1-H2 Scenario
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Fuel Economy of Passenger Cars
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Summary

• ECS explores long-term perspectives of the global
  energy system and related policy issues,
  generating new methods, tools and insights to
  support decision-making
• International and interdisciplinary NGO status
  allows providing global insights while playing an
  honest-broker role
• ECS collaborates with different partners and
  keeps maintaining and extending its network of
  collaborators

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From here Reserve slides
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Sustainable-Development Scenarios A Working
Definition

• Sustained economic growth
• Declining inter-regional economic inequity
• Non-declining reserves-to-production ratios
• Low environmental stress
• Consistent with the Brundtland Definition
  (1987)

development that meets the needs of the present
without compromising the ability of future
generations to meet their own needs
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Scenario Analysis

• Scenarios are different and self-consistent
  images of the future
• Scenarios generated by a formal (IIASAs)
  modeling framework are analyzed
• Which technological trajectories will enable a
  sustainable-development path?

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IPCC SRES Reference Emission Scenarios

• Four scenario families (A1, A2, B1, B2)
• For each family one narrative (storyline)
• 9 IIASA scenarios (out of a total of 40 scenarios
  from 5 modeling groups)
• Together, the IIASA scenarios cover the full
  range of GHG and sulfur emissions found in the
  literature