Scientific Method

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• Scientific Method
• Process
• Observation
• Careful Include as many parameters as possible
• Observations ? Induction ? Question ? Hypothesis
• Question
• Hypothesis
• Possible cause
• Reflect past experience (educated guess)
• Multiple (consider alternative explanations)
• Testable
• Falsifiable
• Prediction
• Hypothesis/Principle ? Deduction ? Prediction
• Experiment
• Experimental group, Control group, Replication
• Results/Interpretation
• Scientific Theory

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• Scientific Method
• Bias
• Sampling Bias
• Our view of the world is conditioned very
  strongly by the observational methods we use
• Ex Counting whales vs. bacteria vs. viruses
• Methods vary considerably, depending on the
  temporal and spatial scales of interest
• Ex How is global temperature measured? Sea
  level?
• Assumptions
• Important to recognize inherent assumptions
• Ex 14C dating of wooden artifacts
• Paradigms
• Generally accepted model, conceptual framework or
  set of belief(s) about a particular topic
• Ex Dinosaurs went extinct because of global
  climate change precipitated by an asteroid
• Paradigms may not be permanent
• Can be discarded/replaced by better explanation
  (paradigm shift)
• Ex Heliocentric solar system, continental drift
• Paradigms may become so entrenched that people
  ignore contradictory evidence or modify evidence
  to match paradigm

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IPCC 2007
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IPCC 2007
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• Scientific Method
• Bias
• Sampling Bias
• Our view of the world is conditioned very
  strongly by the observational methods we use
• Ex Counting whales vs. bacteria vs. viruses
• Methods vary considerably, depending on the
  temporal and spatial scales of interest
• Ex How is global temperature measured? Sea
  level?
• Assumptions
• Important to recognize inherent assumptions
• Ex 14C dating of wooden artifacts
• Paradigms
• Generally accepted model, conceptual framework or
  set of belief(s) about a particular topic
• Ex Dinosaurs went extinct because of global
  climate change precipitated by an asteroid
• Paradigms may not be permanent
• Can be discarded/replaced by better explanation
  (paradigm shift)
• Ex Heliocentric solar system, continental drift
• Paradigms may become so entrenched that people
  ignore contradictory evidence or modify evidence
  to match paradigm

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• Technology Developments
• Observation
• Satellite-based sensors
• Automated monitoring equipment
• Ex TAO/TRITON array
• Novel technology
• Ex acoustic instruments
• Powerful computers
• Real-time communication (fiber, internet,
  satellite)
• Communication
• Global communication technology
• Extensive scrutiny (scientific, non-scientific)
• Intense media coverage
• Mitigation/Alternatives
• Emissions control (air, water)
• Water purification (desalination, reclamation)
• Energy
• Nuclear, solar, wind, geothermal, hydroelectric,
  fuel cells, ocean (tides, waves, currents)

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World Fuel Production Energy Use
FUEL 1800 1900 1990
Biomass (6-18 MJ kg-1) 1,000 1,400 1,800
Coal (14-32) 10 1,000 5,000
Oil (42) 0 20 3,000
Uranium (90 million) 0 0 ??
ENERGY 1800 1900 2000
Total 250 800 10,000
Indexed (1900 100) 31 100 1,250
Fuel values in millions of metric tons Energy
values in mmt oil equivalent - More energy used
in 20th century than all of human history before
1900
McNeill, 2000
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• Technology Developments
• Packaging/Processing
• Canning
• Bottling
• Freezing
• Freeze drying
• Global Commerce
• Developments
• Refrigerated long-haul trucks/containers/train
  cars
• Interstate highway railroad systems
• Advances in food processing/storage
• Selective breeding/genetic modification
• Consequences
• Increase in tonnage of food shipped
  internationally
• 898 vs. 200 million tonnes in 2001 vs. 1961
• 2000 Wholesale market in Chicago Average
  kilogram of produce traveled gt2400 km from farm
  to plate (25 increase vs. 1980)
• Typical supermarket
• 30,000 items

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• Technology Developments
• Global commerce
• Environmental Effects
• Air pollution Transportation
• Ex Bottled water
• Nearly 25 of all bottled water transported
  internationally
• Release of GHGs
• Production (e.g. fertilizer, flatulence),
  transportation
• Waste production
• Ex Bottled water
• 89 billion liters/yr ? 1.5 million tons plastic
  waste (WWF, 2001)
• 154 billion liters in 2004 (Earth Policy
  Institute)
• gt1 billion water bottles in CA trash/yr (CA Dept
  of Conservation, 2003)
• Resource use
• Ex Bottled water
• 2004 Plastic bottle production used 9 million
  barrels of oil, enough to fuel 600,000 cars for a
  year (EPI)

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Earth Policy Institute
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• Technology Developments
• Global commerce
• Environmental Effects
• Agricultural diversity
• Conversion to monocultures ? Loss of diversity
• Environmental degradation
• Ex Canals/Locks on Mississippi ? Biodiversity
  loss (e.g. aquatic plants, inverts, fishes,
  birds)
• Ex Dredging/Development of Pantanal (largest
  wetland in South America 140,000 km2 IL) ?
  Damage to biodiversity hotspot
• Health Concerns
• Ex 2003 Green onions from Mexico ? 600 people
  in PA with hepatitis, 3 deaths
• Ex 2006 Spinach from CA ? 200 people in 26
  states sick from E. coli, 4 deaths