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Some reflections on resource productivity and on
steering instruments Nov 24, 2008 Ernst Ulrich
von Weizsäcker
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Thomas Friedman A green revolution needed
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Let us try and assess the size of the challenge
The Brundtland formula of sustainable development
(1987) Meeting the needs of the present
without compromising the ability of future
generations to meet their own.
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A sustainable society has reasonably small
ecological footprints and a high Human
Development Index (HDI)
Footprints (hectares)
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8
High HDI
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The sustainable development quadrant
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2
Small footprints
0
0.2
1
0.8
0.4
0.6
HDI
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Empirically, only one country is sustainable
Cuba
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We seem to learn sustainable development has a
chance if we learn to extract roughly five times
more human development wealth from one hectare
of a footprint.
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More or less the same holds for the climate
challenge If we reduce our carbon footprints
five fold without sacrificing wealth, the problem
would be solved!
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Conventional wisdom More wealth, more carbon
intensity
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A Kuznets Curve of decarbonization, or escape
from the carbon paradigm is needed!
rich and carbon free
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The precedent is the well-known Kuznets curve of
pollution
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When thinking of decarbonization the first thing
that comes to mind is solar energy.
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Solar and wind energies soared when Germany
introduced the feed-in tarriffs (blue part of the
graph)
Source BMU. 2008. Erneuerbare Energien in
Zahlen. Berlin p. 32
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Investments in renewables soared. (The 2008
Wall-street disaster brought Asset Finance down
again!)
Source UNEP Global trends in Sustainable Energy
Investments 2008 Nairobi ISBN 978-92-807-2939-9
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Patent applications soared even more!
Source Martin Jänicke, Megatrend Ecoinnovation
2008, figures from OECD, 2005
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Also the EU embraces renewables. But
(realistically) they foresee flattening after
2020 (EU Vision 2050)
Source EU-27 Renewable Energy Growth, Dec. 2007
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The same EU Vision 2050 talks about a fourfold
increase of energy productivity, allowing a
phase-out of fossil nuclear!
Source Vision2050 for the EU 27, Brussels Dec.
2007
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The win-win options relate to efficiency, not
renewables
Source MacKinsey Vattenfall 2007
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But we need a huge amount of energy, dont
we? Efficiency surely makes only a modest
contribution. Thats conventional wisdom! In
reality, efficiency can solve essentially all
problems. Let us do a little calculation
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Imagine a bucket of water weighing twenty
pounds.How many kilowatt-hours would you need
to lift that bucket from sea level up to the top
of Mount Everest?
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1 kwh
Knowing that one Watt-second (Ws) is equivalent
to one Newton-meter, (1 Joule) the answer is
One quarter of a kilowatt-hour! ( 900.000 Ws)
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Factor Four offers fifty examples of
quadrupling resource productivity
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Amory Lovins Hypercar is up to seven times more
fuel efficient than todays cars
Hypercar 120-150 mpg
Todays cars 20-30 mpg
Energy efficiency
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Solar passive houses save 90 of heating costs
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Energy efficiency in office buildings
The Donald Bren School, a Platinum LEED building
Energy water efficiency
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From incandescent to fluorescent lightbulbs
Energieeffizienz
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And from fluorescent light bulbs to solid state
lighting
Energy efficiency
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Typically, however, a factor of four is
unattainable if we look at efficiency of simple
processes.Bigger gains come in when optimizing
complex systems. Here, we talk about productivity
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Efficiency gains are vulnerable to the rebound
effect
The rebound effect was first described in William
Stanley Jevons 1865 book, The Coal Question,
where he observed that England's consumption of
coal soared after James Watt introduced his
coal-fired steam engine, which greatly improved
the efficiency of Thomas Newcomens earlier
design.
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Since the 1980s, the rebound effect is often
called the Khazzoom-Brookes Postulate. Daniel
Khazzoom and Nel Brookes observed that all the
efficiency gains of the 1970s were
overcompensated by additional consumption,
notably after the oil prices came down again.
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Rebound effect in car fuels Average fuel
consumption per car goes down, total fuel
consumption (blue line) goes up.
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Overcoming the rebound effect with economic
instruments
Regulation Technological efficiency gains, mostly
inside the box
Economic Instruments Adding a price tag on
consumption networks and cascades get leaner
Efficiency (e.g. lumen per kilowatt)
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Long term price elasticity is very high (These
OECD countries had consistent fuel price policies
over decades!)
per capita and year fuel comsumption in kg
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Strawberry yoghurt logistics 1500 instead of
8000 kilometres
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Seasonal diets, organic farming, a little less
meat
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From urban sprawl to high density cities
Space and energy efficiency
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Video conferences can replace some business travel
Energy- and material efficiency
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The sequel to Factor Four will focus on systems
improvements and economic instruments (scheduled
for mid 2009)
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Changing technological paradigms

• Old
• Increasing labour productivity

• New
• Increasing resource productivity

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If labour productivity has increased twentyfold
since 1850, it is not utopian to think of
resource productivity increasing fivefold in 50
years and tenfold in 100 years!
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But labor productivity is still running ahead
Source P. Kazmierczyk, EEA, 2008
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For 200 years resource prices were falling.
Recent price hikes just brought us back into the
lower confidence interval! And after the
Wallstreet crash, prices are back to lowest
levels.
Prices of industrial commodities energy, in
constant dollars
The last 5 years
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Labour productivity always rose in parallel with
labour costs
This time-window happens to be USA 1910 - 1960
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Predictability is the strongest signal to
investors. They know labor cost will always go
up, while resource prices fluctuate up and down.
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Also tradable permits show wild price fluctuations
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Consistent fuel tax increases leading to
decoupling! CO2-emissions per capita (base year
1993100)
Fuel Duty Escalator 1993-1999
German fuel tax tax increases, from 1999 on
ecotax
Reference DIW 2005
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Such considerations have led a Task Force of the
China Council to the proposal of gradually
increasing energy prices in parallel with
measured energy productivity increases. (the
permanent ecological tax reform)