Presentation Timashev, Science

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NATO-Russia Seminar Moscow May 31-June 2, 2006
INTERNET-BASED METHODS OF ASSESSING THE DAMAGE
AND OPERATIONAL RISK FOR CRITICAL
INFRASTRUCTURES S.A Timashev, L.V.Polouian Science
Engng Center Reliability Safety of Large
Systems, Ural Branch, Russian Academy of
Sciences 620049, Ekaterinburg, Studencheskaya
str.54A Tel/fax [phone] Email
wekt_at_r66.ru, TimashevS_at_cox.net
Presentation ? Timashev, Science Engineering
Center, Ural Branch, RAS - WEKT, Inc.
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RISK BASED MANAGEMENT OF PIPELINE INTEGRITY AND
SAFETY
Basics of the System and Holistic Engineering
Approach to Pipeline Integrity, Remaining Life,
Reliability and Safety
FORMULA OF RISK

• Failure consequences
• Fatalities/casualties
• Environmental impact of failure
• Property damage
• Downtime costs
• Loss of service/efficiency
• Public image damage
• Other

Conditional probability of failure
Expected Failure Cost
Risk

?

Includes individual, societal and territorial
types of risk
Links Risk Remaining Life Monitoring to Finance
Presentation ? Timashev, Science Engineering
Center, Ural Branch, RAS - WEKT, Inc.
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RISK BASED MANAGEMENT OF PIPELINE INTEGRITY AND
SAFETY
Basics of the System and Holistic Engineering
Approach to Pipeline Integrity, Remaining Life,
Reliability and Safety
THE ESSENCE OF OBTAINING PDF OF TRES FROM THE
ORIGINAL PDF
Presentation ? Timashev, Science Engineering
Center, Ural Branch, RAS - WEKT, Inc.
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RISK BASED MANAGEMENT OF PIPELINE INTEGRITY AND
SAFETY
Basics of the System and Holistic Engineering
Approach to Pipeline Integrity, Remaining Life,
Reliability and Safety
EVOLUTION OF DAMAGE ACCUMULATION PROBABILITY MASS
FUNCTION
Presentation ? Timashev, Science Engineering
Center, Ural Branch, RAS - WEKT, Inc.
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RISK BASED MANAGEMENT OF PIPELINE INTEGRITY AND
SAFETY
ULTIMATE GOALS OF DAMAGE ASSESSMENT (DA)
1) Fast (near real-time) preliminary
damage assessment right after the
incident/catastrophe (EMERCOM, FEMA needs)
2) Evaluation of maximal/average/minimal damage
(asset design or rehabilitation/management
/operation optimization, post- event DA )
3) Precise damage assessment (design, operation
of super- critical assets, RD requirements,
post-event DA) With development of relevant
software, methods of the third group will,
ultimately, serve the second and, possibly, the
first goal.
Presentation ? Timashev, Science Engineering
Center, Ural Branch, RAS - WEKT, Inc.
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RISK BASED MANAGEMENT OF PIPELINE INTEGRITY AND
SAFETY
METHODS FOR DAMAGE ASSESSMENT
Should be adequate to the ultimate
goal GOAL 1. Direct on-site data gathering,
expert assessments GOAL 2. Quantitative
methods, statistics, scoring methods, inference
and their fusion GOAL 3. Heavy artillery
quantitative methods With development of
relevant software, methods of the third group
will serve the second and, possibly, first goal.
Presentation ? Timashev, Science Engineering
Center, Ural Branch, RAS - WEKT, Inc.
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RISK BASED MANAGEMENT OF PIPELINE INTEGRITY AND
SAFETY
Basics of the System and Holistic Engineering
Approach to Pipeline Integrity, Remaining Life,
Reliability and Safety
EXISTING METHODS OF COST EVALUATION OF
LIFE/INJURY, ENVIRONMENT CONTAMINATION, PROPERTY
DAMAGE DUE TO FAILURE OF CRITICAL ASSETS
Presentation ? Timashev, Science Engineering
Center, Ural Branch, RAS - WEKT, Inc.
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RISK BASED MANAGEMENT OF PIPELINE INTEGRITY AND
SAFETY
Basics of the System and Holistic Engineering
Approach to Pipeline Integrity, Remaining Life,
Reliability and Safety
COST OF LIFE/LIMB/INJURY
CURRENT APPROACHES

• COST OF PERSONNEL ILLNESS (LOWER BOUND
  ASSESSMENT)
• AVERAGE OVER A POPULATION QUERY
• LOSSES OF SOCIETY DUE TO A MORTALITY
• THE HUMAN CAPITAL METHOD
• AVERAGE RESIDUAL LIFE EXPECTANCE (ARLE) METHOD
• USING INSURANCE ACTUARIAL DATA / CURRENT PRACTICE
  
• -- Cost of suffering (victim,
  relatives-includes duration of suffering)
• -- Cost of life / injury insurance
• -- Cost of supporting relatives
• COST OF SAVING A LIFE (CSL) PRINCIPLE , or
• IMPLIED COST OF AVERTING A FATALITY (ICAF)
  APPROACH
• ICAF ?GDPe (e life expectancy
  at birth)

Presentation ? Timashev, Science Engineering
Center, Ural Branch, RAS - WEKT, Inc.
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RISK BASED MANAGEMENT OF PIPELINE INTEGRITY AND
SAFETY
Basics of the System and Holistic Engineering
Approach to Pipeline Integrity, Remaining Life,
Reliability and Safety
ECOLOGICAL DAMAGE COSTS
Ecological damage - Atmospheric pollution -
Landscape / soil contamination - Water
reservoirs pollution
Calculated as costs of rehabilitation and fines.
Presentation ? Timashev, Science Engineering
Center, Ural Branch, RAS - WEKT, Inc.
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RISK BASED MANAGEMENT OF PIPELINE INTEGRITY AND
SAFETY
Basics of the System and Holistic Engineering
Approach to Pipeline Integrity, Remaining Life,
Reliability and Safety
EVALUATING PROPERTY DAMAGE

• Property damage size depends on
• property destruction scale (buildings,
  infrastructure etc.)
• equipment destruction
• market value of the destroyed / damaged assets
• cost of repair
• lost revenue during the downtime
• loss of market share other long-term
  consequences

Presentation ? Timashev, Science Engineering
Center, Ural Branch, RAS - WEKT, Inc.
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RISK BASED MANAGEMENT OF PIPELINE INTEGRITY AND
SAFETY
Quantitative Engineering Methods for Evaluating
Components of Industrial Risk
DAMAGE COST ASSESSMENT VIA COMPUTER SIMULATION

• Assessment is conducted by averaging multiple
  computer simulation results over a full group of
  scenarios (FGS) of full scale catastrophes

Presentation ? Timashev, Science Engineering
Center, Ural Branch, RAS - WEKT, Inc.
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RISK BASED MANAGEMENT OF PIPELINE INTEGRITY AND
SAFETY
Quantitative Engineering Methods for Evaluating
Components of Industrial Risk
STEPS OF FAILURE SIMULATION
Simulation of the failure initializing event
Step 0
Step 1

• Modeling of full size infrastructure catastrophe
• Integrity loss of a critical infrastructure
  component(s)
• Damage of the environment
• Development of the breakdown situation (fracture,
  projectiles, diffusion, combustion, spread,
  filtration, etc.)

Presentation ? Timashev, Science Engineering
Center, Ural Branch, RAS - WEKT, Inc.
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RISK BASED MANAGEMENT OF PIPELINE INTEGRITY AND
SAFETY
Quantitative Engineering Methods for Evaluating
Components of Industrial Risk
STEPS OF FAILURE SIMULATION (contd)

• Calculation of
• The number of injuries and fatalities
• The economic losses due to structure breakdown
  (estimates and calculations)

Step 4
Multiple simulation of Steps 1-4 with different
realizations of the input random variables
Step 5
Calculation of the statistical parameters of the
damage size by averaging over the set of modeled
realizations
Step 6
Assessment of generalized figures of damage size
by averaging over an ensemble of similar
structures
Step 7
Presentation ? Timashev, Science Engineering
Center, Ural Branch, RAS - WEKT, Inc.
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POSSIBLE ZONE OF DESTRUCTION FOR A
CRANE SUPPORTING BEAM
1,2,3 equipment located in the shop under the
supporting beam
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DESTRUCTION ZONE FOR A TRUSS COLLAPSE
1 columns 2 adjacent trusses 3 line
where edge ?? of the collapsed truss meets the
floor 4, 5 two equi-probable destruction zones
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Characteristics of the economic equivalent of
non-economic losses
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Statistical Characteristics of Damage (in
conditions of machinery repair shops)
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Comparison of Truss Collapse Damage Assessment
Methods

• First method DZ is the solution of a ballistic
  problem
• Second method DZ is the conjunction of all
  kinematically possible variants of the
  truss collapse
• Third method DZ is the full area under (related
  to) the truss

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BARIC DAMAGE OF BUILDINGS AND EQUIPMENT
RISK BASED MANAGEMENT OF PIPELINE INTEGRITY AND
SAFETY
Quantitative Engineering Methods for Evaluating
Components of Industrial Risk
Presentation ? Timashev, Science Engineering
Center, Ural Branch, RAS - WEKT, Inc.
FromSOR, SoTP, Mow, 2000
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RISK BASED MANAGEMENT OF PIPELINE INTEGRITY AND
SAFETY
Quantitative Engineering Methods for Evaluating
Components of Industrial Risk
THE LIMIT PARAMETERS OF THE EXTERNAL BARIC
INFLUENCE IMPACT FOR DIFFERENT LEVELS OF
BUILDINGS DAMAGE
I force impulse, W level of building damage
Presentation ? Timashev, Science Engineering
Center, Ural Branch, RAS - WEKT, Inc.
From SOR, SoTP, Mow, 2000
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RISK BASED MANAGEMENT OF PIPELINE INTEGRITY AND
SAFETY
Quantitative Engineering Methods for Evaluating
Components of Industrial Risk
EXCESSIVE PRESSURE CORRESPONDING TO DIFFERENT
GRADES OF DESTRUCTION OF BUILDINGS, STRUCTURES
AND FACILITIES
Presentation ? Timashev, Science Engineering
Center, Ural Branch, RAS - WEKT, Inc.
FromSOR, SoTP, Mow, 2000
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RISK BASED MANAGEMENT OF PIPELINE INTEGRITY AND
SAFETY
Quantitative Engineering Methods for Evaluating
Components of Industrial Risk
EXCESSIVE PRESSURE CORRESPONDING TO DIFFERENT
GRADES OF DESTRUCTION OF BUILDINGS, STRUCTURES
AND FACILITIES (contd)
Presentation ? Timashev, Science Engineering
Center, Ural Branch, RAS - WEKT, Inc.
FromSOR, SoTP, Mow, 2000
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RISK BASED MANAGEMENT OF PIPELINE INTEGRITY AND
SAFETY
Quantitative Engineering Methods for Evaluating
Components of Industrial Risk
EXCESSIVE PRESSURE CORRESPONDING TO DIFFERENT
GRADES OF DESTRUCTION OF BUILDINGS, STRUCTURES
AND FACILITIES (contd)
Presentation ? Timashev, Science Engineering
Center, Ural Branch, RAS - WEKT, Inc.
FromSOR, SoTP, Mow, 2000
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RISK BASED MANAGEMENT OF PIPELINE INTEGRITY AND
SAFETY
Quantitative Engineering Methods for Evaluating
Components of Industrial Risk
BARIC INFLUENCE CHARACTERISTICS RELATED TO
DIFFERENT LEVELS OF BUILDING DESTRUCTION AND
PEOPLE INJURY
Presentation ? Timashev, Science Engineering
Center, Ural Branch, RAS - WEKT, Inc.
FromSOR, SoTP, Mow, 2000
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RISK BASED MANAGEMENT OF PIPELINE INTEGRITY AND
SAFETY
SOFTWARE FOR DAMAGE ASSESSMENT

• Google 5260 entries
• Technology iTalk (Rapid Damage Assessment
  Application)
• Arc View 3.2 with the EM tool (Earthquake model)
• ESRI Incident Survey Tool (GIS based)
• HAZUS (USA, Natural hazards only)
• LEADERS4 GRC (Government, R, C)
• TUCOFS (The Ultimate Collection of Forensic
  Software)
• PIRAMID (Canada, pipelines)
• PRIMA (Russia, pipelines)
• And more
• Screening showed that DA assessment software
  actually is predominantly related to management
  and response, not to DA

Presentation ? Timashev, Science Engineering
Center, Ural Branch, RAS - WEKT, Inc.
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RISK BASED MANAGEMENT OF PIPELINE INTEGRITY AND
SAFETY
NEEDED SOFTWARE FOR
INDUSTRIAL
DAMAGE ASSESSMENT

• Open architecture (i.e., ZOPE platform)
• Free software (i.e., Python)
• Multilingual copies (English, Russian, Spanish,
  Portuguese,)
• WEB-based, Intranet-compatible
• Open Data Base
• Block- module structure
• Serve as a module of risk-based asset integrity
  and safety management software packages
• EXAMPLE Software package PRIMA (Russia,
  pipelines, other related geo-technical
  distributed critical infrastructures)

Presentation ? Timashev, Science Engineering
Center, Ural Branch, RAS - WEKT, Inc.
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RISK BASED MANAGEMENT OF PIPELINE INTEGRITY AND
SAFETY
PROPOSAL FOR UNIFICATION OF THE DAMAGE
ASSESSMENT (DA) TECHNOLOGY
1) Agree on the procedures and methods
to be used for natural and industrial
damage assessment (e.g., statistics, Monte-Carlo
simulation, etc.), when treating the problems of
loss of life/limb/injury, environment damage
(air, water, land) or loss of property
2)Create a unified damage assessment procedure,
that would allow producing data which would be
statistically homogeneous and of equal validity,
consistent, non-biased, and effective 3)
Continuously collect for each threat type
(natural and industrial) corresponding Unified
Data Bases classified by countries, industries
(infrastructures), enterprises, types of
buildings/structures and their elements
(concrete, steel, aluminum, wood, etc.), and
such
Presentation ? Timashev, Science Engineering
Center, Ural Branch, RAS - WEKT, Inc.