Thousand Oaks

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Thousand Oaks
Dan Hamilton Chuck Maxey Bill Watkins
March 2008
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Modeling
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Time Series Modeling

• Endogenous variables
• Exogenous variables
• Stochastic relationships
• Assumptions
• Embedded in larger model
• Risks
• Input-Output models

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Scenarios

• Assumptions
• Compare
• To Baseline
• Not What Might Be
• Not Alternative Scenarios

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Scenarios

• Baseline
• United States Recession
• California Recession
• Land Use Initiative
• Amgen

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ScenariosHeadline Data

• Real Output Growth
• Job Growth
• Population Growth
• Real Per-Capita General Funds Revenue

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Baseline Assumptions
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Baseline Scenario

• United States Economy
• California Economy
• Cyclical Slowdown
• Financial Market Stress
• Real Estate
• Related Retail Sales
• Auto Sales

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Baseline Scenario

• Countrywide
• Amgen
• State Budget
• Local Real Estate

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United States GDP Growth
7.2
4.5
4.5
4.4
4.2
4.1
4.1
4.0
3.7
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.3
3.3
3.2
3.2
3.1
2.9
2.7
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.4
2.3
1.9
1.6
0.8
-0.2
-0.2
-1.9
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
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California GDP Growth
9.9
7.9
7.6
6.2
6.0
5.8
5.8
5.3
4.9
4.6
4.2
4.2
4.0
4.0
3.8
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.4
3.4
3.0
2.9
2.2
1.9
1.3
1.2
0.6
-0.1
-0.4
-1.0
-1.9
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
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Amgen Employees
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BASELINE
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Summary

• Highest Economic Growth
• Highest Population Growth
• Slow Growth
• Weak Home Prices
• Modest Fiscal Challenges
• Best Fiscal Outcome

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US RECESSION
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Comparison of United States Scenarios
GDP growth rate
7.2
4.5
4.5
4.4
4.2
4.1
4.1
4.0
3.7
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.3
3.2
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.7
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.3
2.0
1.9
1.6
0.8
-0.2
-0.2
-1.0
-1.2
Baseline
US Recession
-1.9
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
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Summary

• Serious Local Recession
• Very Weak Home Prices
• Serious Fiscal Challenges
• Worst Fiscal Scenario

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CA RECESSION
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Comparison of California Scenarios
GDP growth rate
Baseline
CA Recession
9.9
7.9
7.6
6.2
6.0
5.8
5.8
5.3
4.9
4.6
4.2
4.2
4.0
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.4
3.0
3.0
2.9
2.0
1.9
1.3
1.2
0.6
-0.1
-0.4
-0.5
-1.0
-1.0
-1.5
-1.9
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
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Job Growth
Percent change
CA Recession Scenario
8.1
6.8
5.8
2.7
2.5
2.1
1.9
0.7
0.7
0.5
0.5
0.2
-0.2
-1.1
-1.1
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
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Summary

• Intermediate Between Baseline and United States
  Recession
• Modest Local Recession
• Very Weak Home Prices
• Difficult Fiscal Challenges

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LAND USE INITIATIVE
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Land Use Initiative

• Immediate Implementation
• Development Slows Immediately
• Time Series Analysis vs. Input-Output Analysis

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Summary

• Development Collapses
• Muted Initial Economic Fiscal Impacts
• Very Slow Economic Growth
• Stronger Home Prices
• Fiscal Economic Impacts Increase Over Time

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AMGEN
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Comparison of Amgen Scenarios
Amgen employees
6800
6800
6800
6326
5800
5700
5400
4700
4400
4000
3700
3523
3459
2981
2700
2614
2591
2287
1700
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
Amgen Baseline
Amgen Leaves CA
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Summary

• Local Recession Through Forecast Horizon
• Extraordinarily Weak Home Prices
• Fiscal Challenges Increase Over Time

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Comparisons
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Output Growth
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Job Growth
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Population Growth
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K-12 Growth
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Real Median Home Price Growth
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New Housing Permits
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Per Capita Non-Res Development Value
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Real Per-Capita General Fund Revenue
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Things to Remember

• We are comparing scenarios
• Baseline forecast has risks
• One assumption varies
• Compare to baseline
• Imagine compound scenarios

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