Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory

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Update from the Great Lakes
www.michigan.gov
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NOAA Center of Excellence for Great Lakes and
Human Health

• Develop forecasting tools to minimize risk to
  human health in coastal environments
• Identify sources and causes
• Outreach, Education, Awareness

• Water Quality (e.g. drinking water)
• Beach closures
• Harmful Algal Blooms

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Factors Contributing to Human Health in the Great
Lakes
Climate Meteorology Hydrology Hydrodynamics
Biology/Chemistry
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Water Quality Forecasting

• Regression (statistical) models
• Forecast water quality parameters using as input
  season, discharge, temperature, precipitation
• Operational (short term, present climate and land
  use)
• Transport (process) models
• Forecast water quality parameters using a
  detailed survey of pollutant sources in the
  watershed and mass/energy transport equations
• Operational and long-term planning (climate and
  land use scenarios)

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Beach Closings or HABs
Meteorology
Change in Land-use
Hydrology/Water Flow Bacterial Fate
Beach Closings
Circulation and Bacterial Fate
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Beach Quality Modeling Approach

• GLCFS Boundary Conditions
• Currents and temperatures
• Waves
• Meteorology
• Schwab

• Hydrology (Tributary Flow)
• USGS Streamflow
• GLERL Models
• Croley, Phanikumar

• Pathogen Loading
• Tributaries
• Shoreline NPS
• Reuspension
• Haack, Whitman, Phanikumar, McLellan

• Nearshore Hydrodynamics and Waves
• POMGL
• NearCOM?
• Beletsky, Schwab, Bravo, Wu

• Near Field Mixing
• Needs loadings and ambient conditions
• Roberts, Frick

• Bacterial Transport and Fate
• Same grid as hydrodynamics?
• Needs pathogen loading, near field mixing
  hydrodynamics
• Lagrangian/ Eulerian?
• Phanikumar, Roberts, Frick, Whitman

• Beach Quality Model
• Probabilistic?
• GUI/Communications
• Frick, Whitman

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Lake Michigan Depth Map
Princeton Ocean Model simulation of Lake Michigan
currents during March, 1998
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Lake Michigan Model Grids
Lakewide grid (POM model)
Coupled models nested grids

Burns Ditch mesoscale model grid
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Nested Grid Hydrodynamic Models in Lake Michigan
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Study Location- Grand River
2006 June 19-24, August 8-11 2007 June 4-8,
July 16-20
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Towed v-fin with attached flourometer was used to
measure dye concentration as well as conductivity
and temperature
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Transport Models Nonpoint Pollution Surveys
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Grand River Watershed Simulation
4 FPS
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Grand Haven, MI 100 m nested grid (high flow)
Hoffmaster SP
North Beach
Grand Haven SP
Brucker St.
Buchanan St.
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Grand River Plume Aerial Photography and Model
Simulations
June 2, 2007
June 10, 2007
June 20, 2007
June 6, 2007
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Web site www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/gh
48 hr Forecast /ghf
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HAB Goal

• Develop predictive capabilities for presence of
• toxic cyanobacterial blooms in Great Lakes
• recreational and drinking water supplies

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Hydrodynamics - Great Lakes version of POM 20
vertical levels, 2 km horizontal grid (6500
cells) Hourly meteorology (1994, JD 1-365)
Realistic tributary flows Accounts for ice cover
Mass balance for P POM hydrodynamics (2d for
now) Realistic P loading Constant settling
velocity (for now)
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Harmful Algal Bloom Growth and Toxin Production
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Demonstration for Lake Erie using a simple case

• Circulation Model Great Lakes Forecast System
  (Schwab et al.), POM-based
• Input from satellite model
• Transport GNOME
• Questions
• Uncertainty in currents
• Uncertainty in HAB field
• Comparison of these

www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs
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Satellite
August 20
August 17
August 14
Modeled
Modeled
Aug 14
August 17 Initial model
Observed
Modeled
Aug 17
August 20 initialization
Observed
Aug 20
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Consider uncertainty in modeled currents

• Black position red position with maximum
  uncertainty (30 of current)
• Aug 20 initial Aug 23
  model Aug 27 model

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Lake Erie Hypoxia and Drinking Water Processing
Dead Zone
Advance information can allow managers to respond
to episodic internal waves with alternative
processing methods.
RECON Buoys
Hypoxic water has significantly lower
temperature, lower pH, and higher Manganese
levels than shore waters -
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Water Intakes
Cleveland
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Questions?