May 2005

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Todays Weather Perfect Day for SEEDS
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Sustainable East End Development Strategies
Welcome and Welcome Back
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• Welcome to SEEDS
• Presentation
• Understanding our SEEDS Process
• Understanding our SEEDS Values
• Identifying Regional Issues
• Identifying the Task at Hand

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OUR SEEDS PROCESS
www.seedsproject.com
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SEEDS Mission Statement
Create a balanced and sustainable approach
to improving transportation in coordination
with land development.
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Establish a consensus building process that
presents opportunities for communities to
individually pursue land use policies consistent
with regional goals and to guide regional
transportation investment.
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Our Process Outline
1) Public Visioning 2) Public Workshops 3)
Scenario Development 4) Scenario Testing and
Modeling 5) Public Workshops and Consensus
Building 6) Sustainable Development Plan
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• 1) Public Visioning
• 10 Visioning Sessions
• 2) Public Workshops
• 6 Planning Workshops
• 4 Spanish Language Workshops
• Result Approx.70 pages and over 2,000 Comments

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• 3) Scenario Development
• Broadest refinement of public input
• Sets building blocks of what can and should be
  tested
• 4) Scenario Testing and Modeling
• Brackets potential range of actions
• Does not imply direct correlation with final
  recommended actions

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• 5) Public Workshops and Consensus Building
• Public review of modeling outputs
• Consensus on final scenario combination
• 6) Sustainable Development Plan
• Inter-municipal agreements

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For three years the local citizens of the East
End have been

• sharing findings
• weighing in
• helping to make decisions

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The Stakeholders

• Dedicated volunteers
• Local planners
• Government officials
• An involved public

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Thank you for joining us today!
The Stakeholder Oversight Committee
Shelter Island Art Barnett Ed Shillingburg Pat
Shillingburg Julie Ben Susan Southampton Scott
Carlin Hank de Cillia Lauren Fortmiller Hal Ross
Southold Chris Baiz Marjorie Day John Rooney
East Hampton Kathy Cunningham Kay Hutton Tom
Ruhle Riverhead James Elwood Doris McGreevy Ron
McGreevy
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IMAGINE our community environment the
way we want it to be
www.seedsproject.com
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OUR SEEDS VALUES
www.seedsproject.com
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News FlashNews Flash
SEEDS principles lead the way to a better East
End! These principles represent our community
values
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SEEDS Principles Community

• Preserve and enhance the historic villages and
  hamlets that make the East End unique

• Provide for a mix and variety of housing types
  enabling current residents to have more choices
  and to provide for economic diversity

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SEEDS Principles Community

• Redevelop and reclaim land before converting
  undeveloped land

• Protect agricultural and open space resources
  that help define the character of the East End
  and are primary drivers of the local economy.
  Reinforce traditional industries such as farming,
  fishing, and tourism

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SEEDS Principles Transportation

• Decrease local community and visitor dependency
  on cars and improve pedestrian and public transit
  accessibility

• Establish short- and long-term solutions to
  chronic congestion and unsafe road conditions

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SEEDS Principles Transportation

• Minimize congestion on local roads and side
  streets due to spillover traffic from main
  travelways

• Improve visual character of roadway corridors

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SEEDS Principles Environment

• Protect important natural resources, including
  groundwater, wetlands and surface waters,
  shorelines, forests, significant habitats, open
  space, and existing parks and recreational
  facilities

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SEEDS Principles Environment

• Pursue long-term and sustainable commitment to
  regional environmental quality (i.e., regional
  air quality)

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ENVISION our community environment
the way we want it to be
www.seedsproject.com
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www.seedsproject.com
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OUR ISSUES REGIONALLY
www.seedsproject.com
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How are the issues understood?
Baseline 2025 Forecast
Do Nothing Future
1995 Base Year
EAST END MODEL
Alternative 2025 Forecasts
24 Alternative Futures
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What Does the East End Model Do?

• Applies assumptions about behavior and growth
  (likes dislikes)
• Collects information about the world
• Predicts future behavior to be used as a
  reference or tool for reaching consensus

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What Does the East End Model Do?

• Amazon.com Purchaser Profiling
• Insurance Companies Assignment of Risk

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The Power of the East End Model

• Identifies the potential impact of where
  potential development is placed
• Identifies the overall impact of the amount of
  potential development
• Identifies impacts of potential changes to the
  transportation infrastructure
• Evaluates how variations in land use interact
  with transportation system

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2025 is our chosen future year
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2025 Baseline Land Use

• This is when maximum development under current
  (2002) zoning regulations is expected to occur

The term Current BUILDOUT describes this
condition.
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2025 Baseline Transportation

• Current growth with only planned transportation
  improvements

• Found in the following sources
• Town Master Plans
• Environmental Impact Statements
• Regionally approved projects (Federal/State/Town)

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2025 Baseline Forecast

• This info is put into the East End Model

The model analyzes the statistics and forecasts
conditions for the 2025 Future Baseline Year
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2025

• This 2025 Future Baseline Year becomes the anchor
  to our SEEDS Matrix

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2025 Alternative Forecasts

• The SEEDS Matrix was developed by the public and
  by the stakeholders to represent a combination of
  the following

5 Transportation forecasting scenarios 5 Land Use
forecasting scenarios
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MATRIX
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2025 Baseline Year
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(No Transcript)
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1995 Land Use Density
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2025 Land Use Density
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Un-Developed
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Total Housing Units Per Town
Change 36.3 increase in housing units
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Total Vehicle Trips (Weekday 6am-10am)
Annual Change 3 increase in vehicle trips per
year
From 2005 to 2025 44 increase in vehicle trips
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How do I get out of here?!
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PLAN our community environment the
way we want it to be
www.seedsproject.com
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OUR TASK AT HAND
www.seedsproject.com
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• Tonights Goal
• Participate in Workshop Portions I and II
  immediately following this presentation

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Before The Workshop Portion

• We will explain the following
• Targeted Scenario Combinations
• Performance Measures
• Performance Measure Scoring

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• Targeted Scenario Combinations
• The five targeted scenario combinations were
  developed by scoring each combinations ability
  to achieve the
• SEEDS PRINCIPLES

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How do we measure achievement of the principles?
Baseline 2025 Forecast
Performance Measures
Final Scoring
SEEDS PRINCIPLES
Alternative 2025 Forecasts
Performance Measures
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Performance Measures

• Developed by the stakeholders as a method to
  judge how well each scenario combination would
  achieve the objectives of the SEEDS principles

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Performance Measures Are

• Quantitative Measures Based on modeling results
• Qualitative Measures Based on stakeholder and
  steering committee input

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Performance Measure Scoring
Each Performance Measure was then given a score
1 Poorly achieves principles 5 Most
effectively achieves principles
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Quantitative Performance Measures are scored by

• First being grouped into quintiles
• Then given a rank of 1 through 5 based on that
  quintile

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Qualitative Performance Measures are scored by

• SEEDS Scenario Scoring Tool
• Online questionnaire sent to stakeholder and
  steering committee members
• Conducted from March 21st-31st, 2005

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www.seedsproject.com
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Aggregate Quantitative Scores
Max Score is 65
23.01
24.96
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Aggregate Qualitative Scores
Max Score is 55
10.01
17.82
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Aggregate Combined Scores
Max Score is 120
33.84
42.96
79.68
80.64
92.64
93.36
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REALIZE our community environment the
way we want it to be
www.seedsproject.com
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Welcome to the Workshop Portion of our meeting