Choosing Among Alternate Energy Strategies in Synergistic Complex Systems

1
Choosing Among Alternate Energy Strategies in
Synergistic Complex Systems

• Asim Zia
• Environmental Studies 133
• Alternative Energy Strategies
• San Jose State University
• Spring 2008

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Overview chapters 21 22

• Revisiting complex systems dynamics
• What are some common modeling and decision tools
  used in complex systems?
• Some modeling applications of complex systems
• How to choose among alternate energy strategies
  in synergistic complex systems?

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Revisiting complex systems dynamics

• Energy choices are driven by
• Economics
• Technological superiority
• Local resource availability
• Social mores/customs
• Cultural preferences
• Politics
• Policy regimes
• Societal needs/demand etc. etc.

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Revisiting complex systems dynamics
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Modeling and decision tools used in complex
systems

• Expert panels/Delphi surveys
• Decision analysis techniques (normative models)
• Negotiations
• Descriptive decision models

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Modeling and decision tools used in complex
systems Decision analysis techniques

• Voting methods
• Weighted-scoring methods
• Cost-benefit analysis
• Mathematical programming
• Payoff matrix analysis
• Decision analysis (sequential decisions)
• Multi-attribute utility analysis

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Modeling and decision tools used in complex
systems Decision analysis techniques

• Simulation models
• Economic models (General/partial Equilibrium
  analysis)
• Systems dynamics models
• Genetic algorithms
• Neural networks
• Agent-based models (ABMs)
• Multiple-agent systems

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Modeling applications of complex systems

• Beyond the limits Confronting global collapse
  envisioning a sustainable future Meadows et al.
  1992
• Which world Hammond 1998
• MIT Integrated Global Climate Model (IGCM)

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Modeling applications of complex systems Beyond
the limits Meadows 1992
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Modeling applications of complex systems Beyond
the limits Meadows 1992
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Modeling applications of complex systems Which
World Hammond 1998

• Market World
• A future of expanding globalization and
  prosperity
• Fortress World
• A future of inequitable world, poverty and misery
  for many and riches for few
• Transformed World
• A world of social justice and economic
  prosperity, enlightened policies etc.

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Modeling applications of complex systems MIT
Integrated Global Climate Model
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Modeling applications of complex systems MIT
Integrated Global Climate Model
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Choosing among alternate energy strategies in
synergistic complex systems

• Over the next 50 to 100 years and even longer
  time-frames, what will various nations determine
  to be the appropriate percentages of renewable
  and non-renewable energy sources?
• What is the right balance between government
  regulation and voluntary initiative?
• What are the fair energy-related responsibilities
  for developed, emerging and less-advanced
  economies?

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Choosing among alternate energy strategies in
synergistic complex systems

• Large uncertainties
• When would large environmental disasters strike
  due to abusive energy practices?
• Technological innovations?
• Institutional transformations (especially UN,
  WTO, IEA, but also national and sub-national
  institutions)?
• Economic dislocation
• Consensus building within and across political
  jurisdictions

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Choosing among alternate energy strategies in
synergistic complex systems

• Long-term sustainable options
• Electricity from renewable sources (wind, solar,
  geothermal, ocean waves/tides/thermal, small
  hydro, biomass/waste) to fuel transportation,
  industrial, commercial and residential sectors
  energy-mix decided on local resource
  availability
• Renewable sources used to create hydrogen
• A mix of nuclear (fusion) and renewable sources
• But we need leadership for steering world into
  sustainable energy mixes, and YOU are our future
  leaders