Title: The Strategy of Rhetoric William H' Riker
1The Strategy of RhetoricWilliam H. Riker
- Summary
- Negative rhetoric capitalize on voters
systematic biases - Risk aversion
- Inflation of subjective probabilities of rare
events - Selective attention and ignorance
2Interactive Debate
- As in debates or courts, opponent can counter
arguments - Still, campaigns are not debates or court cases
- No arbiter to decide whats germane
- No debate judges to score arguments
effectiveness - What do rhetors decide to argue about?
- How do rhetors decide what works and what does
not?
3Rikers Model
- Campaigns make arguments supporting a position
- FEDERALIST POSITION
- Failing to adopt the Constitution will lead to
another war - ANTI-FEDERALIST POSITION
- The Constitution will create a costly and
tyrannical federal government - Voters accept some of these arguments, reject
others
4Rikers Model
- Campaign over a binary outcome e.g., yes no
- Advocates take positions, xj, related to outcome
- Each position, xj, has a set of dimensions, di
- e.g., a party advertising its ideal points on,
e.g., defence, - Size of force
- Terms of Service Conscription vs. Volunteer
- Relative size of defence budget
5Rikers Model
- An argument, ?h(xj) links xj to di in minds of
voters - e.g., a standing, professional army is a threat
to liberty - , a professional army can be smaller, less
expensive, and still more effective than a
conscript army - For some set of voters C(d) this d is salient
6Rikers Model
- For voter d is salient if
- there is a best argument in d, i.e., prefers some
xh(d) to xj(d), - Uses this d to decide how to vote
- Voter could belong to several sets of Ck(d)
- Voters choice a (complex) function of arguments
(?s) positions (xs) on salient dimensions (ds)
7Rikers Model
- Advocate (rhetor) does not know
- How voters choice function works, i.e., what
argument, ?, makes a position, x, more
influential in voters choice - How many voters take d as salient, i.e., size of
C(d) - Thus, advocates work by trial-and-error
8Rikers Model
- Trial-and-error method has many opportunity costs
- Time spent on xh cannot be spent on xj
- Determining which C(d) are biggest
- Mechanical costs of publicizing xj
9Rikers Model
- Costs borne regardless of whether or not advocate
wins on d - Costs are linear (i.e., convincing one voter in
C(d) does not make it easier/harder to convince
another voter in C(d)) - Benefits accrue only when majority of voters in
C(d) are convinced - Benefits exceed costs at some point (else
rational advocates would avoid d)
10Costs Benefits of Rhetoric on C(d)
B(Yes)
Costs / Benefits
K(Yes)
50
100
0
Voters in C(d) convinced for Yes
11Mirror-Image Costs Benefits for Opponents
B(Yes)
Costs / Benefits
B(No)
K(No)
K(Yes)
50
100
0
Voters in C(d) convinced for Yes
100
Voters in C(d) convinced for No
0
12Break-Even Points for Opposing Advocates
B(Yes)
Costs / Benefits
B(No)
t(YES)
t(NO)
K(No)
K(Yes)
50
100
0
Voters in C(d) convinced for Yes
13Dispersion Dominance
- Inferences
- Dispersion If an advocate does not reach the
break-even point on d, s/he abandons d - Dominance If an advocate attains the break-even
point on d, s/he reiterates these profitable
arguments -
- When one side has an advantage on an issue, the
other side ignores it but when neither side has
an advantage, both seek new and advantageous
issues.
14Dispersion Dominance
- Additional Considerations
- One side might have lower marginal costs (e.g., a
reputation that provides credibility) - Distribution of voters preferences could favour
one side over the other
15Testing Dispersion Dominance
- Riker offers two sorts of evidence for dispersion
dominance - Statistical examination of the distribution of
arguments in different campaign periods - Qualitative assessment of specific arguments
16Testing Dispersion Dominance
- Key statistical problem what is the baseline
from which we measure dispersion or dominance? - A 11 ratio of words implies a standoff... Which
should not persist - But recall basic outline volume of each campaign
17Anti-Federalist Themes
18Federalist Themes
19Testing Dispersion Dominance
- If campaigns just randomly spouted arguments, one
might expect a federalist / anti-federalist ratio
of - 3,204,819 / 1,742,434 1.84
20Testing Dispersion Dominance
- But this baseline ratio changes over campaign
- Riker divides campaign into 3 periods
21Testing Dispersion Dominance
- Five issues on governmental structure
- Separation of powers
- Power of the President
- Senate too powerful
- Unicameral vs Bicameral legislature
- Structure, size, selection of Congress
22Testing Dispersion Dominance
23Testing Dispersion Dominance
- Anti-federalists did not abandon all issues
- On how a national judiciary might affect
liberty they dominated
24Qualitative Evidence
-
- Washingtons endorsement
- the greatest interest of every true American
was the consolidation of our Union, in which is
involved our prosperity, felicity, safety, and
perhaps our national existence.
25Qualitative Evidence
-
- Federalists immediately use Washingtons
endorsement in their speeches and writings - It the Constitution is ushered to us under
the respectable and illustrious signature of
GEORGE WASHINGTON.To suppose that any act of
his, could injure a people whose freedom he has
already established, would be a piece of base
ingratitude, that no honest American can possibly
be guilty of.
26Qualitative Evidence
-
- Anti-federalists try to fight back
- The wisest and best men may err, and their
errors, if adopted, may be fatal to the
community. (Cato I) - The counter-arguments are not popular
- Washington writes an unequivocal letter of
support in Dec. 1787 - Federalists reprint this 51 times
anti-federalists ignore it
27Research Essay 3 Testing Rikers Theories
-
- The battle over Confederation in Nova Scotia was
fought in the media as much as in the legislative
assembly. Howe began the public campaign against
Confederation by publishing a series of
editorials, the "Botheration Letters", in the
Morning Chronicle (owned by his friend Annand).
McCully and Tupper responded using the Unionist
and Halifax Journal as their mouthpiece. -
- Use the selected editorials from the Morning
Chronicle and the Unionist to test Riker's
theories about rhetorical interaction in
political campaigns.