ESM 595

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ESM 595 3

• Hunter Lenihan/Oran Young
• Environmental Science Management
• University of California
• Santa Barbara

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Vulnerability

• Definition (Turner et al 2003)
• Vulnerability is the degree to which a system,
  subsystem, or system component is likely to
  experience harm due to exposure to a hazard,
  either a perturbation or stress/strsssor.
• Vulnerability of systems as our analytic target

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Vulnerability

• Vulnerability of what to what?
• Communities to natural hazards (draughts, floods,
  storms, famines)
• Special case of individuals/families/neighborhoods
  
• Institutions (e.g. resource regimes) to
  environmental change/anthropogenic change
• Ecosystems/biophysical systems (e.g. carbon
  pools) to anthropogenic change
• SESs to environmental change (e.g. climate
  change)
• Biophysical impacts leading to social impacts

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Vulnerability

• Earlier conceptualizations of vulnerability
• Risk-hazard (RH) models
• Pressure-and-release (PAR) models
• Expanded vulnerability analysis
• Exposure/sensitivity/coping capacity or
  adaptability
• Scale and scalar effects
• Differences across spatial/temporal scales
• Interactions across scales can increase/decrease
  vulnerability

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Vulnerability

• Focus on exposure stresses/threats/ hazards/
  perturbations/risks
• Types/characteristics of stress
• Individual
• Multiple
• Interactive
• Cumulative
• Narrow/broad
• Gradual/sudden/abrupt
• Common/unique
• Intentional/unintentional
• Familiar/unfamiliar

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Vulnerability

• Focus on sensitivity
• Some factors leading to variations in degrees of
  sensitivity
• General health/robustness
• Knowledge/skills
• Reserves (e.g. wealth)
• Entitlements (e.g. rights to food, water)
• Availability of help from other systems

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Vulnerability

• Focus on response/coping capacity
• Role of resilience in this framework
• Resilience resistance adaptability
• Forms of response
• Anticipatory/reactive
• Mitigation/adaptation
• Defensive/collaborative
• Adaptation/learning/intentional change
• Stress management strategies
• Prevention, preparedness, response
• Trial runs

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Vulnerability

• Vulnerability as the DV
• Measurement issues
• Can we devise a general/generic measure of
  vulnerability or is vulnerability issue or case
  specific?
• Does it matter?
• Can we make progress without such a measure
• Possible indicators of vulnerability
• Compare other indicator efforts e.g. DJIA for
  health of the economy HDI for state of human
  welfare, numerous efforts to measure SD

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Vulnerability

• IVs explaining/predicting variations in
  vulnerability
• Some relevant factors
• Diversification
• Substitutability
• Natural and social capital
• Reserves/stored resurces
• Aptitude for learning
• External support/subsidies
• Idea of syndromes
• Recurrent combinations (e.g. Sahel Syndrome)

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Vulnerability

• Consequences of vulnerability
• What happens when stresses mount?
• Maintenance with little change
• Adaptive management
• State changes
• Multiple equilibria
• Thresholds, triggers, flips, domains of
  attraction
• Adjustments that do not jeopardize the character
  of the system
• Adaptation/learning
• System change/transformation
• Transitions vs. state changes

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Vulnerability

• Where do we go from here?
• How useful is vulnerability analysis in efforts
  to understand social systems, ecosystems, SESs?
• Can it be an integrative/unifying theme for work
  at the Bren School?
• Plan of attack
• Looking at a number of large SESs and seeking to
  evaluate their vulnerability

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ORAN R. YOUNG Director Young_at_Bren.ucsb.edu
Phone [phone] Fax [phone]