Transforming the Way We Use Energy

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Transforming the Way We Use Energy

• Richard A. Bradley, PhD
• Head, Energy Efficiency and Environment Division
• International Energy Agency

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LONG-TERM MITIGATION OBJECTIVE
CO2 emissions must approach zero for all
stabilization levels, even for 1000ppm which is
nearly 3 times current concentrations.
IPCC 2001
Source Adapted from Haroon S. Kheshgi
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Other Objectives
Economic Growth
Energy Security
Environmental Protection
Bridging the Welfare Gap
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Atmosphere 790 PgC
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Mitigation Policy Technology
Capital Stock Turnover Rates

• Capital stock turnoverYou dont kill the cash
  cow. Thus, the margin for learning is the new
  capital stock market.
• Increasing marginal cost of rapid deployment.

Early market signals and technology RD can work
together to assist the market transition
Policies and RD are inseparable!
Source Adapted from PNL/U of Maryland
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Are We On Track?
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Global Energy-Related CO2 Emissions
In 2030, CO2 emissions are 16 lower than in the
Reference Scenario, but are still more than 50
higher than 1990
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Contributory Factors in CO2 Reduction 2002-2030
100
80
60
40
20
0
Improvements in end-use efficiency contribute
more than half renewables 20 of the reduction
in emissions
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The Transition Challenges

• Near term policy implementation
• Energy efficiency
• Technology Development and Rapid Diffusion
• Institutional change

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Actual Energy Use and Hypothetical Energy Use
Without Intensity Reductions, IEA-11
Without 25 years of energy savings, energy
consumption would have been almost 50 higher
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Projected additional potential savings by
end-use for IEA-Europe
TWh/year
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Key lighting findings no-policies,
current-policies and LLCC-scenarios
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Recommended illumination levels vary
Source Market Research on the use of
energy-efficient lighting in the commercial
sector C.Kofod et al
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Lighting level acceptance a moving variable?
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Policy Challenges for the Future

• Considerable potentials for improved energy
  efficiency still exist, but
• Energy efficiency potential has some of the
  character of energy reserves.
• Public policy efforts are essential to
• Internalise the cost of environmental
  consequences in energy prices.
• Adopt norms and standards.
• Stimulate the development of more efficient
  technologies.
• Energy efficiency is not easy, nor glamorous
  ITS THE SMALL THINGS THAT MATTER!

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The G8 Gleneagles Plan of Action

• It builds the analytical foundation for targeting
  market failures and applying the appropriate
  response for mapping out the energy efficiency
  potential.
• Where are we using energy in industry and how
  efficiently? Assessment of energy performance
  experience.
• What policies are in place? a database on
  policies, codes and standards by major sector
• How can we do better? analysis and
  identification of best policy practice.
• Brings major energy users together in a dialogue.