The Emerging Shape of the Expansion

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The Emerging Shape of the Expansion
12th Annual Conference Forecasting the Greater
Washington Economy 2004
Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Dwight Schar Faculty Chair
University Professor Director, Center for
Regional Analysis School of Public Policy George
Mason University

March 24, 2004
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GDP/GRP Trends

Washington
U.S.
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U.S. Gross Domestic Product
99 4.5 00 3.7 01 0.5 02 2.2
03 3.1
Per Cent

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
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Productivity

23-yr Avg. 2.1
5
ISM Manufacturing and Non-Mfg Indices
Non-MFG
MFG
50
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Housing TrendsNew Existing Home Sales
(000s)
(000s)
New
Existing
7
Consumer Confidence
Peak Jul 2000
Present Situation
Peak Jan 2000
100
Expectations
8
Initial Unemployment Claims
Thousands
350
(4-week moving average)
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Annual Change in Jobs (Establishment Survey)USA
Thru Feb 2004
THOUSANDS
Feb 113
Bottom 2029 Feb 02
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Annual Change in Employed (Household Survey)USA
Thru Feb 2004
THOUSANDS
Feb 951
Bottom 2004 Jan 02
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U.S. Leading IndexMonthly Over-the-Year Percent
Changes

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U.S. Coincident IndexMonthly Over-the-Year
Percent Changes

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(No Transcript)
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Washington Area Leading IndexMonthly
Over-the-Year Percent Changes

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Washington Area Coincident IndexMonthly
Over-the-Year Percent Changes

16
Annual Job ChangePayroll and Household
SurveysWashington PMSA
Thru Jan 2004
THOUSANDS
Payroll Survey
HH Survey
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Annual Job ChangeWashington PMSA
THOUSANDS
Thru Jan 2004
Jan 47,200
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Annual Change in Residents EmployedWashington
PMSA
Thru Jan 2004
THOUSANDS
Jan 62,700
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1990 - 2002 Share of Job Growth By Sector U.S.
vs PMSA

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Comparative Job Change2000-2004
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Comparative Job ChangeServices Sectors2000-2004
Change
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Jan 02 Jan 04 Job Change By Sector - PMSA
(000s)
Total 80,300
(Ranked by Size of Sector)
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Jan 03 Jan 04 Job Change By Sector - PMSA
(000s)
Total 47,200
(Ranked by Size of Sector)
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Comparative Sector GrowthChange 03-04 by
Winners/Losers
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Top Job MarketsJob Change Jan 2003 - Jan
2004(Monthly Over-the Year Data)
Thousands
Washington 47,200
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Top Job Markets Ranked by Unemployment Rate
January 2004
Percentage
U.S. 6.3
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Washington Area Core Industries Outlook
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Total Federal and Technology-Intensive
Procurement in the Washington Metro Area1982 -
2002
Billions
Technology
Total Federal Procurement Spending In Washington
MSA 1982-2002 373 B
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Employment Change by Substate Region (000s)
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Economic Outlook 2010Washington Area and
Substate Portions(Annual Change)

NV
MSA
SM
DC
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