Candidates, Issues and Outcomes in Auckland Local Election Voting

1
Candidates, Issues and Outcomesin Auckland Local
Election Voting

• by Associate Professor Charles Crothers
• AUT University

2
Rationale

• In NZ, politics is so concentrated at the
  national level that we often lose sight of
  important battles being fought at local level,
  and how democracy is (or isnt operating closer
  to home.
• Unique thin features of NZ local government
• Taps into close to home issue

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Questions

• What is the power structure of/behind local
  authorities? What are the Issues being fought
  over, or suppressed during and in-between
  elections?
• What are the characteristics and attitudes of
  candidates and other local political activists?
• What is the process of party-formation and
  coalition building amongst candidates and
  potential candidates?
• What effect do local election campaigns have on
  outcomes?
• What are the characteristics of those who vote
  and what influences the way they cast their
  votes?
• How are local conditions shaped by local
  government?

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Sources for Empirical Research on Answers

• DIA Election statistics
• DIA Candidates survey
• LGNZ Survey
• NRB Communitrak and related local authority
  surveys
• NZES and Big City QOL surveys
• Digipoll and other special purpose surveys
• AUT Auckland candidates study
• FAUI project
• Local Power Structure Studies

5
Theoretical Models

• local commitment (eg length of living in
  community, subjective strength of attachment)
• tenure/ownership
• growth and anti-growth coalition urban regime
  models
• cost/benefit of involvement models

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Auckland Region Positions Candidates

• Type Position/No.Candidates Ratio
• Mayoralties 7 51 7.29
• LA Councillors 103 346 3.36
• Regional Cllrs 13 38 2.92
• Comunity Cllrs 144 308 2.14
• DHB members 21 111 5.29
• LT members 47 62 1.32

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Proportions

• Frequency Percent
• Ward Councillor 346 37.7
• Community Board Member 308 33.6
• District Health Board 111 12.1
• Licensing Trust 62 6.8
• Mayoralty 51 5.6
• Regional Councillor 38 4.1
• Total 916100.0

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Distribution by LA

• Frequency Percent
  
• ACC 220
  24.0
• MCC 218
  23.8
• WCC 159
  17.3
• NSC 119
  13.0
• RDC 58
  6.3
• ARC 41
  4.5
• ADHB 27
  2.9
• WDHB 24
  2.6
• PDC 23
  2.5
• FDC 22
  2.4
• NSCC 5
  .5
• Total 916
  100.0

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Party

• Frequency Percent Valid
• Independent 239 26.1
• 204 22.2
• Citizens Rate 58 6.3
• Peoples Choice 45 4.9
• Indepx 39 4.3
• City Vision 33 3.6
• Labour 31 3.4
• RAM-Residents A 27 2.9
• 1 Auckland.com I 26 2.8
• Residents and R 22 2.4
• Community First 13 1.4

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Parties contd.

• Manurewa Reside 11 1.2
• Manurewa Action 11 1.2
• Waitakere Peopl 10 1.1
• Action Hobson 9 1.0
• Cap Rates Shore 8 .9
• Regional People 6 .7
• Focus Eden-Albe 6 .7
• Caring Communit 6 .7
• Papatoetoe inde 6 .7
• Maungakiekie Te 5 .5
• Pride of Papaku 5 .5
• Community Indep 5 .5
• Direct Democrac 5 .5

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Digipoll Election result ( Votes for Mayor)

• North Shore CC
• Andrew Williams 15.0 43.3
• George Wood 63.4 39.3
• Waitakere CC
• Bob Harvey 37.9 38.8
  
• John Tamihere 24.9 29.1
  
• ACC
• John Banks 43.7 39.98
  
• Dick Hubbard 35.2 31.1
• Waitakere CC
• Len Brown 29.4 39.69

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North Shore

• Sept. Prevote/ Election Result/ Nov. Recalled
  vote
• Aileen Austin 2.1 11.8 3.2
• Callum Blair 6.3 - 3.8
• Bob Pope 1.6 2.7 1.1
• Andrew Williams 8.1 43.3 16.9
• George Wood 27.4 39.3 19.7
• Total 45.5 100 44.7

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Voters

• Voter turnout. 55 v 35 .
• Those voting were more likely to be
• older,
• lower household income,
• ethnicity (with Maori and Asian less likely to
  report that they voted).
• Reasons for non-voting
• other areas of their lives crowded out politics
  (forgot, not enough time, too busy)
• failed to engage with the political situation
  (wasnt important to vote, didnt know any of the
  candidates, none of the candidates appealed,
  etc.).

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Voter Characteristics (NZES)

• Voted in 2004 Local Elections
• Gender .280
  .204 
• Agegrp .233
  .301 
• Urban or Rural .242
  .205 
• Highest Formal Education .299 .315 
• Household Income .407 .373 
• Housing Status .261
  .380 
• Ethnicity Primary Identification .204 .167 
• Hhsize .242
  .214 

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What was the most important reason for choice of
mayoral vote?

• airport (27)
• wanted change (18),
• promise of keeping rates down (17),
• wanting stability (14) and
• personality of candidate (10)

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Q20 How do you rate the performance of your
current city council?

• North
  Auckland
• Shore
  Waitakere Manukau
• ______________________________ ________
  _________
• Excellent 2.30
  4.30 3.60 7.30
• Very Good 11.00 20.60
  6.70 18.90
• Good 55.60
  57.90 56.20 58.20
• Poor 22.60
  11.20 22.80 10.10
• Very Poor 8.50
  6.10 10.80 5.50
• Total 100.00
  100.00 100.00 100.00

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Do you think the 8 Auckland Councils should be
replaced by one refer Royal Commission

• Yes 58.50 50.70 .
  53.70
• No 41.50 49.30 .
  46.30
• Total 100.00 100.00 . 100.00

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Q22 What is the most impt. issue for you this
election?

• Property rates 22.00 24.00
  23.90 27.30
• Water rates 2.10 5.30
  9.80 10.50
• Council spending 22.80 22.40
  15.60 12.40
• Leadership 7.70 8.80
  8.20 10.50
• Transport 23.90 20.30
  27.10 20.00
• Urban design 8.50 4.30
  4.50 4.10
• Heritage 2.10
  .50 1.60 3.00
• Environmental sustaina 10.90 14.40
  9.30 12.20
• Total 100.00
  100.00 100.00 100.00

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• Changes to meet suggestions of Inquiry into rates
  

• Q24 Councils taking on more debt?
• 1 Yes 30.00
  31.40 . 39.10
• 2 No 70.00
  68.60 . 60.90
• Q25 Councils making more user charges
• 1 Yes 64.10
  66.30 . 59.40
• 2 No 35.90
  33.70 . 40.60
• Q26 The government paying rates on crown
  properties (eg schools)
• 1 Yes 69.40
  75.80 . 79.00
• 2 No 30.60
  24.20 . 21.00
• Q27Putting a small amount of GST into a fund to
  pay for water infrastructure
  
• 1 Yes 71.00
  73.50 . 71.70
• 2 No 29.00
  26.50 . 28.30

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How did respondents know about candidates?

• candidate brochures (37),
• Instruction booklet and candidate directory
  (34)
• newspaper ads (23),
• newspaper stories and letters (21)
• affiliations on the voting paper (13),
• personal knowledge (12)
• candidate signs (12)
• word of mouth information (10)
• public meetings (7) and finally
• websites (4),
• street meetings or mobile display (0.6).

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North Shore misc. issues

• Airport issue
• Affect of Poll