Survey results

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Survey results

• Party ID
• 36 Democrats
• 12 Republicans
• 6 Independent
• Last spring in this class it was 39 D, 20 R, 3 I
• 2008 vote
• 41 Obama (78.8)
• 11 McCain (21.2), 1 Obamican
• 1 did not vote

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Whats next?

• Electoral context big gains for Dems in 2008.
  First unified control of government for them
  since 1993.
• Overwhelming public support for Obama (over 80
  in most polls).
• However, comparisons to 1933 arent entirely
  appropriate stronger Republican opposition and
  smaller Democratic majorities.

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2008 electoral college
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2008 electoral college, corrected for relative
population
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Internal partisan politics

• Good news for Obama largest Democratic
  majorities since 1993. Bad news expanding the
  number of Democrats means bringing in more
  moderates. Role of the Blue Dogs already
  grumbling about the deficits.
• Republican response
• compromise and bipartisanship
• or repeat of the late 1980s and
• early 1990s? Can Senate
• moderates contain the more
• partisan House?

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Representation in Congress

• Descriptive and Substantive, Responsiveness and
  Responsibility (normative theory)

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Descriptive representation a Congress that
looks like us?

• Gender. Year of the woman 1992. Clarence
  Thomas hearings, Anita Hill (1991). Nearly 50
  increase in the number of women 24 new women
  House members, 5 new senators. All-male
  Judiciary Committee they just dont get it.
• Race 1992, racial redistricting. 1982 Voting
  Rights Act, Thornburg v. Gingles (1986).
• Other characteristics class, religion,
  occupation, and previous political experience.

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National leadership that looks like us
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Women in the U.S. Congress1937-2009
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Minorities in the U.S. House1937-2009
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Substantive representation

• Representation on policy outputs, serving some
  interests, whether local or national. Link
  between descriptive and substantive? Why does
  descriptive representation matter?
• Theories of representation
• delegate represent the preferences of your
  constituents,
• trustee represent what is best for the country,
  what you think is the right thing to do,
• politico mixture of the two delegate on issues
  on which constituents have intense views trustee
  on issues that are important for national
  interests.

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Representation, cont.

• Determining how to serve constituents interests.
• Objective interests needs. Differences in types
  of districts income, home-ownership, college
  education. Poverty, health.
• Subjective interests wants. What do people
  expect of their members of Congress?
  Constituency service, bring home the benefits.
  Explosion in earmarks. Link to delegate/trustee?
• Mechanisms for monitoring the constituency town
  hall meetings, polling, media, letters. One
  member said, I seldom have to sound out my
  constituents because I think so much like them
  that I know how to react to almost any proposal.
  Home style, one of us. Talk about later in
  the semester.
• Geographic vs. national representation. The
  random national constituency (Andrew Rehfeld).
  Pro and cons?

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Diversity in Congressional districts
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Diversity in Congressional districts
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Diversity in Congressional districts
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Racial Composition of the U.S.
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Median Family Income, 2001







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Percentage of Individuals below 100 of Poverty
Line, 2002







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Constituents expectations
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Representation, cont.

• Accountability
• Three faces of democratic accountability (Sean
  Theriault). First face vote with constituents,
  rewarded with reelection. Second face vote
  against constituent interests, booted out of
  office. Third face Profiles in Courage vote
  for national interests, acting like a trustee.
  May survive if member is able to convince
  constituents. Problem in measuring the second
  face? How would you go about this?
• Mechanisms for accountability fire alarm/police
  patrol. Potential challenger, activated latent
  interests.

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Representation, accountability, cont.

• Competition hypothesis (minority party provides
  accountability).
• Attention hypothesis (when constituents attend to
  the fire alarm, member more responsive).
• Retribution hypothesis member defeated for going
  against constituents (both defeat and reduced
  margin of victory).

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Representation, accountability, cont.

• Issues in measuring representational linkages
  measuring publics preferences. This issue would
  not even be raised with strong programmatic
  parties. Only because of individualistic
  political system that this is even a concern.
  How to measure?
• Direct and indirect.
• Alternatives to measuring constituent
  preferences potential challengers, anticipatory
  representation of latent opinions. Preempt
  challengers by taking their issues.
• Constituency service/home style.
• Party competition/national representation
  restless innovation. Minority party always
  looking for ways to become the majority party.

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Race and Representation representing minority
interests in a majority-rule institution

• Background on my research on this topic.
• Explaining vs. understanding.
• Role of an outsider. Question during deposition
  on race about the race of my research assistants.
  
• Shaw v. Reno (1993) and nature of representation
  assumed that the black-majority districts were
  divisive. Not consistent with what I had
  observed.

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Race and Representation

• Normative theory, legal work, and empirical
  scholars. Gaps between these subfields speak
  different languages and dont speak to each
  other.
• Racial gap on measures of objective interests
  income, poverty, health, crime, education.
  Subjective constituent interests in black
  majority districts racial, part-racial, and
  non-racial issues.
• Racial gap on subjective interests is only on
  racial and part-racial issues, not non-racial.

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Race and Representation

• Black majority districts as a vehicle for
  representing black interests. Alternative views
  multiracial society. Race is a socially
  constructed concept NYTimes Magazine story
  about the third-grader having to choose.
• Critiques of black majority districts
• From the left triumph of tokenism. Need more
  fundamental changes. Lani Guinier proportional
  interest representation. Similar to John
  Calhouns theories of concurrent majorities and
  nullification before the Civil War.

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Critiques of black majority districts, cont.

• From the right. BMDs undermine a color blind
  society and deracialization. Whites do an
  adequate job of representing black interests.
• From the center. BMDs undermine Democratic
  majorities by concentrating black voters. How
  would this work? Also, BMDs place a ceiling on
  the level of black representation that is
  possible. Role of influence districts.

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Race and Representation, cont.

• Politics of difference and the politics of
  commonality. Color blind vs. balancing
  commonality. Types of members elected in 1992.
• Examples Bennie Thompson or Cynthia McKinney
  compared to Robert Scott or Albert Wynn.

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Responsiveness vs. responsibility

• The institutional dilemma collective action
  problems when members acting in their own self
  interest undermine the collective good of
  institutional maintenance and the common
  resource of the prestige of the institution.
  Tendency for members to free ride. Run for
  Congress by running against Congress.
• The policy dilemma. Public, general interest
  versus constituent interests.

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Alternatives to legislative representation

• Dominant executive. Looming struggle over Iraq
  policy. More congressional oversight.
  Presidential signing statements.
• Direct democracy initiative and referendum. 24
  states have it. Limits of this approach
  extreme measures (jail for judges example from
  South Dakota) and many issues are too complex to
  be summarized on a ballot. Ross Perot and the
  1992 election electronic town hall meetings.