National Information Requirements

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• National Information Requirements
• Analysis Mapping Observational Elements onto
  Societal Goal Areas
• The IOOS Tree
• Mary Altalo
• Ocean.US
• 7-9 November 2006

Photo from Meteo France
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Background

• Product is an information requirements document
  which maps back to the Level 1 systems
  requirements of Agencies for sensors, systems ,
  models needed to provide a solution to a problem
  in the societal goal areas
• Employs a Systems engineering approach which
  decomposes the needs into overall requirements
  which include both sensor (observing system
  elements) as well as model requirements (modeling
  and analysis elements).
• Information on needs assessment and optimal asset
  requirements to meet the needs mined from reports
  of consensus workshops, expert discussion
  sessions, roundtables etc.
• Information presented in Tree like diagram mind
  mapping is a logical representation of the
  interconnectedness
• Used as basis for the prioritization of end to
  end Demonstration Projects in each of the
  societal goal areas according to technology
  readiness, and user need

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• Approach
• The analysis was conducted in four steps
• Based on information extracted from the sources
  listed in Appendix A, each of the seven IOOS
  societal goals was decomposed as follows
• Two or three primary objectives were identified
  for each goal. If appropriate, a primary
  objective was further decomposed into a secondary
  objective. An objective was stated using one of
  three forms
• Improve the performance of an existing
  operational capability
• Ensure or Maintain the continued performance
  of an existing operational capability that is
  affected by the ocean environment
• Protect an ocean resource
• One to eight products needs were identified for
  each objective. A product or service need could
  be
• An enhanced observation or observation set
• A new or improved estimate
• A new information item (e.g., nowcast, map,
  status, situation awareness report)
• A new analysis report (e.g., assessment,
  trending, variability over time, change
  detection, constituent identification)
• A new or more accurate forecast
• A new or improved prediction
• An improved model
• The parameters required as input to generate each
  product or service were then identified.1
• Based on information about ongoing ocean
  observation programs, current parameter
  availability was then assessed. For each
  parameter currently being observed, the
  responsible government agency or agencies were
  listed, as well as the source program or programs
  within the agencies, the responsible agency
  offices, and the estimated level of funding
  committed to the source program in FY06
• At this point all information was captured in the
  form of a mind map using the MindGenius
  software tool2.
• Gaps were identified

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Information Requirements by Societal Goal Area
Can be expanded to GEO benefit Areas as well
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Can be expanded to Policy Priorities
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Major Issues in Each Goal Area
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Public Health Track Major Product Need
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Parameter Requirements
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and to program as well as agency/provider-Need
RA input here(value of inventory)
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Other Issue Areas By Societal Goal
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Natural Hazards Track Major Product/Parameter
Need
Link to Coastal Inundation Initiative
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Sustainable Use Track Major Product/Parameter
Need
Link to an Agency Mission
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Safe Offshore Operations Track Major
Product/Parameter Need
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connected to T/S resolution i.e. requirements
Oil Industry requirements for Platform Operations
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Homeland Security Track Major Product/Parameter
Need
gap
i.e For Better SAROPS model skill
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Example of Priority Demonstration
Initiatives-Nearshore currents and waves for SAR
Application

• To Improve real time search and rescue models
  through the incorporation of real time currents,
  waves Lead Agencies- DHS CG, NOAA, Navy
• National capability enhanced- near shore currents
  and wave real time and forecasts
• Significant improvement in skill and reliability
  due to NOPP investment over past few years
• Technology deployments needed- HF Radar Network
• Model Improvements Needed for waves

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(No Transcript)
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National Capability in High Resolution Coastal
Surface Currents with HF Radar Enhancements-NOPP
Pilot Search and Rescue

• The Business Case-
• 13/day go into water, 1 dies outright, about 10
  lives saved per day, 2 more/day or 700/yr could
  be rescued if search in right area first. HF
  gives the desired resolution.
• 3 searches per day at 3 hours each/1000 per year,
  estimated 10k/search hour x 3 30Mfor searches.
  Plane flies anyway for enforcement so no savings
  from flight time reduction. All value in number
  of lives saved.
• Model presently uses currents from NDBC buoys and
  rescues about 22 persons out of 100. With high
  res HF current data pilot estimated 67 out of 100
  saved or factor of 3 improvement. Estimate 100
  more per year could be saved with High res data.
  If value of a statistical life 3M then 700
  lives x 3M 2B saved per annum.
• The Use case scenario
• Principle involves narrowing the search area
  based on USCG SAROPS tool which projects track of
  drifting objects under given environmental
  conditions including surface currents, winds and
  temperature. Refined search areas guide the
  plane. Data combined with SST to further
  prioritize search areas. CODAR data presently
  retrieved from one of 2 data hubs (Rutgers or
  Scripps) where data is qa/qc steps together
  different data into fields. NOAA creating gridded
  server in Feb serving gridded vector of current.
  CODAR allows for increase in spatial variability
  as well as reduction in error bars on the
  measurement. SAROPS tool needs prediction at 3
  and 6 hours out. The HF data can be put into a
  coastal model, but the skill of the model is
  poor. Therefore the best practice is to take
  the real time codar tides, detide, move tide
  ahead 3 hours and persist the residual, assuming
  no wind change for the 3 hours. Can also just
  persist the direction for 3 hours which gives a
  close estimate.
• Present Capability
• Need 100, presently 90 radar, research, CONUS
  only, need additional 4 per estuary if high res.
  Add 100 more for AK and Hi. Coverage complete
  next spring from Wash/Oregon to Mexico and Cape
  Hatteras to Cape Cod. Gap in coverage S. Carolina
  to Miami and Tampa to Gulfport/ 30 Texas
  covered.
• ROI
• Support comes from NSF/ONR CMP and California
  Proposition 34. 90 systems aleady in with
  investment worth 18M. There are 40 west coast
  systems but no O M money, need 8 full time
  people at 150k each to operate or 2M per year for
  O and M to operate 40 systems. If scale up then
  need 5 M/yr to operate CONUS system. Need
  capital investment of 200kper site or 2M for
  installation and hardware at the10 additional
  sites to deploy systems in Gap areas. So total
  additional investment needed for operational
  National Capability is 2M for installation and 5M
  or 7M in year 1 to get operational capability and
  then 5M per year to keep operational. If use a 2B
  savings per year as opposed to the initial 7M for
  the first year and the subsequent 5M O and M
  costs, the ROI is approximately 80 fold ROI for
  1 application.

Ref.- Art Allen, Jack Harlan, L Atkinson, ACT
workshop, Scott Glen
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• Prioritizing the Needs- Based Demonstration
  Initiatives

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We need a Timeline for the Coastal Component for
IOOS similar to the Global Component
Multi-Year Phased Implementation Plan (NOAA),
100 Requirement
2003
2004
2005
2007
2006
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Real-time Stations Initial GCOS Subset
160
155
148
136
106
126
106
Tide Gauges
91
69
67
79
1250
1250
1250
1250
1250
1250
1250
1250
779
787
Number of buoys
975
Surface Drifting Buoys
119
119
119
119
103
112
Number of moorings
91
97
Tropical Moored Buoys
83
79
86
High resolution frequently repeated lines
occupied
50
51
51
47
45
Ships of Opportunity
39
42
42
27
26
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3000
3000
3000
3000
3000
3000
3000
Number of floats
923
2900
Argo Floats
2240
1500
Number of observatories, flux, ocean transport
stations
78
46
42
43
60
41
54
52
Reference Stations
37
47
50
Ice buoys, drifting and Moored stations
94
57
54
18
24
4
4
14
40
13
12
Arctic System
Repeat Sections Completed, One inventory per 10
years
37
34
31
29
Ocean Carbon Network
22
26
4
17
20
9
15
831
882
882
659
Days at sea (NOAA contribution)
Dedicated Ship Time
492
552
492
458
458
370
468
Representative milestones including international
contributions
System Complete
98
89
81
72
63
45
48
Total System
59
59
Base Budget FY 07 Presidents Budget Planning,
Unfunded
57
55
2003
2004
2005
2007
2006
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
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Multi-Year Phased Implementation Plan (IOOS
Coastal), 100 Requirement
New National Capability
2007
2008
2009
2011
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
100
100
100
100
Surface Currents/ waves
80
90
77
IN PREPARATION FOR COASTAL
70
HF Radar
55
50
65
Representative milestones including international
contributions
System Complete
98
89
81
72
63
45
48
Total System
59
59
Base Budget FY 07 Presidents Budget Planning,
Unfunded
57
55
2003
2004
2005
2007
2006
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
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Portfolios of IOOS Program Initiatives based on
National Mission Requirements Analysis
NMR 07
Criteria for selection- Based on Development
Plans, Stakeholder needs assessments, technology
readiness and community preparedness
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2007 Portfolio of IOOS Initiatives by
Societal Goal Application Area
AG-01,02
WA-01,02
EN-01,02
Sus-01,02
Rest-01,02
PH-01,02
HS-01,02
NMR-07
HAZ-01,02
MarOp-01, 02
Cl/Wx-01,02
NMR-07
National Mission requirements
GEO GOALS
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2007 Portfolio of IOOS Initiatives
Maritime Operations Application Area
AG-01,02
WA-01,02
EN-01,02
Sus-01,02
Rest-01,02
PH-01,02
HS-01,02
NMR-07
HAZ-01,02
MarOp-01,02
Cl/Wx-01,02
NMR-07-MO-01Improve real time navigation
through real time displays of depth and winds
NMR-07
NMR-07-MO-02 Improved Offshore Platform
operations through the provision of surface
wind, wave and current forecast maps
NMR-07
GEO GOALS
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2007 Portfolio of IOOS Initiatives
Natural Hazards Application Area
AG-01,02
WA-01,02
EN-01,02
Sus-01,02
Rest-01,02
PH-01,02
HS-01,02
NMR-07
HAZ-01,02
MarOp-01,02
NMR-HAZ-01 Improved Coastal Inundation
prediction through better storm surge models
and impact assessment risk models
Cl/Wx-01,02
N
NMR-NH-02 Improved
NMR-HAZ-02 Improved Response Models and
procedures for FEMA and restoration of Basic
Services
GEO GOALS
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AG-01,02
2007 Portfolio of IOOS Initiatives
Homeland Security Application Area
WA-01,02
EN-01,02
Sus-01,02
Rest-01,02
Substantial research investment from NOPP ready
for transition
PH-01,02
NMR-07
HAZ-01,02
MarOp-01,02
Cl/Wx-01,02
NMR-07
National Mission requirements
GEO GOALS
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AG-01,02
2007 Portfolio of IOOS Initiatives
Public Health Application Area
WA-01,02
EN-01,02
Sus-01,02
Rest-01,02
PH-01,02
NMR-07
NMR-07-PH-01 Improved Swimming Beach Management
through better Pathogen, Pollution and HAB
Forecasts and tracking- HF and NWQMN
HS-01,02
HAZ-01,02
MarOp-01,02
NMR-07-PH-02 Improved Shellfish Harvesting
Management through improved HAB forecasts
Cl/Wx-01,02
GEO GOALS
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2007 Portfolio of IOOS Initiatives
Restore coastal resources
AG-01,02
WA-01,02
EN-01,02
Sus-01,02
PH-01,02
HS-01,02
Rest-01,02
NMR-07
HAZ-01,02
NMR-07-Res-01 Timely detection of changes in
extent and state of Riparian boundaries for
restoration and mitigation
MarOp-01,02
Cl/Wx-01,02
NMR-07-Res-01 Timely Coral reef change
detection for management of regional tourism,
fishing and construction industries
NMR-07
National Mission requirements
GEO GOALS
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2007 Portfolio of IOOS Initiatives
for Sustainable Use of Oceans and Coasts
AG-01,02
WA-01,02
EN-01,02
Sus-01,02
Res-01,02
NMR-07-Sus-01 Improved Fisheries Management
through better characterization of species,
stock recruitment and transport
PH-01,02
HS-01,02
NMR-07
HAZ-01,02
NMR-07-02 Improved management of coastal
Development Tourism through better industry
impact assessments
MarOp-01, 02
Cl/Wx-01,02
National Mission requirements
GEO GOALS
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Potential IOOS priorities for enhancement,
integration and transition to sustained
operations for National Applications

• Surface Currents
• Water Quality
• ETC---your input here

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Example--Nearshore currents and waves for SAR
Application

• To Improve real time search and rescue models
  through the incorporation of real time currents,
  waves Lead Agencies- DHS CG and NOAA
• National capability enhanced- near shore currents
  and wave real time and forecasts
• Technology deployments needed- HF Radar Network-
  currently 10 complete
• Model Improvements Needed
• Performance Metrics 2007
• Timelines and Phases
• Budgets

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Multi-UseCapability demonstrated through pilots
Application for Coast Guard Search and Rescue
Application for DOE/MMS renewables Program
Application for NOAA HAB Transport
Application for Fisheries Larval fish transport
Application for Navy port operations
2.
Application for ACE levee program
Application for Port Pilots
1.
New National Capability Improved Coastal
currents through national HF Radar Network
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Develop National Capability and Apply
Approach
Develop National Capability and Apply
Develop National Capability and Apply
Develop National Capability and Apply
Develop National Capability and Apply
Develop National Capability and Apply
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Interoperable Integrated Quality
Assured Reliable Efficient User Friendly
IOOS INSIDE
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Continuing steps

• Flesh out each initiatives with program plans,
  tasks, deliverables, timelines and milestones
• Develop a cost estimate and funding profile
• Develop a budget justification
• Determine leads, with roles and responsibilities
  clearly defined
• Bin agency budgets from donors and align to
  timeline
• Present them to several funding avenues such as
  NOPP, Agency, foundations, states, private sector
• Prepare the budget justification for donors
• Track donors budget process

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Other critical Issues

• Interoperability with GEOSS- ie WIS and DMAC,
  systems architecture design
• Modeling and analysis for operational the MAST
  sub element
• Transition to operations process definition

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By Benefit Area

• AS IS - what we have today
• Version 1 of optimized observing system of
  tomorrow (To Be) by region
• Outline of Approach to Reach Vision (To Be)
  through Optimization
• OSSEs
• Pilots for validation and Verification
• Improvement via integration of other data, moving
  sensors, adding sensors, improving models
• Replication
• Approach to Sustain and Evolve System
• Operational
• Evaluation of Effectiveness

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Further Thoughts

• Observing System in each region optimally
  configured for understanding
• Need to configure to answer societal problems
• Reconfigure means link components in a
  different way, not necessarily move or replace
• The Expertise to do this is in this room today

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Southwest Pacific Region
"AS IS"
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"TO BE"