Risk Assessment Contingency Endgame

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Risk AssessmentContingencyEndgame

• John N. Galayda Director of LCLS Construction
• March 30, 2009

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Risks

• Technical
• Injector through undulator system, risks are
  understood and controlled
• Electron beam systems performing well
• X-Ray systems construction complete
• Thoroughly tested functionality prior to delivery
• Risks associated with damage to optics
• Attenuator, sacrificial test coupons, spare
  mirrors
• Early ongoing testing of B4C damage threshold

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Risks

• Schedule
• Attempting to advance the schedule for AMO
  experiments compared to baseline schedule
• Accelerate commissioning of upstream hardware
• Accelerate installation
• Not a concern for CD-4
• Hutch construction schedule is on critical path
  to CD-4, with 108 days float to CD-4
• Space renovation schedule has less float, 83 days
  float to CD-4
• Schedule for contingency allocation
• Get bids for space renovation by end of April

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Risks

• Cost
• Overruns late in the project
• Perform a bottoms-up cost estimate on all
  remaining work (Nov08)
• Perform monthly EAC and contingency analysis
• FEE AMO installation
• Perform a readiness review
• Monitor detailed installation planning schedule
• Owner-directed changes (hutches)
• Perform cost estimates at 30, 60 90
• Design-to-cost A/E contract
• Space renovation
• Scope of re-habilitation of Bldgs 28 750 is
  controllable
• GMAX for new space

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Risks

• Cost
• Change orders for TCCo subs are largely
  negotiated
• 600K return on allowances
• 200K unused field change order BA
• Claims (4.6M) still the biggest risk
• Accruals for claims have been established and
  subjected to external review
• Enact endgame plans for construction budget
• Revise accruals when new information is obtained
• FEH Hutches Todays presentation
• Space renovation is last major CF cost driver

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Risks

• Safety
• New work planning process
• LCLS personnel are experienced and well-trained
• New civil construction contractors onsite
• LCLS experience, lessons learned
• X-ray commissioning
• Readiness Process

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January Contingency Analysis
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Scope Restoration Candidates
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LCLS End-Game Timeline
Design LCLS Office Space w/Options
OPA Review (DC)
Turner Punchlist Done
CD-4 (7/31/2010)
Turner Constr Comp
Award LCLS Office Space
now
Construct LCLS Office Space
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
N
A
S
O
2008
2009
2010
ETC Complete w/SXR
Construct H4 H5
H4 H5 BO
1st Light in FEH
Design H4, H5 H6
X-Rays in NEH
1st Light in FEE
Award H4 H5 H6 TBD
Timeline allows endgame scope decisions to be
made sequentially. Final scope contingency
(space renovation) includes options.
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Decision Timeline
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Normalized phase space centroid jitter after BC1
(4 of rms beam size)
RMS AyN 3.4
RMS AxN 3.9
Stability is not so far from the goal (10)
1-s beam size
D. Ratner
near end of linac (10-15 of rms beam size)
RMS AxN 14
RMS AyN 9
DE/E jitter ? 0.03 DQ/Q jitter ? 1.5
Q 0.25 nC
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Measuring Bunch Arrival Time Jitter
e-
S-band (2856 MHz)
BPM
V(t)
Q 0.25 nC
slope -2.34 mm/deg
Now measure BPM jitter both with transverse RF
OFF, and then ON (at constant phase)
Timing Jitter (w.r.t. RF) (110 mm)/(2.34
mm/deg) 0.047 deg ? 46 fsec rms
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Other Commissioning Results

• Measured effect of
• vacuum chamber
• wake fields- good
• agreement with
• predictions

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Trajectory is Straight Enough for 1.5 Angstom
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Diagnostics Working Well

• 3 nanoradian kick easily discerned
• Submicron motion of electrons easily discerned

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Predicted X-Ray FEL power, computed from electron
beam properties
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Measurements and Simulations for 20-pC Bunch at
14 GeV
Photo-diode signal on OTR screen after BC2 shows
minimum compression at L2-linac phase of -34.5
deg.
PRELIMINARY
Y. Ding
1.5 Å, 3.6?1011 photons Ipk 4.8 kA ge ? 0.4 µm
Horizontal projected emittance measured at 10
GeV, after BC2, using 4 wire-scanners.
LCLS FEL simulation at 1.5 Å based on measured
injector beam and Elegant tracking, with CSR, at
20 pC.
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20-pC Bunch at 4.3 GeV, 15 Angstrom Approaches a
Longitudinally Coherent Single Spike
z 25 m
(power profile at z 25 m varies from shot to
shot due to noisy startup)
Y. Ding
15 Å, z 25 m, 2.4?1011 photons, Ipk 2.6
kA, ge ? 0.4 µm
1.2 fs
LCLS FEL simulation at 15 Å based on measured
injector beam and Elegant tracking, with CSR, at
20 pC.
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