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Risk-based Protocols

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Title: Risk-based Protocols


1
Assessment and Communication of Chemical Risks
IGOR LINKOV ICF Consulting, Inc.,
U.S.A Ilinkov_at_icfconsulting.com
NATO 27 March 2002
2
Anatomy of a Terrorist Attack
Terrorist Activities
Parallel Response Activities
  • Threat Planning Identification
  • Threat Prevention
  • Early Detection of Event
  • Impact Mitigation

3
RD Prior to Sep 11
Agent Monitoring Methods Validation
Chem/Bio Foam Decontaminant
2001
Chemical Demilitarization
Agent Neutralization System Design/Fabrication
Personal Monitor
1990s
Military Operations in Urban Terrain
Monitoring Labs Design/Fabrication
Alternative Agent Destruction Tech Demo/Validation
1980s
M-55 Rocket Risk Analysis
Historical Focus on Event Detection/ Impact
Mitigation
Demilitarization
1970s
Proprietary Information
4
Conclusion/Message
  • Risk of terrorism is a public health issue
  • Threat planning identification and prevention
    could result in significant decrease in risks
  • Risk assessment can be used as a tool to
    prioritize and focus research
  • Spending restricted to specific issues may not be
    useful projects must benefit public health in
    general
  • Risk communication and education are among most
    important areas

5
Overview
  • Lessons Learned from Chemical Risk Assessment
  • Acute risks (chemical plants, infrastructure
    risk)
  • Chronic risks (contaminated land)
  • Risk communication and stakeholder involvement
  • Terrorism New Challenges
  • Threat planning identification
  • Threat reduction
  • Impact mitigation
  • Risk communication
  • Research Priorities
  • International Aspects

6
Risk Assessment Formulation
What can happen (go wrong)?
How likely is it?
Kaplan
Garrick
1981
What are the consequences?
Risk Assessment Formulation Works for Bio/Chem
Terrorism
7
Applications of Risk AssessmentTypes of
Situations to Which Risk Assessment is Applied
Infrastructure Interruption
Health Safety
Regulatory
Business/ Comemrcial
Environmental
Individualbehaviour
8
Risk Assessment Process
Chronic Risks
National Research Council, 1983
9
Risks/Hazard Control Options
Scenario Analyses
Risk
10
Chronic Persistent Risks
  • US EPA Superfund Program
  • established in 1980 to locate, investigate, and
    clean up the worst contaminated sites in the USA
  • risk assessment is used to help in deciding how
    to clean up sites.
  • Community Advisory Group (CAG)
  • represents diverse community interests
  • provides a public forum for community members to
    present and discuss their needs and concerns
    related to the Superfund decision-making process
  • provides local information and assist
    in making better decisions on how to
    clean up a site
  • offers EPA a unique opportunity to hearand
    seriously consider community preferences for
    site cleanup and remediation.

11
Funding Public Involvement
  • Technical Assistance Grant (TAG) program,
    intended to promote public involvement in
    decisions on site-specific cleanup strategies
    under Superfund.
  • An initial grant up to 50,000 is available for
    community at any Superfund site that is on the
    EPA's National Priorities List

12
Example 1 Former Mining Site,Vermont
  • Significant Metal contaminants
  • Significant impacts to surface water quality
  • Important historical preservation issues

Community Rural low income community Initial
reaction Leave us alone!
13
Example 2 Lake in Urban Area, Massachusetts
  • Low-level contamination from Army facilities
  • Marginal localized impacts to sediment quality

Community Affluent, well educated Initial
reaction You are going to pay for it!
14
Communicating Chronic Risks
  • Approach to risk communication
  • Monthly community meetings
  • Quarterly newsletters
  • Annual environmental open house
  • Results
  • Developed trust with community
  • Community acceptance of remedial actions at Site
    1
  • Advanced risk assessment (including probabilistic
    assessment) at Site 2
  • Conclusion Risk communication requires time and
    patience!
  • Risk education is very important
  • Involvement of technical experts and broad
    community representatives

15
Anatomy of a Terrorist Attack
Terrorist Activities
Parallel Response Activities
  • Threat Planning Identification
  • Threat Prevention
  • Early Detection of Event
  • Impact Mitigation

16
Threat Planning Identification
  • Homeland Municipal Defense Network
  • pilot study to link existing environmental
    monitoring network (soil, air, water) with public
    health/medical networks in a single grid

17
Threat Planning Identification Internet Civil
Defense Network
  • Concept developed by R. Laporte (University of
    Pittsburgh)
  • Trusted Internet networks of friends working
    together on the outlook for bioterrorism related
    precursors.

Estimated 50,000,000 participants in the USA



18
Threat Planning Identification
  • Research Need Simulation of the System Design
  • What is the level of background noise?
  • What is the lowest detectable signal?
  • How to implement Geospatial analyses and time
    dynamics?
  • How to optimize network design to reduce
    false-positive detection rates?

19
Risk Education E-Learning
  • e-learning, innovative curricula

E-learning approach provides a framework for
flexible customized bioterrorism education.
20
Risk Education Example Curriculum for
Agricultural Bioterrorism
21
Threat Prevention(Making it Harder to Implement)
  • Increased training
  • helps First Responders to recognize and respond
    to possible chemical and biological agent
    attacks.
  • Tighter control of potential chemical and
    biological threat materials
  • both material precursors and active agents are
    being put in place to reduce availability to
    potential terrorists.
  • Change in U.S. medical infrastructure
  • monitoring, reporting and treatment is being
    expanded and tested to ensure readiness in
    preparation for possible future bioterrorism
    events.

22
Threat Prevention Examples
  • Food packaging
  • Thru-wall sensors
  • Unmanned Reconnaissance
  • Individual Protection (Clothing)

23
Early Detection of Event
  • Detection Technologies originally developed for
    the U.S. military are being adapted to civilian
    applications
  • CBW Detection in the Washington D.C. subway
    system
  • Handheld chemical agent detectors are available
    to first responders
  • Near-time Biological Detection is rapidly
    advancing, but is focusing on Detect to Treat
    scenarios, not Detect to Warn, due to the
    delayed impact of the treats.
  • The first indication of anthrax in the U.S.
    Senate letters was the medical consequences.

24
Early Detection of Event
  • Chemical Agent Detectors
  • Non-Reagent Based Viral Detection Technology
  • Rapid Detection of Bacteriological Agents

Artists Concept of a Portable Virus Detection
Device being developed by ADL
25
Impact mitigation
  • Technologies originally developed to contain
    Improvised Explosive Devices are being expanded
    to counter Chemical and Biological dispersion
    threats
  • Vaccines to counter potential biological threats
    are being fast-tracked to ensure a timely
    response capability
  • Several decontaminant products are under
    development to counter civilian chemical and
    biological warfare agent attacks
  • ADL CB decontaminant foam
  • Sandia decontaminant foam

26
Impact mitigation
  • foam

27
Biological Weapon Production Facilities in the
Former Soviet Union
28
Organizations Capable of Producing Bio/Chem
Warfare Agents
Research Objective Database Creation?
29
International Risk EducationUse of Internet
30
International Risk Education Example Supercourse
  • SUPERCOURSE-collection of lectures on prevention,
    shared for free by the best faculty in the world.
    Developed by Dr. LaPorte and the Supercourse team
    (University of Pittsburgh)
  • URL www.pitt.edu/super1
  • RUSSIAN SUPERCOURSE, collection of lectures in
    Russian, designed to target audience in Russia
    and other countries of former Soviet Union
  • Current Status
  • 620 lectures
  • 5000 faculty members from 120 countries
  • SUPERCOURSE on Terrorism?

31
Conclusion/Message
  • Risk of terrorism is a public health issue
  • Threat planning identification and prevention
    could result in significant decrease in risks
  • Risk assessment can be used as a tool to
    prioritize and focus research
  • Spending restricted to specific issues may not be
    useful projects must benefit public health in
    general
  • Risk communication and education are among most
    important areas

32
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