Title: Risk-based Protocols
1Assessment and Communication of Chemical Risks
IGOR LINKOV ICF Consulting, Inc.,
U.S.A Ilinkov_at_icfconsulting.com
NATO 27 March 2002
2Anatomy of a Terrorist Attack
Terrorist Activities
Parallel Response Activities
- Threat Planning Identification
- Threat Prevention
- Early Detection of Event
- Impact Mitigation
3RD Prior to Sep 11
Agent Monitoring Methods Validation
Chem/Bio Foam Decontaminant
2001
Chemical Demilitarization
Agent Neutralization System Design/Fabrication
Personal Monitor
1990s
Military Operations in Urban Terrain
Monitoring Labs Design/Fabrication
Alternative Agent Destruction Tech Demo/Validation
1980s
M-55 Rocket Risk Analysis
Historical Focus on Event Detection/ Impact
Mitigation
Demilitarization
1970s
Proprietary Information
4Conclusion/Message
- Risk of terrorism is a public health issue
- Threat planning identification and prevention
could result in significant decrease in risks - Risk assessment can be used as a tool to
prioritize and focus research - Spending restricted to specific issues may not be
useful projects must benefit public health in
general - Risk communication and education are among most
important areas
5Overview
- Lessons Learned from Chemical Risk Assessment
- Acute risks (chemical plants, infrastructure
risk) - Chronic risks (contaminated land)
- Risk communication and stakeholder involvement
- Terrorism New Challenges
- Threat planning identification
- Threat reduction
- Impact mitigation
- Risk communication
- Research Priorities
- International Aspects
6Risk Assessment Formulation
What can happen (go wrong)?
How likely is it?
Kaplan
Garrick
1981
What are the consequences?
Risk Assessment Formulation Works for Bio/Chem
Terrorism
7Applications of Risk AssessmentTypes of
Situations to Which Risk Assessment is Applied
Infrastructure Interruption
Health Safety
Regulatory
Business/ Comemrcial
Environmental
Individualbehaviour
8Risk Assessment Process
Chronic Risks
National Research Council, 1983
9Risks/Hazard Control Options
Scenario Analyses
Risk
10Chronic Persistent Risks
- US EPA Superfund Program
- established in 1980 to locate, investigate, and
clean up the worst contaminated sites in the USA - risk assessment is used to help in deciding how
to clean up sites. - Community Advisory Group (CAG)
- represents diverse community interests
- provides a public forum for community members to
present and discuss their needs and concerns
related to the Superfund decision-making process - provides local information and assist
in making better decisions on how to
clean up a site - offers EPA a unique opportunity to hearand
seriously consider community preferences for
site cleanup and remediation.
11Funding Public Involvement
- Technical Assistance Grant (TAG) program,
intended to promote public involvement in
decisions on site-specific cleanup strategies
under Superfund.
- An initial grant up to 50,000 is available for
community at any Superfund site that is on the
EPA's National Priorities List
12Example 1 Former Mining Site,Vermont
- Significant Metal contaminants
- Significant impacts to surface water quality
- Important historical preservation issues
Community Rural low income community Initial
reaction Leave us alone!
13Example 2 Lake in Urban Area, Massachusetts
- Low-level contamination from Army facilities
- Marginal localized impacts to sediment quality
Community Affluent, well educated Initial
reaction You are going to pay for it!
14Communicating Chronic Risks
- Approach to risk communication
- Monthly community meetings
- Quarterly newsletters
- Annual environmental open house
- Results
- Developed trust with community
- Community acceptance of remedial actions at Site
1 - Advanced risk assessment (including probabilistic
assessment) at Site 2 - Conclusion Risk communication requires time and
patience! - Risk education is very important
- Involvement of technical experts and broad
community representatives
15Anatomy of a Terrorist Attack
Terrorist Activities
Parallel Response Activities
- Threat Planning Identification
- Threat Prevention
- Early Detection of Event
- Impact Mitigation
16Threat Planning Identification
- Homeland Municipal Defense Network
- pilot study to link existing environmental
monitoring network (soil, air, water) with public
health/medical networks in a single grid
17Threat Planning Identification Internet Civil
Defense Network
- Concept developed by R. Laporte (University of
Pittsburgh) - Trusted Internet networks of friends working
together on the outlook for bioterrorism related
precursors.
Estimated 50,000,000 participants in the USA
18Threat Planning Identification
- Research Need Simulation of the System Design
- What is the level of background noise?
- What is the lowest detectable signal?
- How to implement Geospatial analyses and time
dynamics? - How to optimize network design to reduce
false-positive detection rates?
19Risk Education E-Learning
- e-learning, innovative curricula
E-learning approach provides a framework for
flexible customized bioterrorism education.
20Risk Education Example Curriculum for
Agricultural Bioterrorism
21Threat Prevention(Making it Harder to Implement)
- Increased training
- helps First Responders to recognize and respond
to possible chemical and biological agent
attacks. - Tighter control of potential chemical and
biological threat materials - both material precursors and active agents are
being put in place to reduce availability to
potential terrorists. - Change in U.S. medical infrastructure
- monitoring, reporting and treatment is being
expanded and tested to ensure readiness in
preparation for possible future bioterrorism
events.
22Threat Prevention Examples
- Food packaging
- Thru-wall sensors
- Unmanned Reconnaissance
- Individual Protection (Clothing)
23Early Detection of Event
- Detection Technologies originally developed for
the U.S. military are being adapted to civilian
applications - CBW Detection in the Washington D.C. subway
system - Handheld chemical agent detectors are available
to first responders - Near-time Biological Detection is rapidly
advancing, but is focusing on Detect to Treat
scenarios, not Detect to Warn, due to the
delayed impact of the treats. - The first indication of anthrax in the U.S.
Senate letters was the medical consequences.
24Early Detection of Event
- Chemical Agent Detectors
- Non-Reagent Based Viral Detection Technology
- Rapid Detection of Bacteriological Agents
Artists Concept of a Portable Virus Detection
Device being developed by ADL
25Impact mitigation
- Technologies originally developed to contain
Improvised Explosive Devices are being expanded
to counter Chemical and Biological dispersion
threats - Vaccines to counter potential biological threats
are being fast-tracked to ensure a timely
response capability - Several decontaminant products are under
development to counter civilian chemical and
biological warfare agent attacks - ADL CB decontaminant foam
- Sandia decontaminant foam
26Impact mitigation
27Biological Weapon Production Facilities in the
Former Soviet Union
28Organizations Capable of Producing Bio/Chem
Warfare Agents
Research Objective Database Creation?
29International Risk EducationUse of Internet
30International Risk Education Example Supercourse
- SUPERCOURSE-collection of lectures on prevention,
shared for free by the best faculty in the world.
Developed by Dr. LaPorte and the Supercourse team
(University of Pittsburgh) - URL www.pitt.edu/super1
- RUSSIAN SUPERCOURSE, collection of lectures in
Russian, designed to target audience in Russia
and other countries of former Soviet Union - Current Status
- 620 lectures
- 5000 faculty members from 120 countries
- SUPERCOURSE on Terrorism?
31Conclusion/Message
- Risk of terrorism is a public health issue
- Threat planning identification and prevention
could result in significant decrease in risks - Risk assessment can be used as a tool to
prioritize and focus research - Spending restricted to specific issues may not be
useful projects must benefit public health in
general - Risk communication and education are among most
important areas
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