Title: Extent and Nature:
1- Lecture 4
- Extent and Nature
- Self-Reports
2recap 3 pictures
- General trends (refer to UCR figures in last
lecture) - Most youth crime is property crime
- Overall rise since 1960s violent rise in
80s-90s, decline since late 1990s
3bivariate correlates of youth crime
- Age property peak at 16 violent later at 17-18
- Sex males are 85 of violent index 75 total
- Race African-Americans over 40 of all violent
index - interaction of age, sex, and race
African-American males aged 14-24 make up 15 of
homicide victims and 27 of offenders. This group
is about 1 of the population - Ethnicity Latino overrepresentation in murder
(?) - Class kids from low-income census tracts most
arrested - Chronics 6 of male population responsible for
50 of arrests - Local trends fewer violent as percent of total
but percent violent increased until mid-90s
4problems with police picture
- "Dark Figure" or tip of the iceberg- most youth
crime is concealed (e.g. drug use) or unreported
(e.g. theft) - Systematic versus random error
- Changing norms and expectations (marijuana,
prostitution) - Changes in police priorities or "crackdowns"
- Police professionalization as emergent process
- No information on group offending
- Local biases, misclassifications
- UCRs stop at arrest stage (cases dropped)
- If multiple crimes by same offender, only most
serious reported - No federal crimes in UCR (comparatively minor
flaw)
5self-reports a second picture of delinquency
- Key Concepts
- Prevalence (participation) and
- Incidence (frequency)
- Monitoring the Future
- 50,000 students in 400 schools each year since
1975 - drug use, delinquency, and attitudes
- Methodology
- sampling and external validity
- response bias and internal validity
- operationalization
- measuring rape
6 bivariate correlates
- Age
- Sex
- Race/Ethnicity
- Social Class
- Chronics/High-incidence offending
- Group delinquency or co-offending
7Self-Reported Use of Gun or Knife to Get
Something by Sex (Armed Robbery), 1980-2003
8Self-reported Taking Something Worth over 50 by
Sex (Larceny), 1980-2003
9Self-reported Taking Something Worth less than
50 by Sex (Petty Theft), 1980-2003
10Self-Reported Use of Gun or Knife to Get
Something by Race (Armed Robbery), 1980-2003
11Self-reported Taking Something Worth over 50 by
Race (Larceny), 1980-2003
12Self-reported Taking Something Worth less than
50 by Race (Petty Theft), 1980-2003
13lifetime use 2003 12th graders
- Alcohol
- Cigarettes
- Any illicit drug
- Marijuana
- Amphetamines
- Tranquilizers
- Cocaine
- MDMA (X)
- LSD
- Methamphetamine
- Steroids
- 77
- 54
- 51
- 46
- 14
- 10
- 8
- 8
- 6
- 6
- 4
14class self-report survey
- CLASS SELF-REPORT SURVEY
- Disclaimer
- Overview of findings
- Calculating Prevalence and Incidence
15index crimes
prevalence prevalence incidence incidence
n f avg
INDEX PERSONAL
rape 0 0 0.0 0.0
robbery 6 7 18.0 0.2
agg. assault 14 17 29.0 0.4
INDEX PROPERTY
burglary 8 10 18.5 0.2
larceny-theft 26 32 72.5 0.9
auto theft 21 26 41.5 .5
arson 3 4 8.0 0.1
INDEX SUBTOTAL 2.3
16other nonindex
prevalence n prevalence n incidence f avg incidence f avg
assault 22 27 44.5 0.5
weapon 10 12 28.0 0.3
vandalism 45 55 103.0 1.3
solicitation 0 0 0.0 0.0
petty 5-50 52 63 188.0 2.3
petty lt5 61 74 224.0 2.7
"OTHER" SUBTOTAL 7.2
17substance use
prevalence n prevalence n incidence f avg incidence f avg
cocaine 15 18 51.5 0.6
marijuana 58 71 267.0 3.3
lsd/mushroom 16 20 39.0 0.5
dist.liquor 52 63 197.0 2.4
dealer-mj 23 28 66.5 0.8
dealer-nonmj 8 10 34.0 0.4
DRUG SUBTOTAL 8.0
18Average Incidence of Self-Reported Delinquency by
Sex in Soc 4141 Spring 2005
19Sex and Self-Reported Total Delinquency in
Uggen's JD Classes
20Sex and Self-Reported Index Crimes in Uggen's JD
Classes
21Self-Reported Delinquency in Uggen's Juvenile
Delinquency Classes
22GROUP EXERCISE ON SRD
- Form groups of 3-5
- Discuss hypotheses on handout
- Hand in 1 sheet of paper signed by all
23Critique of Self-Report Studies
- Data problems
- Reliability?
- Internal validity reverse record checks
- External validity or generalizability
- Few analogous ADULT measures of self-reported
crime (yet)
24next
- Victimization
- Cobain book