Voting and Elections

1
Voting and Elections

• 3 November, 2008

2
Whats at Stake

• Presidency
• House of Representatives
• All 435 seats
• Democrats currently have a 15 seat majority (233
  seats) and could increase their majority by 20-30
  seats.
• U.S. Senate
• 35 seats in the U.S. Senate
• Democrats currently have a 1 seat majority
• 23 of the contested seats are held by
  Republicans.
• Democrats need to pick up 9 seats to stop
  filibuster
• Governors Races
• 11 states
• State legislative races
• Statewide ballot measures

3
Options for Electing the President
0

• Congress chooses the president
• State legislatures choose the president
• President elected by popular vote
• Electoral College

4
How it works
0

• Each state was allocated a number of Electors
  equal to the number of U.S. Senators (always 2)
  plus the number of U.S. Representatives (which
  changes)
• The manner of choosing the electors was left to
  the individual state legislators. By 1836 all
  states (except for South Carolina) choose
  electors by popular vote (plurality rules).
• The candidate with a majority of electoral votes
  is elected president
• In the event that no candidate wins a majority,
  the U.S. House of Representatives would choose
  from the top five contenders. Each state could
  cast only one vote. An absolute majority is
  required

5
The 2000 Presidential Election
0
Bush 271 Gore 266 (270 needed to win)
6
The 2004 Presidential Election
0
Bush 286 EV (51)/ Kerry 252 EV (48) 270 EV
needed to win
A change in Ohio (with 20 electoral votes) would
have given Kerry the presidency even though Bush
would have received a majority of the popular vote
7
Unequal Representation
Source Robert A. Dahl, How Democratic is the
American Constitution?
8
Adjusting for State Population
0
9
The Tracking Polls as of November 3

• Obama 51, McCain 44 (DemCorps 10/3011/2)
• Obama 51, McCain 43 (NBCWSJ 11/1-2)
• Obama 52, McCain 42 (Gallup 10/31-11/2)
• Obama 54, McCain 41 (CBS 10/30-11/1)
• Obama 54, McCain 43 (ABCPost 10/29-11/1)

10
Link to CNN map
11
(No Transcript)
12
Will Obama have coattails?

• Typically about 90 percent of House incumbents
  are reelected
• In the Senate, 78.6 percent have won reelection
  in the postwar period
• Even in years very unfavourable to one of the
  parties, a large majority win. In 1994, the
  Democrats worst year since 1946, 84 percent won.
  In 2006, 87 percent of the Republican incumbents
  in the House were returned to office.

13
Congressional Races to Watch

• Open seats (where no incumbent is running) are
  typically the most competitive
• U.S. Senate (5 seats all held by Republicans)
  Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado, Nebraska, Idaho,
• U.S. House (32 seats) 26 held by Republicans.
  However, many of those retiring represent safe
  Republican districts.

14
Senate Races to Watch

• Nevertheless, of the 23 Republican Senate seats,
  7 are competitive 1 is a tossup (Minnesota) and
  3 are leaning Republican (Georgia, Kentucky,
  Mississippi)
• Only 1 Democratic seat (Louisiana is competitive)
• See Map of Senate Races

15
(No Transcript)
16
When the polls close add 5 hours)
17
The Florida Disaster
0

• Florida recount (link to Univ. of Chicago study)
• The punch card voting system
• Design of the palm beach ballot

18
The Butterfly Ballot
0
19
Evidence of problems in Palm Beach
0
20
Voter Turnout

• U.S. turnout in comparative perspective
• Lower for congressional elections than
  Presidential elections
• Decline in voter turnout
• How low is it? Does it matter?
• The role of age and education

21
Turnout in Comparative Perspective
See also Fiorina et al. Table 6.1, p.140
22
Trends in Voter Turnout
23
Voting is the most common form of political
participation

• Many people also talk about politics and try to
  persuade others to vote
• Very few participate in any other specific way.

24
The U.S. in Comparative Perspective
Source Comparative Study of Electoral Systems
(CSES), Module 2, 2004
25
(No Transcript)
26
Why is voter turnout so low?

• Electoral system
• Voter attitudes
• Lack of convenience
• Difficulty of registration

27
(No Transcript)
28
Electoral College

• How it works
• Majority (270) of the 538 electoral votes to win
• Past results
• 2004 election (Bush 286/Kerry 251)
• 2000 election (Bush 271/Gore 266)
• States to watch
• Pollster.com