Climate change: current policies and economic growth

1
Climate change current policies and economic
growth

• What Way Forward to Ensure Both?
• HUNGARY

2
AGENDA

• KYOTO IN TRANSITION COUNTRIES
• ACTUAL CHALLENGES
• FUTURE CHALLENGES

3
KYOTO TARGETS

• Hungary and other TRANSITION COUNTRIES

4
GMG emissions 2002 vs. 1990
5
Annex I countries
6
ANNEX I countries

• Average Delivery of Promise -6
• GAP
• Developed economies (USA,Germany UK)
• Achievement based on Kyoto Protocol Germany
  UK (350 bln tpa)
• USA
• Transition countries (New 10 EU countries,
  Russia)
• Result happened aside of Economic crisis,
  bankruptcy of companies, Shut down of plants
• Russia finnaly signed Kyoto Protocol

7
CO2 and GHG Emission in Hungary

• Commitment -6 vs avg of 1985-87 emission

8
Consequencies

• Hungarian industry has not to buy CO2
• No cost increase becasue buying
• Hungary will sell CO2 quota
• Increase of Hungarian Budget
• Environmental standards
• Hungary must keep these rules due to our EU
  membership
• Hungary will be a follower and not a
  decision-maker in pricing
• Kyoto goals must apply for all new Investment
  and modernisation

9
Quota allocation vs. other countries
10
Quota Allocation vs. New EU10
11
Hungary is 1 of the 4 from 25

• Only 4 member states sell quota in Auction
• Denmark4
• Hungary 2,5
• Lithuania 1,4 ?
• Ireland 0,75
• Auction has its own cost

12
Challenges
13
Sectors in Hungary
Electricity and Heating
14
of Nuclear in WE
15
of Nuclear in some NEW 102
16
FUTURE CHALLENGES
17
Future Energy needs

• Brutto energy growth 2/year 60 TWh
• before 2010 power plants must stop due to EU
  standards 1300 TWh
• 2012 PAKS Nuclear Power Plant
• Lifetime extension 8 growth due to Investment
  achievable
• Closure -2000 MW
• Additional Need 6000 MW by 2020
• In the case of traditional Power plant the CO2
  emission is minimum 11 mln Tpa
• Renewable can contribute, but can not close the
  GAP
• THE PLANNING DID NOT START YET, POLITICAL PARTIES
  ARE TOO MUCH DIVIDED TO ACHIEVE A COMPROMISE

18
GDP growth in Hungary

• We achieved the 1989 GDP level in 1998 only
• From 2000 the GDP growth declines
• Till 2010 we forecast 4 of average growth ( too
  optimistic)
• Cost of agening society will grow after 2010
• Due to the RATKO children
• Due the low wages and Black market

19
WHAT CAN WE DO?

• POLITICS MUST UNDERSTAND THE NEED
• POLITICS HAVE TO GET A NATIONAL MINIMUM
  COMPROMISE TO BUILD A NEW POWER PLANT(S)
• KYOTO TARGETS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH MUST BE
  HARMONISED
• ALL ENERGY SECTOR MUST ALLOW TO DEVELOPE
• PAKS NUCLEAR POWER PLANT MUST GET GREEN LIGHT TO
  CONTINUE
• WE CAN NOT ACHIEVE IT WITHOUT STRONG SUPPORT FROM
  EUROPEAN POLICY MAKERS