Title: Ecosystem Health in a Climatically-Altered World
1Ecosystem Health in a Climatically-Altered World
Is Species Rescue Part of the Prognosis for
the FutureAmerican Meteorological Society
Environmental Sciences Seminar, DC, Oct.
2008Dr. Camille Parmesan
Integrative Biology,
University of Texas at Austin
2Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Attribution question Causal link between
biological changes and anthropogenic climate
change? Impacts question Are changes negative,
neutral or beneficial? Proportion of
biodiversity affected at given point? Vulnerabilit
y question Which species most at risk? Which
regions most sensitive? Effectiveness of reserve
system?
3Linkages Among Environmental Issues
Ozone Depletion
Climate Change
Habitat Loss
Biodiversity Impacts
Sulfate Aerosols
Nitrogen inputs
Desertification
Water
Air pollution
4- Assessing Climate Change Impacts
- Multiple anthropogenic forces (confounded)
- Climate change
- Land use change
- Habitat loss (urbanization, agriculture)
- Increases in N, P, C, uv
- - focus on studies in undisturbed areas
- Variable quality (sampling, missing data, spatial
and temporal scales) naturally high yearly
variance - Most data short term, local scale (generality?)
- - meta-analyses, focus on broad patterns
- Positive publishing bias
- - focus on multi-species studies
5ATTRIBUTION by INFERENCE
- Correlational Patterns
- natural experiments --- does yearly variation
in climatic patterns (mean temperature, climate
weather extremes) correlate strongly with yearly
variation in biological patterns? - Long-term patterns (100 years) --- do range
shifts and timing shifts matche temperature
shifts? - Field Manipulations
- How do manipulations of thermal and precipitation
environment affect individual fitness,
population persistence and colonization success? - Laboratory Experiments
- How does temperature/precipitation affect growth,
survival and reproduction - Are there absolute thresholds for temperature and
precipitation ?
6Another Type of Fingerprint 100 of Species
Showed Temporal Sign-Switching (n44
Parmesan Yohe Nature 2003)
7Number of publications documenting a response of
a species, community or system to recent climate
change
2006 review of global biological impacts
publications 866 species several thousand
Parmesan 2006, Annual Reviews Ecology Evolution
and Systematics
8Whole Range Study of 57 Species Across Europe
Parmesan et al. (1999). Poleward shift of
butterfly species ranges associated with
regional warming. Nature 399579-583.
965 of 52 species had colonized northward at
northern range boundary (30-200 km, 30-100
years, 0.6 C warming)
- Purple emperor (Apatura iris)
2 independent invasions
Parmesan et al. Nature, 1999
Ryrholm unpub. Kaila Kullberg pers. Comm.
Henriksen Kreutzer 1982
1022 of 40 species contracted at southern range
boundaries 1 species range reduction
- Sooty copper (Heodes tityrus)
Parmesan et al. Nature, 1999
11Purely Ecological Responses Appear to Dominate
- Desert orange tip colonized Spain
- (Colotis evagore)
- Historically occasional vagrant from Africa
- Continuous populations in Spain since 1983
- Specialist of hot micro-climates
- lab - needs 164 degree days (gt12C)
- lab - no evolution of diapause
- field lab - no host switching
Jordano et al (2000) J Biogeography
12Tropical species have moved into USA from Central
America, into Europe from Africa
Florida 4 new species of dragonflies
(1960-2000) Paulson
2001
- Rufous hummingbird
- Migrant 1900-1990
- Resident by 1996
- Colonized 400 km inland by 1998
- Hill et al. 1998, Howell 2002
Texas 5 new species of butterfly Mexican
jay now resident
????
13Some Evidence of Diseases of Wildlife Expanding
Poleward Upward
- Oyster parasites (protozoa Perkinsus marinus
Haplosporidium nelsoni) expanded 500 km
northward along US Atlantic coast in past 20
years, causing mass mortality - - disease outbreaks limited by winter
temperatures lt 3 C
(Ford 1996, Hofmann et al. 2001) - Kidney disease of brown trout linked to reduced
catches at low elevation streams in
Switzerland - correlated with high temperatures, gt 15 C
- (Hari et al. 2006)
14Andean Glacial Retreat 3 species of frogs
fungus migrated 400 m upward over 70 years
(0.3 C /decade)
1931
Pleurodema marmorata
Bufo spinulosus Telmatobius marmoratus Chytr
id fungus
5000 m
2005
5400 m
Seimon et al. GCB 2007
15Arctic Sea Ice down by 40 in 2007 (Area half
of lower USA lost) 2-3 C
Magenta line mean 1979-2000 6.74 mil Sq miles
NOAA, National Snow Ice Data Center
16- Ringed Seal
- Declines in abundance (Hudson Bay, Alaskan coast)
- Polar bear
- Need 2 kg fat / day
- Land animals berries too lean
- Lengthening of ice-free season
- Lengthening of summer starvation period
- Declines in abundance weight, Hudson Bay
- Declines weight cubs, Alaska
Norway
Stirling et al 1999 Derocher et al 2004
Derocher 2005 Ferguson et al 2005
17Changes in Sea Ice Driving Species Range Shifts
Ice-dependent species declining by 70 - 95
- Ice-adapted Adelie Emperor
- moving poleward
- Warm-adapted Chinstrap Gentoo
- Arrived 20-50 years ago
Ice-dependent species increasing or smaller
declines (lt20)
Smith et al. Bioscience 1999 Fraser et al. Polar
Biol. 1992 Emslie et al. Ant. Science 1998
18- Mountaintop Species
- Sensitive to Heat
- Losing habitat as they are forced to
contract upward
- American pika
- Live only gt 7,500 feet
- Eat constantly
- Adults killed by gt 31 C ( 90 F)
- Lowest elevation populations have gone extinct
significantly more than higher elevations (0.7
C warming)
Smith 1974, Beever et al. 2003
19Observed Changes in Wild Plants and Animals
N 1598
Parmesan Yohe,
Nature 2003
20Extinction of the Golden toad in Monteverde Costa
Rica
- Population crashes followed years with
unusually high dry days, especially
gt 5 dry days (mist free) in a row - No evidence of chrytid fungus at any time
- Climate modeling suggests lifting of cloud forest
- Upward shifts of lowland birds into Monteverde
cloud forest
Pounds et al. Nature 1999
21Exceeding SST thresholds causes bleaching Tahiti
threshold SST 29.2 C Hoegh-guldberg,
Marine Freshwater Research 1999
22Most negatively affected species / systems
74 species of high elevation cloud forest frogs
extinct
30 of tropical coral reefs gone ?? Species
Parmesan Annual Reviews Ecology Evolution and
Systematics 2006 IPCC 2007
23Evolution towards warm-adapted symbiont has
occurred in Panama in response to 97/98 El Niño
Baker et al 2004
24Trends in timing of spring events among northern
temperate species
later
mean 2.8 days/ decade advance
earlier
n 203 timespan 17 - 99 years
Parmesan (2007) Global Change Biology
25Kunkel et al. 2003
26Trends in Mean Seasonal Climate 1901 - 2005
(IPCC 2007)
27Lengthening growing season, warm winters pests
Warmer winters, northward ranges shifts of moths
and beetles, and extended growing seasons have
resulted in increased forest pest outbreaks and
loss of wood productivity
- Mountain pine beetle (Colorado, British
Columbia) - Spruce bark beetle (3.8 million acres killed in
Alaska) - Pine Processionary moth (Italy, France)
- forest pests in Siberia
1Parmesan Yohe 2003, Root et al. 2003, Parmesan
2007 2 IPCC 2001, Logan et al. 2003, Battisti et
al. 2005,
28Ediths checkerspot butterfly range has shifted
northward 92 km and upward 124 m during the 20th
c.
Most extinctions in south and at low
elevations Historical records 1860-1980 Census
1993-1996 green present purple extinct
Parmesan Nature, 1996
29Ediths checkerspot (Euphydryas editha) Patterns
of population extinctions in natural areas (good
habitat)
30Trends in Mean Annual Climate 1901 - 2005
(IPCC 2007)
temperature
precipitation
31- Changes in spring timing driving range shift in
Ediths checkerspot (Euphydryas editha) - ----- Warming Causes Asynchrony
- 2 C experimental warming causes timing
mismatch (3 indpt. field experiments) - Host plants dry up 3-7 days earlier,
- caterpillars starve
- normal 90-95 mortality goes to 100
--- population extinctions in south --- northward
shift of mean location of populations by 92 km
Singer Science 1972, Weiss et al. Ecology
1997, Boughton et al. 1999, Parmesan Nature 1996
32Temperature projections, IPCC 2007
33Projected Impacts 2 C
- Extinctions of most sensitive species estimated
species losses range from 4 for common,
widespread trees and birds to 40 for sensitive
species with small ranges. - Large contractions of boreal habitats,
extinctions of associated species (e.g. caribou,
polar bear, ringed seal) - Major bleaching of most tropical coral reefs
- Overall projected extinction of 20 of species
- Increased incidences of tropical diseases in USA
and Europe - Lower agricultural productivity at lower
latitudes (some of USA), but increases at higher
latitudes (Canada).
34Projected Impacts 4 C
- Complete loss of suitable climate space for a
large number of species (e.g. from polar bears to
montane tree possums in Australia) and whole
ecosystems (e.g. the fynbos in South Africa) - Mass extinction of wild species worldwide (on the
order of gt70) - High ocean temperatures combined with increased
acidity lead to complete loss of tropical coral
reefs with associated loss of fisheries and
tourism - Loss of much of boreal forests and associated
lumber industries - Lowered agricultural production at all latitudes
35- IUCN Consensus on some susceptibility factors
- Species with severely bounded distributions
under highest risk - - mountain tops, low-lying islands, high
latitudes, edges of continents - - restricted ranges
- poor dispersal relative to predicted nearest
suitable climate space - IUCN Red List now includes climate change as
risk factor, even though doesnt fit standard
methods of assessment
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37Assisted Colonization? A Decision Framework
Hoegh-guldberg et al. Science 2008
38E.e. quino - Newly discovered sites all higher
elevations than previously recorded for quino
(gt 4500 ft, yellow circles) -
appears to be undergoing host- plant shift
towards species that occurs only at higher
elevations
39Best Candidates for Assisted colonization /
migration
- High risk of extinction if nothing done
- Low probability of doing harm to recipient
community - NOT a predator / parasite
- Relatively poor competitor
- non-aggressive (behavior or growth)
- Resource specialist
- Easy cheap to capture, culture move
- High inherent biological or societal value
40Euphydryas gilletti successful assisted
colonization
- In 1970s, moved from native Wyoming to outside
of range in Colorado - same climate, same host plant (honeysuckle)
- Established stable population with few egg
clusters - No recorded negative impacts on native
ecosystem
41Summary of Observed Responses 0.7 C rise
globally since 1900
- 41 of species studied have shifted their
species ranges poleward and/or upward - 62 of species studied have shifted towards
earlier spring breeding, migrating, leafing,
blooming, etc. - Every major group studied has been affected
- trees, shrubs, herbs, butterflies, birds,
mammals, amphibians, marine corals,
invertebrates, fish plankton - Impacts on every continent, in every major ocean
- Northward range shifts from 50 - 1600 km, and
upward shifts of up to 400 m have occurred
Parmesan Yohe Nature 2003 Parmesan, C.
Ecological and evolutionary responses to recent
climate change. Annual Reviews of Ecology and
Systematics 37637-669 IPCC 2007
42Summary of Projected Impacts
- 2 C (strong action)
- Extinctions of most sensitive species and
systems - 4 C (little action)
- Widespread extinctions, loss of whole ecosystems
- Either scenario, doing nothing carries risks
- Conventional conservation inadequate
- Assisted colonization should be an option
known risk to target species must be
weighed against unknown risks to recipient
communities
43Acknowledgements
Collaborators (raw butterfly bird data,
conceptualization, climate analyses) D Bauer, D
Boughton, H Descimon, DR Easterling, PR Ehrlich,
J Emmel, H Galbraith, JK Hill, O
Hoegh-Guldberg, B Huntley, Hinkley, L Kaila, T
Karl, J Kullberg, JJ Lennon, J Matthews, G
Meehl, S Matoon, DD Murphy, B Pyle, N Ryrholm,
O Shields, MC Singer, C Stefanescu, T Tammaru,
J Tennent, CD Thomas, JA Thomas, M Warren, B
Wee, G YoheGeneral support University of
Texas, Centre National de la Recherche
Scientifique (Montpellier) Carnegie Instutute,
Aspen Global Change Institute, San Diego NHM,
American MNH, Smithsonian MNH, British MNH,
LAMNH, UC Davis, CornellMaterial and Images
partly from The Millennium Atlas of
Butterflies in Britain and Ireland (Asher et al.
2001) Field Guide to the Butterflies of
Britain Europe (Higgins Riley 1970) Atlas
of Finnish Macrolepidoptera (Hulden et al.
2000) The Butterflies of Scandinavia in Nature
(Henriksen Kreutzer 1982) A World of
Butterflies (Schappert 2000) Environmental
Sciences Institute, University of Texas
United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change NASA Ove Hoegh-Guldberg
Kristina Schlegel Nelson Guda (artists)
44Human health impacts from climate change operate
through biodiversity changes
45 Biodiversity Change and Human HealthFrom
Ecosystem Services to Spread of Disease
Editors Osvaldo E. Sala, Laura Meyerson and
Camille Parmesan (Island Press, 2008)
46Quality of Life
Medicines Genes
Health Well Being
Biodiversity
Physical Health
Infectious Disease
Ecosystem Services
47Quality of Life
Medicines Genes
Health Well Being
Physical Health
Infectious Disease
Biodiversity
Ecosystem Services
48Impacts on Human Health Highly Dependent on
Social Factors
Ozone Depletion
Wealth
Climate Change
Habitat Loss
Sanitation
Quality of Medical system
Health Impacts
Biodiversity Impacts
Sulfate Aerosols
Access to Medical System
Overgrazing
Demographics
Nitrogen inputs
Hydrology changes
Vector control
Air pollution
49Oysters can be Deadly in Hot Waters
- Vibrio vulnificus Bacteria occur in oysters in
Gulf of Mexico - 30 - 48 of people who get ill die
- 60 of variation in abundance related to water
temperature - 89 of humans ill from V. vulnificus from eating
oysters caught in waters gt 22 C (78 F) - Hurricanes Rita Katrina formed in Gulf 4 C
hotter than normal - Geographic variation in thermal ecology?
- Experimental evidence for effects of temperature
of Vibrio vulnificus growth and survival?
50Cholera Associated with El Niño in Bangladesh
1980 - 1996
Pascual 2000
51Vector-borne diseases
- For common diseases with epidemics linked to
climate, 67 are transmitted by a wild animal
vector, or are dependent on wild animals as
resevoirs for some life history stage - Tick that carries lyme disease, shifted northward
SW - Oyster parasite moved 500 km N, US Atlantic coast
- Well-documented studies in SW USA desert
El Niño years wet
increased rodent densities plague and hanta
virus outbreaks in humans
Cleveland et al. 2001 Gubler 2001, WHO 2003,
2004, Parmesan Martens 2008, Ford 1996
1 Engelthaler et al. 1999, Parmenter et al. 1999,
Glass et al. 2000, Gulber et al. 2001
52Extra bits follow
53Very Severe Declines in Ice-adapted Species
- Ringed Seal
- Declines in abundance
- Polar bear
- Declines in abundance, weight cubs
- Ice-adapted Adelie Emperor
- contracting at South Pole
- Warm-adapted Chinstrap Gentoo
- Arrived 20-50 years ago
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55Option 1. Wide spread and common species.
Continue and improve conventional conservation
approaches
Decision 1. What is the risk of significant
decline or extinction under climate change?
Projections Problem relative low rate of
adaptation and dispersal Example, mountain top
species (see text) Ref IUCN.
low
Option 2. Genetic enhancement to improve climate
robustness of populations within existing
geographic range.
moderate
Option 3. Invoke ex situ conservation
practices
high
no
Decision 2 Is establishment technical
possible? difficulties of establishment
(symbioses, close associates etc). Is
establishment technical possible?
no
Option 4. Create habitat (e.g. artif. Reef,
wetlands) and/or experiment with translocation
into novel habitats (informed guesses)
yes
Decision 3. Do benefits of translocation
outweigh the costs? Are there any socio-economic
constraints that render this impossible? Risks to
native biodiversity and ecosystems services at
target site (including disease, competition,
predation) Depletion of source populations and
socio-economic considerations (numbers of
individuals available, feasible, animal welfare,
costs, Are the expected benefits greater than the
expected costs e.g. impacts on other species
(hybridizations).
no
Will the organisms arrive on their own to new
habitat
yes
Option 5. Wait and facilitate establishment
(protect arrivals)
no
Go to options 2 and 3
yes
Option 4. Undertake translocation.
Assisted Colonization Hoegh-guldberg et al. 2008
56Estimated More than Half of Wild Species have
Responded to 20th c. Climate Change
(36 studies gt1700 species
1598 datapoints)
Parmesan Yohe (2003). A globally coherent
fingerprint of climate change impacts in natural
systems. Nature 42137-42.
57- Northward shift of the winter range of the Sachem
Skipper butterfly - caterpillars killed by
- Single event 1/2 hr lt
-10 C - Several hours lt - 4 C
- Colonization in real time shows no evolution of
temperature tolerance or life history - Lisa Crozier (2003)
Oecologia, (2004) Ecology
58- Issues to Consider when Interpreting Trends
- Non-response has multiple causes
- Species not sensitive to climate
- Poor data resolution - no power
- lag time
- Barriers to dispersal (habitat fragmentation)
- Genetic or physiological constraints - prelude to
extinction - Small ? Unimportant
- Weak but persistent forces will have a major
impact on long-term trajectories, perhaps more
than strong but short-lived forces.
59Checquered skipper
Population extinctions (orange color) in southern
UK and Finland caused by land use change (no more
coppicing). But, at both northern and southern
boundaries of species range populations, where
habitat is still good, are present and healthy
(blue color). So species is NOT impacted by)
climate change (stable), even though its a
listed endangered species. Parmesan et al (1999)
Nature
60ATTRIBUTION by INFERENCE Example Euphydryas
editha butterfly
- Correlational Patterns - YES
- Long-term patterns (100 years) --- range shift
matches temperature isotherm shift and matches
changes in snowpack dynamics
(Parmesan 1996, Karl et al. 1996,
Johnson 1998) - natural experiments (40 years) --- below 2400
m, population extinctions occur in drought years
and following false springs (light snowpack).
Above 2400m, booms occur with heavy snowpack - (Singer Ehrlich 1979, Singer
Thomas 1996, McLaughlin et al. 2002) - Field Manipulations - YES
- manipulating thermal environment affects
individual fitness and colonization success
(Singer 1972, Weiss et al. 1988, 1993,,
Boughton 1999) - Laboratory Experiments - YES
- temperature affects larval growth (Weiss et al
1988, Hellmann 2000)
61Confounding Factors
- NO - Genetic diversity not different in
populations that went extinct compared to those
that didnt - NO - Age of population (record)
- NO - Population size (habitat size)
- NO - Population isolation
- NOT STRONGLY - Topography
- NO - Human influences
- Habitat degradation
- Secondary effects of urbanization
- YES - Resource use
- host plant genus DOES affect likelihood of
extinction, but not responsible for range shift