The Road to the White House

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The Road to the White House

• Selecting our President

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Every Four Years...

• Each party nominates a candidate for President
  and Vice President
• The incumbent usually isnt challenged within
  his/her party
• Popularity of the incumbent effects quality of
  opponent for the other party
• The process is somewhat complicated and long.

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Step One Self Announcement
Republicans
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Step One Self Announcement
Democrats
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Step Two Campaign for Party Nomination

• Each party will hold a convention to determine
  their presidential and vice presidential
  candidates
• To win your partys nomination you need a
  majority of the delegates at the convention to
  vote for you.

Democrats 4339 delegates/2170 to win
nomination Republicans 2066 delegates/1034 to
win nomination
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Winning Delegates

• Delegates are chosen through three methods for
  the Democrats and two for the Republicans
• Each states party decides how their delegates
  are to be selected
• Each state gets delegates based on formula
  including population and success of party in that
  state
• There are a number of variables that a state
  needs to decide

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Distributing Delegates

• How the delegates are distributed -
• winner-take-all
• proportional
• How the delegates are listed on the ballot
• candidates name
• delegates name
• Who can vote for the delegates
• primary
• caucus

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Primary

• State pays for the election
• Closed- must identify party identification to
  vote in primary
• Open - any registered voter may vote -but only in
  one of the partys primary.
• More democratic than caucus but allows
  independent voters into party selection process

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Primary

• Regional and early primaries is the trend
• Super Tuesday - early March
• Have winner early in process - why?
• Intra party fighting has tremendous affect -
  Bush/Reagan 1980

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Caucus

• Must be a party member to vote
• Election is paid for by the party
• Single-tier v. Multi-tier
• Less democratic but party controls nomination
  process

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Superdelegate

• Democrats only
• Elected officials from Congress, state and local
  government automatically get to go to convention.
• Gives advantage to mainstream candidates

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First state to chose delegates

• Primary - New Hampshire
• Caucus - Iowa
• Are these reflective of the nation?
• Why do they want to be first?

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Must Win Early

• Very expensive to run
• Band wagon effect - have to get momentum so get
  donations
• Dates of primaries and caucuses
• Michigan and Calf. moved up to have more
  influence
• parties have moved up to decide winner earlier

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Step Three National Convention

• Location is very important
• Parties pick a state that is very important to
  general election
• Try to generate positive media coverage in that
  state
• Democrats Los Angeles, Calif.
• Republicans Philadelphia, Penn.

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Step Three National Convention

• Several tasks for Convention but most important
  are selecting president and unifying party
• Today there is no suspense the front runner has
  locked up the nomination - dark horse - favorite
  son
• Most candidates drop out by convention -
  exceptions Buchanan - Kennedy

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Step Three National Convention

• Who are the delegates?
• Many are elected officials
• 1968 Democratic Convention and changes in who
  goes to the convention
• Impact of primaries on who attends
• Democrats have rule- equal number of women and
  proportional minorities
• Republicans do not have quotas

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Planning the National Convention

• The National Committee appoints committees to
  plan the convention and choose the site.
• Credentials committee decides which delegates
  will be seated - 1972 Democrats

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Planning the National Convention

• The rules committee proposes the rules of the
  convention - 1980 Democrats
• The platform committee proposes the platform -
  1992,1996 and 2000 Republicans - abortion

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National Convention Schedule

• Monday -
• rules of the convention
• credentials accepted or amended
• keynote speech/address
• Tuesday -
• platform - can be very controversial
• runner-up speech - Buchanan 1992

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National Convention Schedule

• Wednesday -
• nomination speeches - Ribicoff 1968 Clinton
  1988
• roll-call - state by state
• Thursday -
• vice presidential candidate selected - formality
  only - pres. candidate
• acceptance speeches - Carter 1976

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National Convention Schedule

• Friday -
• select national committee
• usually chairperson is selected by sitting
  president if from the party
• Unity is VERY important -
• need to unite party - all wings
• 1980 - Kennedy left wing - Dem.
• 1992 Buchanan right wing - Rep.

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Step Four National Campaign

• First Tuesday after the first Monday in November
• Strategy for winning election
• Electoral College
• Campaign in bigger states - Nixon 1960

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Step Four National Campaign

• Ways of campaigning
• personal appearances - whistle stop
• testimonials - stars - family - state political
  leaders
• media ads - positive and negative
• debates
• who is invited - Perot 1992
• televised - 1960
• affect voters? - Donaldson -Ford 1976

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Step Four National Campaign

• Polls
• began in 1948 - Truman/Dewey
• candidates run their own
• Spin on events that happen
• campaign managers and handlers
• its the economy stupid

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Step Four National Campaign

• Financing
• PACs - special interest
• Individuals and limits
• Political parties
• Independent organization
• Soft money
• Public financing

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Step Five Election Day

• Electoral College
• 538 votes - each state gets equal to
  representation in Congress - see page 342
  Magruders
• Must win majority - 270

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1992 Election
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1996 Election
Electoral
Popular
Clinton
379
49.2
Dole
159
40.7
Perot
0
8.4
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Electoral
Popular
Bush
271
47.9
Gore
267
48.4
2.7
Nader
0
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County Map of 2000 Election
Bush RED Gore BLUE
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Defects in Electoral College

• One - winner-take-all can produce winner that
  does not reflect popular vote (Maine and
  Nebraska) see handout next slide

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Defects in Electoral College

• One - winner-take-all can produce winner that
  does not reflect popular vote (Maine and
  Nebraska) see handout
• Two - faithless electors - 1976, 1988
• Three - House of Representatives may decide
  election if no majority - 1800 1824 (1876
  special situation)

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Supreme Court

• Supreme Courts role
• Bush v. Gore
• Florida election
• Question of state v. federal determination

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Defects in Electoral College

• Supreme Courts role
• Bush v. Gore
• Florida election
• Question of state v. federal determination

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Reforms for Electing President

• One - district plan - Nebraska Maine
• Two - proportional plan
• small states over represented
• Three - national bonus plan
• Four - direct election of the president
• third parties - no majority - many elections have
  not had majority, 1960, 1968, 1992, 1996

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Electoral College

• The Electors meet in their respective states in
  December (mandated by Congress) to vote
• The results are sent to the Congress on January
  6th, read by the President of the Senate (Vice
  President) in joint session of Congress.

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President takes office

• On January 20th the President is sworn in by the
  Chief Justice of the Supreme Court

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The End