American Government and Organization

1
American Government and Organization

• PS1301
• Friday, 30 January

2
Public Interest in the 2000 Presidential Election
3
Importance of Early Primaries

• Momentum
• Depends on expectations

4
Expectations in NH
Source NH Poll, American Research
Group http//americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/dem/
5
Voters in New Hampshire
6
Past experience

• Underdogs have seen their support rise from an
  early win in Iowa and NH.
• Carter in 1976 (up 12 percent)
• Hart in 1984 (up 27 percent)
• Tsongas in 1992 (up 26 percent)
• Buchanan in 1996 (up 20 percent)
• McCain in 2000 (up 15 percent)

7
Impact of Iowa and NH

• Only Carter won the nomination
• In every year since 1980 the front-running
  candidate who led in the last poll conducted
  before Iowa still ended up winning the
  nomination.
• Compact schedule (front loading) can kill the
  momentum from New Hampshire

8
Impact of New Hampshire Primary
9
Opinion about the Candidates
10
Front loading

• 70 of all delegates are chosen before the end of
  March
• Benefits the front runner
• Benefits the candidate who can raise the bulk of
  the money before the nomination process
• Increases the importance of the invisible
  primarythe year prior to the official
  nomination season when candidates raise money

11
Beginning Schedule in 2004

• JANUARY 19, 2004Iowa - Presidential Caucuses
• JANUARY 27, 2004New Hampshire - Presidential
  Primary
• FEBRUARY 3, 2004Arizona - Presidential
  PrimaryDelaware - Presidential PrimaryMissouri
  - Presidential PrimaryNew Mexico - Presidential
  CaucusesOklahoma - Presidential PrimarySouth
  Carolina - Presidential Primary
• FEBRUARY 7, 2004Michigan - Presidential
  CaucusesWashington State - Democratic
  Presidential Caucuses

• FEBRUARY 8, 2004Maine - Presidential Caucuses
• FEBRUARY 10, 2004District of Columbia -
  Democratic Presidential CaucusesTennessee -
  Presidential PrimaryVirginia - Democratic
  Presidential Primary
• FEBRUARY 17, 2004Wisconsin - Presidential
  Primary

12
Web resource

• Washington Post
• CNN Election report

13
Deck is stacked against outsiders, under dogs

• Half of the Republican delegates awarded after
  the first six weeks.
• News coverage and public interest fades shortly
  after the primary season begins

14
The Republican Primary in 2000
15
Democratic Delegates

• The Democratic Party allots a number of delegates
  to each state based on population (as measured by
  electoral college votes) and the number of votes
  the Democratic presidential candidate received in
  the last general election. The party assigns
  states additional delegate slots, called
  "Superdelegates," for Democratic elected
  officials, party leaders and Democratic members
  of Congress. Superdelegates are included in the
  totals
• Delegates needed to win 2,162
• Total Delegates 4,322

16
Delegate Selection Rules