Thin film solar technologies: prospects, opportunities, forecasts

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Thin film solar technologies prospects,
opportunities, forecasts Dr Harry
Zervos h.zervos_at_idtechex.com IDTechEx
www.idtechex.com
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Humanitys core problems in 2050

• ENERGY
• WATER
• FOOD
• ENVIRONMENT
• POVERTY
• TERRORISM WAR
• DISEASE
• EDUCATION
• DEMOCRACY
• POPULATION

2003 6.3 Billion People 2050 8-10
Billion People
Global energy demands are currently unsatisfied
Source Richard Smalley, Energy Nanotechnology
Conference, Houston.
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Reduction of environmental impact
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Energy Security Fossil fuels pricing
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Need for new technologies in PV

• The increasing demand for crystalline solar
  modules cannot be met due to an allocation lack
  of raw silicon on the global markets.
• This in turn leads to a shortfall in production
  coupled with higher and continually rising
  prices. Thus, suppliers of solar modules in
  particular become enormously dependent on
  previous stages of the value chain
• A typical crystalline solar cell uses a silicon
  wafer 200 to 300 microns thick. Si-PV presently
  consumes 10 to 15 metric tons of silicon per
  megawatt of solar cells produced
• Si can not meet requirements such as tightly
  rollable or transparent

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Need for new technologies in PV

• Process sequence for
• thin film module
• manufacturing
• Process sequence for
• silicon module manufacturing

Source AVANCIS
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Energy Payback time

• The time taken for the PV cell to recoup the
  energy that was expended in its production
• - CdTe 1.1 Years
• - CIGS 1.2 years
• - Silicon 1.7 -2.7 years

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New Applications

• Ubiquitous, Flexible, Large Area PV
• Need of flexible, printable technologies that can
  guarantee
• - Cheap, easy, quick manufacturing
• - Cheap raw materials

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Flexible
Ubiquitous Solar power
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Photovoltaics room for many technologies
Feeding the electricity grid long life, low
cost per watt over life
InGaAs?
Organic?
DSSC?
PV paint
CIGS? Nano Si?
CIGS?
Organic?
Tightly rollable, medium life low upfront cost
for eg mobile phone
DSSC?
Organic?
InGaAs?
DSSC?
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Choice of technologies

• Crystalline silicon
• Amorphous silicon
• Cadmium telluride
• Copper indium diselenide CIS family, notably
  copper indium gallium diselenide CIGS
• Dye sensitised solar cells DSSC
• Organic polymer or small molecule
• Others such as silicon nanoparticle ink, carbon
  nanotube CNT and quantum dots

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Thin Film PV Technologies

• nanoparticle Si
• CIGS/CIS
• CdTe
• DSSCs
• Organic PV

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Best Cell Efficiencies
Source NREL
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• Markets

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Global Solar markets
-Germany dominates the solar market in
Europe -Strong growth in other European
countries, especially in southern Europe, will
see Germany's share fall to about 50 percent in
the next few years. -Photovoltaic (PV) power
plants could be supplying 26 million households
in the Mediterranean with electricity by 2020.
-In 2040, PV could represent 25 of global
electricity consumption.
Source EPIA
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Global Solar markets
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Global Solar markets
Source BSW Solar
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Global Solar markets
Source BSW Solar
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German Market

• International PV companies are also drawn to
  Germany by its network of producers, suppliers,
  and research institutes
• Nanosolar, Signet Solar, First Solar, ARISE
  Technologies Corporation

• Source Invest in Germany

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Germany the biggest market China the biggest
production hub

• 1200.6 MW

• China

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Top 6 thin film solar cell producers in 2007 (MW)
CdTe
a-Si
a-Si/µ-Si
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However, only East Asia has many giant companies
involved in non-silicon PV devices
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Factors too important to be ignored...

• Price of Silicon
• Efficiency of thin film technologies
• Government Incentives

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Building Integrated Photovoltaics (BIPV)

• Big opportunity for TFPV
• Incentives (very strong in Metropolitan France,
  double the feed-in tariff than in the case of
  Non-BIPV

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Energy from the Desert

• Very large scale photovoltaic power generation
  (VLS-PV) systems
• Case-studies of both virtual and real projects
  based on selected regions (including the
  Mediterranean, Sahara, Chinese Gobi, Mongolian
  Gobi, Indian Thar, Australian Desert and the US)

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Markets by Sector
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For further information

• Annual Conferences
• Photovoltaics Beyond Conventional Silicon
  USA June 2009, Denver, USA
• Printed Electronics Asia 8-9 October 2008 in
  Tokyo, Japan
• Printed Electronics USA 3-4 December 2008 in San
  Jose, CA, USA
• www.idtechex.com/conferences/
• Daily news analysed by experts Printed
  Electronics World
• www.idtechex.com/PEWorld
• IDTechEx also carries out tailored projects
  markets, competition, technology forecasting,
  acquisition and investment targets, fund raising

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For further information

• Reports
• Printed and Thin Film Photovoltaics and Batteries
• Technologies, Forecasts and Players
• by Dr Harry Zervos Dr Bruce Kahn