Early Early Warning

1
Early Early Warning Prof. B. de Gaay Fortman
2
ECONOMIC STRUCTURE Poor resource base (pressure
on resources) Indices on productivity
entitlement Indicators HDI (related to
GDP) Population -composition -land carrying
capacity Income distribution -quintiles ratio
Stylised fact
INTRA-STATE VIOLENCE in different manifestations
...
.
3
ECONOMIC STRUCTURE Poor resource base (pressure
on resources) Indices on productivity
entitlement Indicators HDI (related to
GDP) Population -composition -land carrying
capacity Income distribution -quintiles ratio
Stylised fact
INTRA-STATE VIOLENCE in different manifestations
...
.
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ORDER -Supra-state
shifts in entitlement
4
STATE -effective presence -legitimacy -entitlement
systems -collective sector
ECONOMIC STRUCTURE Poor resource base (pressure
on resources) Indices on productivity
entitlement Indicators HDI (related to
GDP) Population -composition -land carrying
capacity Income distribution -quintiles ratio
Stylised fact
INTRA-STATE VIOLENCE in different manifestations
...
.
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ORDER -Supra-state
shifts in entitlement
5
CIVIL SOCIETY -trade unions -churches -political
parties
Quality of Politics
STATE -effective presence -legitimacy -entitlement
systems -collective sector
ECONOMIC STRUCTURE Poor resource base (pressure
on resources) Indices on productivity
entitlement Indicators HDI (related to
GDP) Population -composition -land carrying
capacity Income distribution -quintiles ratio
Stylised fact
INTRA-STATE VIOLENCE in different manifestations
...
.
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ORDER -Supra-state
shifts in entitlement
6
CIVIL SOCIETY -trade unions -churches -political
parties
Quality of Politics
STATE -effective presence -legitimacy -entitlement
systems -collective sector
Relative deprivation theory Resource mobilization
theory Entitlement systems analysis
ECONOMIC STRUCTURE Poor resource base (pressure
on resources) Indices on productivity
entitlement Indicators HDI (related to
GDP) Population -composition -land carrying
capacity Income distribution -quintiles ratio
Stylised fact
INTRA-STATE VIOLENCE in different manifestations
...
.
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ORDER -Supra-state
shifts in entitlement
7
CIVIL SOCIETY -trade unions -churches -political
parties
Quality of Politics
STATE -effective presence -legitimacy -entitlement
systems -collective sector
Relative deprivation theory Resource mobilization
theory Entitlement systems analysis
ECONOMIC STRUCTURE Poor resource base (pressure
on resources) Indices on productivity
entitlement Indicators HDI (related to
GDP) Population -composition -land carrying
capacity Income distribution -quintiles ratio
Stylised fact
INTRA-STATE VIOLENCE in different manifestations
...
.
CULTURAL IDENTITY FACTORS -ethnicity -religion -p
artiarchy -nationalism
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ORDER -Supra-state
shifts in entitlement
8
CIVIL SOCIETY -trade unions -churches -political
parties
Quality of Politics
STATE -effective presence -legitimacy -entitlement
systems -collective sector
Relative deprivation theory Resource mobilization
theory Entitlement systems analysis
ECONOMIC STRUCTURE Poor resource base (pressure
on resources) Indices on productivity
entitlement Indicators HDI (related to
GDP) Population -composition -land carrying
capacity Income distribution -quintiles ratio
Stylised fact
INTRA-STATE VIOLENCE in different manifestations
...
.
CULTURAL IDENTITY FACTORS -ethnicity -religion -p
artiarchy -nationalism
HISTORICAL CONTEXT -colonialist
policies -conflict in the past
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ORDER -Supra-state
shifts in entitlement
9
CIVIL SOCIETY -trade unions -churches -political
parties
Quality of Politics
STATE -effective presence -legitimacy -entitlement
systems -collective sector
Divisive ideologies
Relative deprivation theory Resource mobilization
theory Entitlement systems analysis
ECONOMIC STRUCTURE Poor resource base (pressure
on resources) Indices on productivity
entitlement Indicators HDI (related to
GDP) Population -composition -land carrying
capacity Income distribution -quintiles ratio
Divisive leadership
Stylised fact
INTRA-STATE VIOLENCE in different manifestations
...
.
Refugees
CULTURAL IDENTITY FACTORS -ethnicity -religion -p
artiarchy -nationalism
HISTORICAL CONTEXT -colonialist
policies -conflict in the past
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ORDER -Supra-state
shifts in entitlement
Revenge
10
CIVIL SOCIETY -trade unions -churches -political
parties
Quality of Politics
STATE -effective presence -legitimacy -entitlement
systems -collective sector
Divisive ideologies
Relative deprivation theory Resource mobilization
theory Entitlement systems analysis
ECONOMIC STRUCTURE Poor resource base (pressure
on resources) Indices on productivity
entitlement Indicators HDI (related to
GDP) Population -composition -land carrying
capacity Income distribution -quintiles ratio
Divisive leadership
Stylised fact
INTRA-STATE VIOLENCE in different manifestations
...
.
Refugees
CULTURAL IDENTITY FACTORS -ethnicity -religion -p
artiarchy -nationalism
HISTORICAL CONTEXT -colonialist
policies -conflict in the past
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ORDER -Supra-state
shifts in entitlement
MILITARY -arms proliferation
GEO_POLITICAL SITUATION -global -regional
Revenge
11
CIVIL SOCIETY -trade unions -churches -political
parties
Quality of Politics
STATE -effective presence -legitimacy -entitlement
systems -collective sector
Divisive ideologies
MEDIA -propaganda -press freedom
Relative deprivation theory Resource mobilization
theory Entitlement systems analysis
ECONOMIC STRUCTURE Poor resource base (pressure
on resources) Indices on productivity
entitlement Indicators HDI (related to
GDP) Population -composition -land carrying
capacity Income distribution -quintiles ratio
Divisive leadership
Stylised fact
INTRA-STATE VIOLENCE in different manifestations
...
.
Refugees
CULTURAL IDENTITY FACTORS -ethnicity -religion -p
artiarchy -nationalism
HISTORICAL CONTEXT -colonialist
policies -conflict in the past
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ORDER -Supra-state
shifts in entitlement
MILITARY -arms proliferation
GEO_POLITICAL SITUATION -global -regional
Revenge
12
CIVIL SOCIETY -trade unions -churches -political
parties
Quality of Politics
STATE -effective presence -legitimacy -entitlement
systems -collective sector
Divisive ideologies
State control
MEDIA -propaganda -press freedom
Relative deprivation theory Resource mobilization
theory Entitlement systems analysis
ECONOMIC STRUCTURE Poor resource base (pressure
on resources) Indices on productivity
entitlement Indicators HDI (related to
GDP) Population -composition -land carrying
capacity Income distribution -quintiles ratio
Divisive leadership
Stylised fact
INTRA-STATE VIOLENCE in different manifestations
...
.
Refugees
CULTURAL IDENTITY FACTORS -ethnicity -religion -p
artiarchy -nationalism
HISTORICAL CONTEXT -colonialist
policies -conflict in the past
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ORDER -Supra-state
shifts in entitlement
MILITARY -arms proliferation
GEO_POLITICAL SITUATION -global -regional
Revenge
13
CIVIL SOCIETY -trade unions -churches -political
parties
Quality of Politics
STATE -effective presence -legitimacy -entitlement
systems -collective sector
ECONOMIC ORDER
Divisive ideologies
State control
MEDIA -propaganda -press freedom
Relative deprivation theory Resource mobilization
theory Entitlement systems analysis
ECONOMIC STRUCTURE Poor resource base (pressure
on resources) Indices on productivity
entitlement Indicators HDI (related to
GDP) Population -composition -land carrying
capacity Income distribution -quintiles ratio
Divisive leadership
Stylised fact
INTRA-STATE VIOLENCE in different manifestations
...
.
Refugees
CULTURAL IDENTITY FACTORS -ethnicity -religion -p
artiarchy -nationalism
HISTORICAL CONTEXT -colonialist
policies -conflict in the past
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ORDER -Supra-state
shifts in entitlement
MILITARY -arms proliferation
GEO_POLITICAL SITUATION -global -regional
Revenge
14
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POOR
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