Gwinnett Unified Plan

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Gwinnett Unified Plan

• Presentation to
• Georgia Planning Association
• October 2, 2008

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What Dooms Most Comprehensive Plans to Failure?

• Many, if not most plans treat land use and
  transportation separately
• Most are based on a community vision that is
  possible, but not plausible
• There is seldom, if ever, a validation of the
  plan against the future economic potential of the
  community

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How is Gwinnetts Unified Plan Different?

• Combines the Comprehensive Plan, Comprehensive
  Transportation Plan, and the (HUD) Consolidated
  Plan into one planning effort.
• Uses a Scenario-based approach to create possible
  futures, instead of a future vision based on the
  desires of a select group of people
• Forecasts land use based on market realities
• Tests the plausibility and fiscal impact of each
  Scenario using economic modeling

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What Is a Scenario?

• A plausible Future that results from a series of
  Driving Forces and Assumptions about how Current
  Trends may vary in the future
• Obviously, there can be an infinite number of
  Scenarios or plausible Futures
• We chose three
• The Regional Economy Will Decline
• The Regional Economy Will Continue as It Has
• The Regional Economy Will Improve

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Regional Slowdown Scenario
An Unacceptable Outcome

• Regions growth slows
• Gwinnett gains only 30 more people 27 more
  jobs
• More transient population fewer long-term
  residents
• Average income growth slows
• Limited neighborhood reinvestment

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Middle of the Pack Scenario
Most Likely Future without Intervention - So
plan for it also!

• Region continues to prosper current trends
  continue, but
• County average income declines
• Offers little relief from congestion
• No resources to address redevelopment
• Gwinnett gains 47 more people 53 more jobs
• Entire County on public sewer
• Truly diverse community, no dominant majority
• Fairly low density development

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International Gateway Scenario

• US economy strong Region has massive job growth
• Gwinnett gains 76 more people 106 more jobs
• Expand transit options
• International/multicultural segments of workforce
  grow
• High rises at key nodes mixed-use development
  along major roads
• Redevelopment of older areas

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Unified Plan is Based on Rigorous Economic and
Fiscal Modeling

• To project expansion of County Land use under
  varying economic conditions, and
• To determine the impact of the Plan on the Tax
  Digest

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Make-up of Consulting Team

• Project Lead Parsons Brinkerhof, Quade
  Douglas, Team Manager Uri Avin, FAICP
• HNTB
• Moreland Altobelli
• Robert Charles Lesser Co.
• J. Cochran Co., LLC
• Tom Hammer, PhD (Forecasting)
• Ventana Marketing
• Georgia Tech Dan Immergluck, PhD
• Georgia State University Robert J. Eger III,
  PhD
• Facet Decision Systems
• Bay Area Economics
• Gray-Calhoun Associates

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Beyond ConsultantsKey Staff Members Included

• Glenn Stephens, Director, Planning and
  Development
• Bryan Lackey, Deputy Director
• Steven A. Logan, AICP, Director of Planning
• Nancy Lovingood, AICP, Manager of Long-Range
  Planning
• Patrick Quinn, Manager of Planning Data Services
• Jeff West, Manger of Current Planning
• James Pugsley, Planner III
• David Gill, Planner III
• Rebecca Peed, Planner II

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Technical Advisory Committee

• A Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) Comprised
  of
• Impacted County Departments,
• Medical Community,
• Municipal Representatives,
• School System, and
• Economic Development Director

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Background Trends and Assumptions Include
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Continued but slower growth
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Incomes Continue their Trend
Households in Each Regional Quintile as a Percent
of Total Households
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and Gwinnett will continue to diversifyPercent
Distribution of Population by Ethnic/Racial Group
Ethnic/Racial information required by HUD for
Consolidated Plan submission
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Assumptions of the Model

• Fire, Police, and general govt expenditures
  directly affected by constituent wealth.
• Service demand within specific land use type
  varies across Gwinnett, but constant across time.
• Persons/household same for each residl land use
  type and same across unincorp. Gwinnett.
• Income distributions differ across Gwinnett.
• Revenue contributions differ by land use type.

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Management Costs and Revenue Allocations

• Focus is on contribution of revenues
• and expenditures by land use

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Comparison Outcomes (without interventions)

• WebFit Model
• Slowdown Scenario
• Surplus in 2030
• 9 million
• 2 of revenues
• Middle Scenario
• Deficit in 2030
• 7 million
• 0.7 of revenues
  
  
• Gateway Scenario
• Deficit in 2030
• 44 million
• 4.6 of revenues

• Enhanced Model
• Slowdown Scenario
• Deficit in 2030
• 358 - 532 million
• 43.7 - 64.9 of revenues
• Middle Scenario
• Deficit in 2030
• 111 - 192 million
• 12 - 21 of revenues
• Gateway Scenario
• Deficit in 2030
• 63 - 81 million
• 6.5 - 8 of revenues

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Enhanced Fiscal Model

• Builds on the existing WebFIT model
• Does not consider capital income or costs
• Adjusts for level of police and fire services
• Based on supporting evidence and interviews
• Adjust poverty spending
• Poverty spending includes
• Public health
• Public welfare social services
• Community development

• Includes increased costs of non-poverty spending
  such as police services, fire services, and
  general government

• Weighted for service need in sub-county areas

(Sub-county areas used for analysis only-not
used in intervention recommendations)
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Beyond Economics

• Transportation Modeling
• Water and Sewer Modeling

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(No Transcript)
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Sewer Impacts-Change in FlowFrom 2003 Master Plan
Regional Slowdown
International Gateway
Middle of the Pack
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Intervention Development and Testing (slide 1)

• Creation of the Planning Advisory Committee (PAC)
• 25 Individuals chosen
• to represent various interest groups in the
  County
• to represent ethnic diversity of the County
• PAC developed interventions or policies to
  address the various dynamics presented by the
  Scenarios
• Economic/Fiscal and Land Use Models were then
  calibrated to account for the Interventions

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Intervention Development and Testing

• Focus Groups were used to test the Interventions
  among various ethnic groups (Hispanic, Korean,
  Viet Namese, and African-American)
• Public Information Meetings (PIMs) were held to
  solicit feed-back from the general public.

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Major Themes of the Unified Plan

• Maintain Economic Development and Fiscal Health
• Foster Redevelopment
• Maintain Mobility and Accessibility
• Provide More Housing Choice
• Keep Gwinnett a Preferred Place

DRAFT
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Maintain Economic Development and Fiscal Health
DRAFT
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Maintain Economic Development and Fiscal Health

• Promote Major Mixed-Use Developments
• Protect Large, Well-Located Parcels/Areas for
  Office
• Strategic Placement of Sewer
• Revise Current Millage Rates
• Promote University Parkway as R D Corridor
• Employ Debt Financing of Major Infrastructure
• Obtain Appropriate Balance of Retail
• (TDR shown on Housing Map)
  
  
  
  

DRAFT
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Foster Redevelopment
DRAFT
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Foster Redevelopment

• Institute a Variety of Redevelopment Incentives
• Promote Densification in Specific Areas
• Use Tax Allocation Districts (TADs)
• Promoted Shared Infrastructure Facilities
• Allow corner stores within specified Med/High
  Density Areas

DRAFT
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Maintain Mobility and Accessibility
DRAFT
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Maintain Mobility and Accessibility

• Enhance Signal Coordination and Intelligent
  Transportation Systems (ITS)
• Manage Access on Arterials
• Enhance Incident Management (Traffic Control
  Center)
• Establish Road Connectivity Requirement
• Create Transit-Oriented Development at
  Appropriate Sites
• Establish a More Extensive Transit System
• Pursue Strategic Road Widening and New Alignments
  
  
  

DRAFT
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Provide More Housing Choice
DRAFT
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Provide More Housing Choice

• Establish and Provide Access to More Executive
  Housing
• Preserve Existing Workforce Housing
• Expand Maintenance and Rehabilitation Assistance
  to Homeowners and Small Businesses
• Use Transfer of Development Rights (TDR)

DRAFT
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Keep Gwinnett a Preferred Place
DRAFT
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Keep Gwinnett a Preferred Place

• Improve the Walkability of Gwinnetts Activity
  Centers and Neighborhoods
• Support and Promote the Expanded Four Year
  College
• Invest in After School Programs
• Enhance Development Aesthetics
• Provide Venues to Celebrate Growing Cultural
  Diversity of the County
• Expand Presence of Arts Community
• Provide Incentives for Enhanced Openspace/Trails
• Use Development Regulations to Create Local Parks
• Acquire Surplus Industrial or Commercial Sites
  for Open Space/Recreation

DRAFT
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Composite Map
DRAFT
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Next Steps

• Held public information meetings at 4 sites
  around county in August.
• Final Meeting with PAC was held September 18,
  2008
• PB Revised Draft and Submitted Final Draft
  (September 08)
• Present Final Draft to Board of Commissioners
  (October 7, 2008)
• Public Hearings (November 08)