Title: Climate change, adaptation, and M
1 Climate change, adaptation, and ME framework
ILRI and the CGIAR H. Ade Freeman International
Livestock Research Institute
International Workshop on Evaluating Climate
Change and Development Alexandria, Egypt, May
10-13, 2008
2Climate change and adaptation
- A large global community is working on climate
change issues - across sectors and disciplines
- Inventories of greenhouse gases (EPA, IPCC etc)
- Climate prediction and modelling
(universities/research centres) - Adaptation options (NGOs, IARCs, universities,
industry, private sector not everybody with a
pro-poor and vulnerability focus) - The CGIAR and ILRI in particular, need to focus
on few niche areas so - need for strategic partnerships with carefully
chosen collaborators - Focus is on agriculture, livestock, and food
systems to address threats - on food security, livelihoods, and the
environment
3On-going research on climate change and livestock
at ILRI
Vulnerability assessment for the Greater Horn of
Africa (IDRC CCAA) Anticipating, adapting to,
and coping with climate risks in Kenya (KACCAL)
Dynamic Interactions among People, Livestock, and
Savanna Ecosystems under Climate Change (NSF)
Targeting and priority setting of climate change
adaptation options (ASARECA) Adapting to
climate change and climate variability in
livestock systems in marginal, rapidly-changing
areas of East and southern Africa (BMZ) Climate
change, Agriculture and Food Security (CGIAR
Climate Change Challenge Programme)
4ILRIs work on climate change adaptation
- Framework for climate change adaptation work
- Analytical and diagnostic studies
- Identifying hotspots of climate change and
vulnerability - Vulnerability assessment to identify intervention
options - Climate change scenarios and assessing ex-ante
adaptive responses and impacts on livestock
communities and ecosystems - Test feasibility of promising adaptation options,
support design and formulation of adaptation
strategy - Assess feasibility of index based livestock
insurance (IBLI) for large populations facing
co-variate risks linked to climate change - Identify institutional arrangement to deliver
livestock insurance product to the poor,
particularly women - Build capacity of research and non-research actors
5ILRIs work on climate change adaptation
- Support implementation of adaptation projects
- Pilot testing of adaptation interventions eg.
IBLI - Results based monitoring and evaluation, focusing
on what works, what does not work, and why,
lessons learned and issues for scaling up
6CGIAR Challenge Program on Climate Change,
Agriculture and Food Security
- Brings together complementary strengths of
- The CGIAR Alliance
- The Earth System Science Partnership
- Their respective partners
-
7Objectives of CCCP
- To close critical gaps in knowledge of how to
enhance, and manage the trade-offs between food
security, livelihoods, and environmental goals in
the face of a changing climate - To develop and evaluate options for adapting to a
changing climate to inform agricultural
development, food security policy and donor
investment strategies - To assist farmers, policy makers, and donors to
continually monitor, assess, and adjust their
actions in response to a changing climate -
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9A data integration and modelling framework for
the CCCP
10Monitoring and evaluation framework for
adaptation
- Monitoring Evaluation
- Essential step towards greater effectiveness and
accountability - Needs to be linked to program likely to bring
about desired change (strategy or logic model) to
enhance learning - Two dimensions
- Outcome and impact dimension project and program
level - Process dimension overall performance or
achievements - What works, what does not work, and why
- How to improve strategy and sharpen operations to
maximize sustainable impact
11ME as a management tool for adaptation
- Needs clear goals, objectives, and measurable
outcomes - Provide information to make timely, evidence
- based, and cost effective decisions on
- progress towards achieving adaptation goals and
objectives - necessary adjustments to adaptation interventions
-
12ME framework for adaptation
- Planning adaptation interventions
- vulnerability assessments, baseline data, climate
change scenarios - establish socio-economic, climate baseline
conditions, policy and institutional environment
for adaptation e - establish adaptation targets or proxies
- Improve implementation of adaptation projects and
programs - Periodically monitor baselines, scenarios, and
changes in baseline conditions - Involve beneficiaries in reviewing indicators and
measurement systems - Engage beneficiaries to reflect critically on
project implementation to improve action - Use feedback to adjust strategy, activities, and
if necessary ME system
13ME framework for adaptation
- Track progress towards adaptation goals
- Gather longitudinal/panel data and analyze them
to assess trends in key outcomes - Involve project beneficiaries in assessing
performance - (participatory ME, FGD, etc)
- Provide feedback and help develop local
capacities for assessing performance - Communicate evaluation results in way that
command attention and - compel action
- Taken together, these three stages planning,
implementation, and - progress measurement amount to an integrated
cycle of continually - improving performance and increasing impact
- Experimental quasi-experimental design
- Counterfactual (with and without) to demonstrate
impact or ensure accountability but - Cost, timeliness limit usefulness for dynamic
decision- making -
14ME framework for adaptation
- Experimental quasi-experimental design
- Counterfactual (with and without) to demonstrate
impact or ensure accountability but - Cost, timeliness limit usefulness for dynamic
decision- making -
15Evaluation issues related to adaptation impacts
- Climate change is just one piece of the
development - puzzle how to separate out the climate piece?
- What is the nature of the climate piece? May
be - Short-term, related to climate variability
(difficulties of quantifying risk benefits) - Long-term, related to changing climate means
(difficulties of quantifying benefits over long
time periods) - Attribution who did what, and with what
effects? -
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