National Polarorbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System NPOESS Climate Impacts

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National Polar-orbiting OperationalEnvironmental
Satellite System (NPOESS)Climate Impacts
Possible Mitigations with a Certified NPOESS
Presented By Tom Karl1 NOAA/NASA Team D Cecil,
B. Cramer, T. Karl, J. Kaye, C. Koblinsky, J.
Privette other NASA/NOAA Scientists 1NOAAs
National Climatic Data Center Asheville, NC
28801
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• B.S. degree in Meteorology, 1973
• Masters Degree in Meteorology, 1974
• Awarded an honorary Doctorate of Humane
  Letters, 2002
• Director of NOAAs National Climatic Data
  Center, Asheville, North Carolina
• NOAAs Program Manager for Climate
  Observations and Analysis
• Co-chairs NOAAs Data Management Committee
• Fellow of the American Meteorological
  Society and the American Geophysical Union,
  and a National Associate of the National
  Research Council
• Lead Author and Coordinating Lead Author
  of several IPCC reports, Co-Chair of the U.S.
  National Assessment of Climate Change and
  Variability and recently completed the first
  Climate Change Science Program Synthesis and
  Assessment Report on Temperature Trends

Thomas R. Karl Director NOAAs National Climatic
Data Center United States Department of Commerce
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National Polar-orbiting OperationalEnvironmental
Satellite System (NPOESS)Climate Impacts
Possible Mitigations with a Certified NPOESS
Presented By Tom Karl1 NOAA/NASA Team D Cecil,
B. Cramer, T. Karl, J. Kaye, C. Koblinsky, J.
Privette other NASA/NOAA Scientists 1NOAAs
National Climatic Data Center Asheville, NC
28801
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Outline

• Background
• De-manifested Sensors
• Reduced Capability Sensors
• Reduced Coverage Sensors
• Preferred Approaches

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Overview of Nunn-McCurdy Certification Climate
Goal Impacts

• Nunn-McCurdy certified NPOESS
• Priority placed on continuity of operational
  weather measurements
• Pre Nunn-McCurdy 3 orbits and 6 spacecraft
• Post Nunn-McCurdy 2 orbits and 4 spacecraft
• Impacts to Climate Sensors
• Five climate oriented sensors de-manifested
• APS, TSIS, OMPS-Limb, ERBS, ALT
• Instruments flown only if developed outside of
  NPOESS program
• Three climate oriented sensors have reduced
  coverage
• VIIRS, CrIS One less flight per day
• One climate oriented sensor will have reduced
  capability
• CMIS Build a less expensive, less capable
  instrument of the same type
• NPOESS program will plan and fund for the
  integration of demanifested sensors onto the
  satellite buses if provided from outside NPOESS

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Climate Goals NPOESS
Background on the climate impacts with a
certified NPOESS

• Phase 1 Climate priorities only
• the wider mandates beyond climate not considered
• Cost estimates not addressed
• Phase 2 Strategy must be integrated into a
  Mission Roadmap responsive to Decadal
  Survey (NRC) and potential international
  partners
• Phase 3 Cost estimates

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NPOESS Nunn-McCurdy Certification
Reductions of Climate-Relevant Sensors
Remains Intact No Change/Not Relevant Reduced
Capability Related Missions Deleted Implies
Sensor Present
CMIS to be redefined as a less capable, less
expensive sensor OMPS Limb Subsystem is
cancelled and only the Nadir capability is
maintained
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NPOESS Climate Certified Nunn-McCurdy
Baseline Strategy
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National and International Climate Priorities
Impacted by Nunn-McCurdy Certification of NPOESS

• Will the loss of climate-science sensors have a
  significant impact on the goals of the U.S.
  Climate Change Science Program?
• First order, yes --- Essential Climate Variables
• Will the loss of climate-science sensors have a
  significant impact on the goals of the
  International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)?
• First order, yes

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Global Essential Climate Variables (ECVS) with
Heritage Records (Certified Nunn-McClurdy-Current
Baseline)
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Framework for AssessingImpacts on Climate Goals

• Science
• Critical work on climate change detection,
  understanding, prediction, and attribution will
  be curtailed or not possible (e.g., ALT is needed
  to monitor global sea level rise)
• Data Continuity
• Critical Climate Data Records will cease (e.g.,
  solar irradiance monitoring started in 1979 now
  slated to end in 2013)
• Climate Data Records
• Increased costs and more uncertain to develop
• Measurement Overlap
• Multiple sensors will not be able to achieve the
  required accuracy since they require on-orbit
  co-calibration with predecessor (e.g.,
  CERES-to-ERBS-like-sensor transition)

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Framework for AssessingImpacts on Climate Goals
(continued)
Consideration Given to the Following

• Importance of the Essential Climate Variable
  (ECV) as defined by the Global Climate Observing
  System to understanding causes of climate change
  or the sensitivity of the climate system to
  various forcings
• Importance of sensor to measuring an ECV (not
  adequately measured by other systems)
• Heritage of the sensors and derived Climate Data
  Records
• Likelihood and impact of a gap in measurement
• Maturity of the science and technology of the
  measurement
• Societal relevance and operational impact of the
  sensor loss or degradation
• International collaborations and other sources of
  climate data

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Impacts of Nunn-McCurdy By SensorDemanifested
Sensors in Priority

• 1. Total Solar Irradiance Sensor (TSIS)
• TSIS measures solar energy incident on Earth
• Without TSIS, discrimination and quantification
  of natural vs. anthropogenic forcings uncertain
  solar spectral variability affects Earth system
  uncertain
• Earth Radiation Budget Sensor (ERBS)
• ERBS measures net shortwave and longwave
  radiation
• Without ERBS, causes of climate change and
  internal feedbacks uncertain (e.g., role of
  clouds)
• RADAR Altimeter (ALT)
• ALT monitors changes in sea level and regional
  circulations
• Without ALT, assessment and prediction of ocean
  expansion and coastal inundation at risk ocean
  storm intensification uncertain
• Ozone Mapping Profiler Suite (OMPS) Limb
  Subsystem
• OMPS-Limb measures Global ozone at high vertical
  resolution
• Without OMPS-Limb, tracking global ozone recovery
  and atmospheric structure at risk
• 6. Aerosol Polarimeter Sensor (APS)
• APS measures global aerosol types and
  characteristics

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TSIS Background

• TSI has been measured continuously for the last
  28 years
• TSI varies about 0.1 over the 11-year solar
  cycle
• Short-term variability is typically 0.2

(0.1)
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TSIS NPOESS Mitigation

• TSI is presently provided by the NASA SORCE
  Mission that should last through 2009
• The NASA Glory Mission will be launched at the
  end of 2008 and continue the TSI measurement
  through 2013
• TSIS was planned to fly on the original NPOESS
  early AM Missions C2 (2011) and C4 (2014)
• If developed outside of NPOESS, TSIS could fly on
  the new C2 (2016) and C4 (2020)
• A third TSIS is necessary to bridge the gap
  between the end of Glory and the launch of C2
• Launch Readiness Date

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ERBS Background

• ERBS continuously monitors the radiation budget
  to identify subtle long-term shifts related to
  climate change
• Persistent small climate changes are difficult to
  detect within the diurnal, regional, and seasonal
  variance of the Earths reflected (shortwave) and
  emitted (long wave) energy hence a long-term
  record is required (decades)
• Radiation budget measurements date back to 1984
  and are currently provided by the CERES
  instruments on the TRMM (1997), Terra (1999), and
  Aqua (2002) Missions
• ERBS lacks the necessary absolute accuracy to
  tolerate data gaps
• A six-month overlap between instruments is
  required and a twelve-month overlap is preferred

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ERBS NPOESS Mitigation

• NASA volunteered a CERES flight spare for the
  original C1 Mission
• Presently, ERBS has been de-manifested but the
  CERES flight spare is still available
• To achieve the critical 6-12 months of overlap,
  the CERES flight spare should fly on NPP (2010)
  rather than the new C1 (2013)
• If developed outside of NPOESS, ERBS could fly on
  the new C1 (2013) and C3 (2018) Missions

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3. Ocean Altimeter (ALT)
Background

• The Ocean Surface Topography Mission (OSTM) or
  Jason 2 will launch in 2008 and provide
  altimetric data through 2011 and possibly through
  2013
• No planned precision altimetric data after OSTM
• The ALT instrument was to fly on the original
  NPOESS C2 (2011) and C5 (2015) Missions
• NPOESS sun-synchronous orbits are not ideal for
  precision altimetry since they are confounded by
  tidal activity

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ALT NPOESS Mitigation

• In the longer-term, continuity in measurements
  throughout the NPOESS era will require successive
  flights of missions of comparable characteristics
  at an interval to provide the required overlap
• Two alternatives have been considered outside of
  NPOESS
• NOAA/EUMETSAT follow-on OSTM with the same
  capability as Jason-3
• NASA/Navy Advanced Altimetry Mission that
  provides a wide swath capability with greater
  spatial resolution to explore the energy flux
  through mesoscale eddies and in costal processes

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OMPS-Limb Background

• To track the ozone structure of this region
  requires a vertical resolution of lt 3 km
• The OMPS-Limb subsystem complements the
  OMPS-Nadir that measures the total column ozone
  beneath the instrument
• Ozone data are presently provided by the
  following
• MLS and HIRDLS on Aura
• OSIRIS on ODIN (Sweden)
• SCIAMACHY on ENVISAT-1 (ESA)

(Inadequate resolution)

• No ozone profile instrument with adequate
  vertical resolution will be available after
  2010
• Global high resolution OMPS-Limb measurements are
  essential for monitoring and understanding the
  stratospheric ozone recovery process

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OMPS-Limb NPOESS Mitigation

• OMPS-Limb instrument was to be combined with the
  OMPS-Nadir instrument and fly on the NPP mission
  as well as on the original NPOESS C2 (2016) and
  C4 (2020) Missions
• Presently the OMPS-Limb is de-manifested and the
  OMPS-Nadir instrument will fly on the NPP Mission
  (2010) and the new PM Missions, C1 (2013) and C3
  (2018)
• Restore the OMPS-Limb subsystem within the
  OMPS-Nadir sensor as originally planned

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APS Background

• APS instrument addresses three objectives
• Characterize the global distribution of aerosol
  properties
• Determine the effects of aerosols on the
  radiation budget
• Determine the effects of aerosols on clouds and
  precipitation
• APS is based on an earlier aircraft instrument,
  the Research Scanning Polarimeter (RSP)
• Flying APS on the Glory Mission was intended to
  be risk reduction for subsequent NPOESS Missions

APS is the first aerosol instrument with
sufficient accuracy to resolve the small changes
representative of persistent climate change
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APS NPOESS Mitigation

• Intended for the original NPOESS C1 (2009) and C4
  (2014) flights
• Glory Mission will launch late in 2008 with a
  three-year life and a five-year goal
• Provides APS measurements through 2013
• Two additional APS Sensors developed outside of
  the NPOESS Program could fly on the new C1 (2013)
  and C3 (2018) NPOESS Missions

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Impacts of Nunn-McCurdy By SensorCapability and
Coverage Reductions in Priority

• 5. Conical Scanning Microwave Imager (CMIS)
  Reduced Scope
• CMIS measures integrated atmospheric properties,
  surfaces under clouds, ocean surface winds
• Pending new sensor design, adequate sea surface
  temperature, polar ice melting, soil moisture and
  ocean wind records at risk
• 7. Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite
  (VIIRS) Reduced Coverage
• VIIRS maps small features (lt1 km) on land, ocean,
  atmosphere
• Without VIIRS in the mid-morning orbit, adequate
  global imagery of critical variables for some
  climate applications at risk
• 8. Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) /
  Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS)
  Reduced Coverage
• CrIS/ATMS measures atmospheric property profiles,
  greenhouse gases, clouds and precipitation
• Without CrIS/ATMS in the early-morning orbit,
  diurnal atmospheric temperature and hydrological
  cycles uncertain some climate change hypotheses
  not validated
• Advanced Data Collection System (ADCS) No
  Impacts
• ADCS re-transmits in-situ observations from
  remote areas
• No changes

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CMIS Background

• CMIS-like data are currently provided by the Aqua
  AMSR-E instrument, the SeaWinds scatterometer on
  the QuikSCAT Mission, and the experimental
  surface vector wind sensor from the Navys
  Windsat/Coriolis Mission
• Some of these data are also provided by the SSMIS
  on the DMSP Missions
• Continuous records date back to 1987
• CMIS was originally a six-band system with
  vertical and horizontal polarization in each band
• The NPOESS intention is to build a less
  expensive, less capable system known as the
  Microwave Imager/Sounder (MIS)

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CMIS NPOESS Mitigation

• CMIS was planned to fly on all of the original
  six NPOESS Missions
• Due to the cancellation of CMIS the new MIS will
  not be available for the C1 (2013) Mission
• NPOESS plans that C2 (2016), C3 (2018) and C4
  (2020) will include the new MIS sensor
• The absence of a microwave radiometer/imager on
  C1 represents a loss of continuity of data
  products from AMSR-E (e.g., SSTs will be degraded
  2010 2016)

Recommendation
Carefully monitor the development of MIS
requirements and if soil moisture, precipitation,
and sea surface temperature are not supported,
an alternative must be identified.
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VIIRS Background Mitigation

• VIIRS is intended to succeed the MODIS
  instruments on Aqua and Terra
• VIIRS was planned to fly on all six of the
  original NPOESS missions
• The Certified NPOESS uses an AVHRR on the
  European MetOp Mission in the mid-AM orbit.
• The AVHRR instrument is far less capable than
  MODIS or VIIRS
• Ocean color cannot be adequately determined with
  AVHRR
• Comparisons of Terra and Aqua data indicate that
  diurnal variation of clouds require multiple
  equatorial crossing to mitigate cloud clutter
• A VIIRS in the mid-AM orbit would continue the
  climate data products presently produced by
  MODIS on Terra

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Summary of RecommendationsPriority Order Ranking

• Total Solar Irradiance Sensor (TSIS)
  De-manifested Sensor
• Mitigation Build three additional TSIS sensors,
  flying first on a platform of opportunity to
  overlap with Glory. Subsequent sensors fly on
  platforms of opportunity at times intended to
  provide continuity in the measurements.
• Earth Radiation Budget Sensor (ERBS)
  De-manifested Sensor
• Mitigation Consider flying final CERES
  instrument on NPP instead of C1 to ensure
  continuity of AQUA CERES. Develop ERBS for C1
  C3 flights NPOESS to support integration of ERBS
  onto C1 C3.
• RADAR Altimeter (ALT) De-manifested Sensor
• Near-term Mitigation OSTM JASON-2 to fly
  2008-11 Support planning of either an
  operational OSTM follow-on mission (i.e.,
  JASON-3) as a NOAA-Eumetsat effort, or the
  development of a next generation altimeter (i.e.,
  wide swath, higher resolution) as a research and
  development mission between NASA and the Navy.
• Longer-term Mitigation After the planning
  period, select the best option in a time frame
  that allows the required overlap with OSTM.
  Implement successive flights of missions of
  comparable characteristics at an interval to
  provide the required overlap.

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Summary of RecommendationsPriority Order Ranking
(continued)

• Ozone Mapping Profiler Suite (OMPS) Limb
  Subsystem De-manifested Sensor
• Mitigation OMPS Limb for NPP is already built
  Fund calibration, testing, integration of OMPS
  Limb on NPP Build and fly additional OMPS Limb
  for all NPOESS flying OMPS nadir
• Conical Scanning Microwave Imager (CMIS)
  Reduced Sensor Capability
• Mitigation Monitor rescoped CMIS (MIS)
  requirements development. If MIS is not adequate
  for climate-quality precipitation, soil moisture,
  and sea surface temperature, identify and fund
  alternative instruments. Ensure imager/sounder
  stays on C2 as planned. Provide capability to
  continue 8-year Quickscat ocean vector wind
  measurements as soon as possible.
• Aerosol Polarimeter Sensor (APS) De-manifested
  Sensor
• Mitigation Fly APS instrument on the NASA
  Glory Mission. Support future aerosol research as
  dictated by the Glory results. Provide an
  additional APS on a future research mission prior
  to the NPOESS C3 Mission

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Summary of Recommendations Priority Order
Ranking (continued)

• Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite
  (VIIRS) Reduced Coverage Sensor
• Mitigation Throughout the initial METOP (A, B,
  C) era, fly a VIIRS-like instrument on one or
  more platforms in the mid-AM orbit to provide a
  continuous data record. For continuity beyond
  METOP-C, work with Eumetsat to define
  requirements for a VIIRS-like imager to fly on
  the METOP follow-on series.
• Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) (Reduced
  Coverage Sensor)
• No additional mitigation proposed.
• Advanced Data Collection System (ADCS) (No
  Change)
• No action proposed.

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NPOESS Climate Certified Nunn-McCurdy
Baseline Strategy
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NPOESS Climate Mitigated Nunn-McCurdy
Mitigation Strategy
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Questions