World Grain Production

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2009 Wheat Outlook
Dan Manternach Doane Advisory Services February,
2009
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World Wheat Production Use
Million Tonnes
Use
Production
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U.S. Wheat Acreage
Million acres
Doane projection
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Chicago Wheat New Long-term Price Range
New top third
New middle third
New bottom third
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Wheat Situation Outlook for 2009/10
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2009/10 Historical projection of highs and lows
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Three most under-utilized marketing tactics
using options in futures markets

• Buying courage calls to give you the courage to
  sell into a rising market.
• Selling covered calls as price enhancement or a
  potential hedge.
• Selling covered puts as price enhancement after
  youve made cash sales.

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Three most underutilized marketing tactics using
options in futures markets

• Buying courage calls to give you the courage to
  sell into a rising market.
• Selling covered calls as price enhancement or a
  potential hedge.
• Selling covered puts as price enhancement after
  youve made cash sales.

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Beware another common mistake

• Selling on a scale down basis in a RISING
  market
• Selling on a scale up basis in a FALLING market
• You need to reverse this common mistake by doing
  just the opposite
• Sell larger and larger quantities in a rising
  market.
• Sell smaller and smaller quantities in a falling
  market.

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Questions??