Growth Analysis by Jurisdiction 4202006

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Growth Analysisby Jurisdiction4/20/2006
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SDO Projectionsfor the Seven County Area
Source State Demographers Office 2002
projections
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Basis for Higher Olmsted Forecast

• The State Demographers Office (SDO) projections
  assign a declining share of regional growth to
  Olmsted County in comparison with the 1990s.
• Manufacturing employment, proportionally higher
  in other counties, is projected to grow slowly.
  Services employment, quite strong in Olmsted
  County, is projected to continue to grow rapidly.
  
• Olmsted Countys share of District 6 has
  increased from 45 in the 90s to 52 since 2000.
• If Olmsted County maintains only the same share
  of regional growth as it experienced in the
  1990s, it will grow to 182,500 by 2030, 12,000
  more than the SDO projections.

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Population by County D6
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Employment Growth

• From 1990 through 2004, Olmsted County
• grew from 65,700 to 90,175 non-farm wage salary
  jobs,
• an increase of 24,475 jobs,
• an increase of 37 overall,
• at a rate averaging over 2.1 per year.

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1990-2006 Non-farm Wage Salary Employment
Growth Rochester MSA
Source ROPD from Minnesota Department of
Economic Security
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Olmsted 1990, 2000, Projected Employment
Source ROPD
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Why it will be harder to continue this type of
growth

• Aging baby boom has reduced the rate of
  home-grown labor force growth
• Aging baby boom puts most growth in age groups
  resistant to migration.
• Recent sources of labor force growth have been
  exhausted (increased female labor force
  participation, workers leaving the farm,
  increased commuting, etc.)

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1990 Population by Age and Sex
Aging baby boom
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2000 Population by Age and Sex
Aging baby boom
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Distribution of Population Change by AgeOlmsted
County 1990-2000
Aging baby boom
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Population Change by Age Source1990 - 2000
Positive net migration helped to offset losses in
early labor force population.
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2030 Population by Age and Sex
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Distribution of Population Change by AgeOlmsted
County 2000-2030 SDO Forecasts
Aging baby boom
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Change in Population by Age Groups Olmsted
County 2000-2020 SDO Forecasts
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Changes in Household Type
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Why it will be harder to continue rapid
employment growth

• Olmsted County will experience a 23 growth in
  its prime labor force age groups (according to
  State Demographer forecasts based on historic
  share of statewide net migration)
• versus a 41 growth in employment (based on
  growth not constrained by labor force
  availability).

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Olmsted County Projected Population Change by Age
2000-2030
Net gain of 18,200 20-64 year olds 15,000 workers
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Four Possibilities

• Significantly slower employment growth in Olmsted
  County
• Decline of regional manufacturing, with transfer
  to service sectors (as with farming historically)
• Significant changes in retirement
  age/expectations
• Higher than projected rates of in-migration and
  population growth

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Sources of Population ChangeOlmsted County
1990-2000
Calculated based on Census and Minnesota State
Health records. Other excludes Hispanic Whites,
who are included as White.
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Olmsted County Population Change by Race 1990
to 2000
1990 numbers adjusted to control total of 106,470.
Source ROPD from 2000 Census
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Estimated Population by Race 2000-2005
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Sources of Population Change 2000 - 2005
Source US Census Bureau Table 4 Cumulative
Estimates of the Components of Population Change
for Counties of Minnesota April 1, 2000 to July
1, 2005 (CO-EST2005-04-27) C\pw\rawdata\populati
on households\Census Estimates
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Conclusions on Regional Growth

• Most growth will be concentrated in older age
  groups
• Net migration will attract immigrants and other
  minority groups, increasing diversity in the
  region
• Most growth will be in smaller households 3
  will be in married couples with children
• Labor force shortages may result in reduced
  employment growth

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Implications for the Distribution of Growth

• Focused on Rochester and related commuter
  communities
• Smaller households may mean smaller lots and
  higher density (cities vs townships)
• Elders have been concentrated in cities also
• Foreign immigration has been mainly concentrated
  in Rochester

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District 6 Commuter Exchanges With Olmsted County
To Olmsted
From Olmsted
105
2,179
41
3,141
498
232
3,817
256
347
1,907
554
104
439
2,621
1,993
90
251
147
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Regional Distribution of Growth in the 1990s

• Cities within 25 miles of Rochester accounted for
  40 of the 1990 population of Dodge, Fillmore,
  Goodhue, Mower, Olmsted, Wabasha, and Winona
  Counties
• 60 of the 1990-2000 growth of the 7-county area
  around Rochester occurred within those cities.
• Growth beyond proportional share extended to
  cities within 13 miles of Rochester

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Ring City Growth 1990-2000
7 County total does not include border cities
(La Crescent, Dennison, and Blooming Prairie).
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Regional Distribution of Growth

• Cities within 25 miles of Rochester accounted for
  42 of Census 2000 population of Dodge, Fillmore,
  Goodhue, Mower, Olmsted, Wabasha, and Winona
  Counties
• 94 of the 2000-2004 growth of the 7-county area
  around Rochester occurred within those cities.
  80 occurred in Rochester, Byron, Kasson, and
  Pine Island.
• Growth beyond proportional share extends to
  cities within 16 miles of Rochester

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Regional Distribution of Growth

• Excluding Rochester, cities within 25 miles of
  Rochester accounted for 15 of Census 2000
  population and 32 of the 2000-2004 growth of the
  7-county area, over twice their share of
  population.
• Cities within 16 miles accounted for 11 of the
  population and 30 of the growth of the 7-county
  area, almost 3 times their share of population.

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Ring City Growth, 2000-2004

• Impact distance is increasing
• Size of ratio is increasing for close-in cities
• 9-mile cities are still the biggest proportional
  gainers (growth at 3.8 times their proportion of
  population vs. 1.8 times in the 90s)
• 7 County total includes border cities (La
  Crescent, Dennison, and Blooming Prairie)

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Ring Cities

• 7 County total includes border cities (La
  Crescent, Dennison, and Blooming Prairie)

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16-Mile Ring Cities
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City Population Change
We used two alternatives to project
jurisdictional population growth. The first looks
at the share each ring of cities is expected to
receive and the share each city in that ring will
get.
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Jurisdiction Projection Basis
7 County total includes border cities (La
Crescent, Dennison, and Blooming Prairie)
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Jurisdiction Projections
Assumes constant share of growth per ring and
constant city share within rings.
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Jurisdiction Groups Based on Size Growth Rates

• Rochester
• Small Cities
• Suburban Townships Cascade, Haverhill, Marion,
  Oronoco, Rochester
• Exurban Townships High Forest, Kalmar, New
  Haven, Salem
• Rural Townships Dover, Elmira, Eyota,
  Farmington, Orion, Pleasant Grove, Quincy, Rock
  Dell, Viola

The second projection alternative looks at the
share of projected County growth that will occur
in each type of jurisdiction, and the share each
jurisdiction will get of its type. All of these
assume Olmsted County 2030 population will reach
182,500.
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1990-2004 Population Growth by Jurisdiction
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2030 Small City Populations Assuming Current
Conditions
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2030 Small City Populations Assuming Improved
Infrastructure in Oronoco
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Residential Capacity
Total Population in Urban Areas by 2035
180,000 Total Land Area Capacity in USAs
360,200 Rochester 2035 Space to Population
Ratio 1.34 Small Cities Aggregate Ratio
7.5 - 8.2
In aggregate, the residential land area of the
small cities urban service areas is several
times as large as is needed to house population
growth.
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Non-Residential Land Employees per Acre - 2005
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Employment Capacity
Current Olmsted Urban Employment
97,900 Projected Olmsted Urban Employment by
2035 152,100 Total Land Area Capacity by 2035
242,000
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Byron Land Use PlanVacant Land Area
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Chatfield Land Use Plan Vacant Land Area
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Dover Land Use Plan
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Dover Land Use PlanVacant Land Area
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Eyota Land Use PlanVacant Land Area
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Oronoco Land Use PlanVacant Land Area
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Pine Island Land Use Plan
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Pine Island Land Use PlanVacant Land Area
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Stewartville Land Use PlanVacant Land Area