Modeling in Baltimore Harbor

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Modeling in Baltimore Harbor

• Technical Outreach
• Prepared by
• MDE/TARSA
• Prepared for theBaltimore Harbor Stakeholder
  Advisory Group
• September 10, 2002

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Harbor Toxics Modeling Program

• Estimate Nonpoint Source Loads -
• Model the watershed - estimate loads from the
  land to the water
• Provide inputs to the Harbor Models
• Uses a Storm Water Management Model (SWMM)
• Simulate Fate of Toxics in Baltimore Harbor
  Harbor Models
• Management/Screen (Box Model) - UMCES
• Hydrodynamics (water transport) and Sediment
  Transport
• Toxic (Dissolved/Particulate)
• Food Web
• Detailed Assessment (Upper Bay Model) - VIMS
• Models entire Upper Bay to include exchange
  between the Harbor and the Bay
• Hydrodynamics (water transport) and Sediment
  Transport
• Toxic (Dissolved/Particulate)

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Harbor Toxics Modeling Framework
Watershed Model
Point Source and other Loads
Box Model
Appropriate Scenarios
Upper Bay Model
Toxic Water Quality Prediction
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Toxics Watershed Model

• Storm Water Management Model (SWMM)
• Completed Chromium, Lead, Zinc
• Internal/External Review Completed
• UNDER DEVELOPMENT PCB

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UMCES Toxic Box Model

• Model Status
• Hydrodynamic/Sediment Transport
• Linking Nonpoint Source and Point Source Loads
  Completed
• Mass Balance Check - Completed
• Transfer Coefficients
• Sediment Transport Calibration
• Toxic Box/Foodweb
• Linking Nonpoint Source and Point Source Loads
  Completed
• Sensitivity Test
• Linking Hydrodynamic/Sediment Transport Model

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UMCES Hydrodynamic/Sediment

• Data Time varying sea level at the Harbor mouth
  and time-varying winds to predict the temporal
  evolution of currents, sea-surface elevation, and
  water properties within the Harbor for 4 observed
  months.
• May 1995
• October/November 1999 CHARM 1
• March/April 2000 CHARM 2
• July/August 2000 CHARM 3
• Grid size
• Horizontal 360m 360m
• Vertical 6 layers (Sigma Coordinate)

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UMCES Hydrodynamic/Sediment Mass Balance
Checkup

• October/November 1999 CHARM 1

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Harbor Toxic Modeling FrameworkVIMS Upper Bay
Model

• Model Status
• Hydrodynamic/Sediment Transport - Final Stage
• Incorporating Nonpoint and Point Sources
• ToxiWasp (simulating fate of toxic) In Progress
• Incorporate the numerical Quickest Scheme into
  the toxic model Completed
• Implementation of Toxic Model cell mapping
  structure - Completed
• Code testing for sediment toxicant transport -
  Completed
• Conduct the simulation for lead - Completed
• Incorporating Nonpoint and Point Sources

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Harbor Toxic Modeling FrameworkVIMS Upper Bay
Model
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Harbor Toxic Modeling FrameworkVIMS
Hydrodynamic/Sediment Model Calibration stations
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Toxic Point Source Loading to VIMS Model
A
-
W
B
C
S
X
M
I
-
H
P
P
N
Note Point Source loadings from each outfall of
the listed industries. They are distributed to
the closest model cells.
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Toxic Nonpoint Source Loading to VIMS Model
J
o
n
e
s

F
a
l
l
8
1
0
7
9
0
G
w
y
n
n
s

F
a
l
l
8
2
0
8
0
0
7
8
0
7
7
0
8
3
0
9
1
0
9
2
0
P
a
t
a
p
s
c
o

R
i
v
e
r
8
6
0
8
4
0
8
5
0
8
9
0
9
0
0
8
8
0
8
7
0
N
Note Non-point source loadings from the
watershed segments. They are evenly distributed
to their adjacent model cells.
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Progress/Future Actions

• August 2002
• Complete CHARM point source sampling finalize
  data report
• Finalize watershed model report
• Continue working on calibrating hydrodynamic and
  toxic components
• Work with Stakeholders
• December 2002
• Finalize hydrodynamic calibration
• Preliminary Toxic Model calibration
• Sensitivity test of Nonpoint Source/Point Source
  load reduction using UMCES Box Model.
• Work with Stakeholders

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Harbor Eutrophication Modeling Program

• Estimate Nonpoint Source Loads - Watershed
  Modeling
• Hydrologic Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) -
  Completed
• Simulate Water Quality in Baltimore Harbor
  Harbor Modeling Final Stage
• A 3-D Hydrodynamic Model - Curvilinear
  Hydrodynamic 3-Dimension (CH3D)
• A 3-D Comprehensive Water Quality Model -
  CE-QUAL-ICM
• A Sediment Diagenesis Model  

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Harbor Eutrophication Modeling Framework
Watershed Model HSPF Hydrology (flow, TSS)
Hydrodynamic Model CH3D Velocity, Diffusion,
Surface Elevation, Salinity, Temperature
Water Quality Model CE-QUAL-ICM Temperature,
Salinity, Total Suspended Solid,
Cyanobacteria/Diatoms/Algae, Carbon, Nitrogen,
Phosphorus, COD, DO, Silica
Watershed Model HSPF nutrients, sediments
Sediment Diagenesis Model Sediment initial
condition, Sediment settling rate
Point Source and other loads
Water Quality Prediction
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Current Eutrophication Model Status

• Watershed (HSPF) Completed (Internal/External
  Review Completed)
• Hydrodynamic Model Completed
• Water Quality Model Final Stage
• (Internal Review Completed)

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Progress/Future Actions

• August 2002
• Watershed Model Completed
• Finalize Hydrodynamic and Water Quality Model
  Calibration
• Work with Stakeholders
• December 2002
• External Technical Review Meeting
• Sensitivity Test of Nonpoint Source/Point Source
  Load Reduction
• Preliminary Scenario Strategies
• Work with Stakeholders

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Scenario Runs (Decision Criteria and Procedure)
Draft For Discussion Purposes
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Scenario Runs (Decision Criteria and Procedure)
Calibrated Model
No impairment
Current Progress case Do hydrology/flow analysis
to choose a representative year and use that
year hydrology with current loading data to run
the model
Delisting/ Monitoring
Impairment
Identify critical condition Dry, wet and average
year, worse water quality, etc.
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Scenario Runs (Decision Criteria and Procedure)
Identify critical condition Dry, wet and average
year, worse water quality, etc.
External vs. Internal Source Remove and/or double
both point and non-point source to see if
internal source (sediment) is significant
Internal important
Natural Recovery Time line Use model to test the
natural recovery time
Internal External equally important
External important
Point vs. Nonpoint source in Harbor Remove or
double ps to see if nps is significant Remove or
double nps to see if ps is significant
External vs. Hydrodynamic in the Harbor Remove or
double individual subwatershed point and
non-point sources to see if the hydrodynamic
transport from other region is significant
External important
Hydrodynamic important
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Scenario Runs (Decision Criteria and Procedure)
Point vs. Nonpoint source in Harbor Remove or
double ps to see if nps is significant Remove or
double nps to see if ps is significant
External vs. Hydrodynamic in the Harbor Remove or
double individual subwatershed point and
non-point sources to see if the hydrodynamic
transport from other region is significant
External important
Point vs. Non-point source in subwatershed Remove
or double ps to see if nps is significant Remove
or double nps to see if ps is significant
Hydrodynamic important
Do entire harbor reduction scenarios
Do subwatershed reduction scenarios