State Level Analysis of Industrial Energy Use

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State Level Analysis of Industrial Energy Use
Presented to the NREL Analysis Brown Bag October
10, 2002 R. Neal Elliott Program Director,
Industry Program The American Council for an
Energy-Efficient Economy Phone(202)
429-8873 rnelliott_at_aceee.org
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The American Council for an Energy Efficient
Economy (ACEEE)

• Non-profit (501c (3)) dedicated to advancing
  energy efficiency through research and
  dissemination.
• 25 staffers in Washington DC, Delaware, Michigan
  and Wisconsin
• Industry, Buildings, Utilities, Transportation,
  and National Policy
• Conferences and Publications
• Funding
• Foundation and Federal grants (50)
• Specific Contract work (20)
• Conferences and Publications (25)

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Why this analysis?

• Renewed interest energy at the state regional
  level
• New energy efficiency programs emerging
• State-level mix different from national
• Need to understand in-region industry mix
• opportunities in high-grow sectors
• These analyses commissioned by regional programs
  - focus on electricity
• States analyzedAZ, CO, NM, NY, NV, OR, UT, WY

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National Electricity Use

• Available data limited
• Industrial Electricity use grows over the next
  decade
• Energy intensive industries dominate
• Intra-sectorial shifts appear modest
• Growth sectors Ag, food, electronics, specialty
  chemicals
• Declining primary metals and paper,
  transportation equipment

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U.S. Industrial Electricity Use by Subsector 1997
and 2020
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State Level Energy Use

• Very limited data available
• Industry mix different from national level
• Energy intensive industries concentrated in a few
  states
• Clear intra-sectorial shifts occurring
• Opportunities in growing sectors - limited
  efficiency opportunities in declining sectors

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Percent GDP Growth by Subsector 1997-2030
Source Economy.com
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Industrial Electricity Use by Subsector 1997
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Predicted Industrial Electricity Use by Subsector
2010
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Arizona Predicted Electricity Use 2000-2030
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Oregon Predicted Electricity Use 1997-2030
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Analysis Approach

• Disaggregated state energy data not available
• Must use proxy of economic activity
• Need to be consistent in data sources
• Utility data problematic - inconsistent
  definitions
• Electricity easier than fuel - fuel switching
  complicates

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Methodology

• Determine state disaggregated value of shipments
  (1997)
• Grow economic activity for analysis period
• Apply energy intensity and autonomous trends
• Calibrate to state totals for know years

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Methodology

• Determine state disaggregated value of shipments
  (1997)
• Grow economic activity for analysis period
• Apply energy intensity and autonomous trends
• Calibrate to state totals for know years

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Available Data Sources

• Census Economic Census (mining, construction and
  manufacturing) - value of shipments and state
  electricity
• USDA Agricultural Census - value of shipments
  and state electricity
• EIA MECS, SEPER, SEDR - energy intensity, price
  and energy mix by industry
• Economy.com - economic growth

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Conclusions

• Assuming the national level distribution of
  energy use at the state level is not an accurate
  portrayal of electricity use in the states.
• careful analysis of the states economic and
  energy use patterns must be completed to better
  predict state usage patterns in the future.