State Key Project during 9th 5yr plan

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State Key Project during 9th 5-yr
plan (96-908) Research on Short-term Climate
Prediction System in China
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Background
Along with rapid development of our countrys
economy, not only need more accurate mid-short
term climate prediction, but also cry for
longer-term climate prediction.
Short-term climate prediction is a preceding
problem in international atmospheric science and
geoscience domains, which also being a most
difficult span-subject problem.
Because of its important social economy
significance and scientific difficult, the
project had been ranked as one of 16 state key
projects during 9th 5-yr plan.
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Short-term climate prediction cant follow old
theories and methods used in mid-short term
weather forecast, must develop new theories and
methods.
Climate prediction is in the face of whole
complicated climate system and its' changes,
which relate to the changes of atmosphere,
geosphere, biosphere, cryosphere and hydrosphere
and their interaction, so it is limited and
restricted by other correlated subjects
development and being a international science
difficult problem .
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climate system
Space
sun (short wave) radiation
land (long wave) radiation
glacier and snow
Atmosphere
absorption reflection emission
cloud
volcanic eruption gas and volcanic particulate
wind
atmosphere-water interaction
ocean-atmosphere interaction
run off
human activity
Ocean
sea ice
ocean current
lake and river
ice-ocean interaction
land surface process
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Scientific difficult of short-term climate
prediction in China

• Because of the together influences of
  Tibetan, Asian monsoon and Pacific, climate cause
  is very complex and special.
• The common climatology theories and methods
  cant resolve the climate prediction problem in
  China. It is essential to investigate theories
  and methods suitable to realistic conditions in
  China according to Chinese climate
  characteristics by our scientists.

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Major factors affecting climate of China
Snow cover
Blocking high
Land surface process
Tibet plateau
Sub-tropical high pressure
Monsoon
Typhoon
Indian Ocean
El Nino
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Projection introduction
Organizing departments are China meteorological
administration, China academy of science,
ministry of education, ministry of agriculture,
ministry of water resources, with CMA the first
presiding department. There are 731 researchers
participate in the project from 31 units in 5
departments.
Intermediate technical post 137 18.7
731?
Elementary technical post 92 12.6
High technical post 443 60.6
Master 21 2.9
PH.D 38 5.2
Members in the special project and technical post
proportion
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Through 731 scientists ( including 5
academicians and near 80 professors and
researchers) 5yrs(1996-2000) research, we has
achieved whole target to tackle the key problem,
established the first short-term operation system
over state and regions which has being run
successfully for 3 years and provided more than
14 kinds climate products for national and
foreign users.
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Main technical innovations and level
(?)Establish a new prediction model with physical
conception based on opening out climate signals.
Put forward the strongest climate signals which
influence climate abnormity of China are El Nino
events, Tibetan snow cover and monsoon.
Hereby excogitate new physical concept model, and
provide new thought and practical methods with
basis of firm physics for climate prediction in
our country.
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World impact of El Nino
Winter
Summer
(from Climate Prediction Center, USA, 2001)
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Impact of El Nino on summer precipitation in
China for following year
Strong signal of El nino
El nino events has remarkable effect on summer
rainfall in China for following year Wet over
North China and Yangtze basins and dry over
Huanghe and Huaihe valleys.
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Tibetan snow cover increase but Eurasian snow
cover decrease
Snow depth over Tibetan
Eurasian snow cover
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Positive correlation between winter show cover
over the Tibetan plateau And subsequent summer
precipitation in China
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Intensity of the South China Sea summer monsoon
has a negative correlation with summer
precipitation in China
Timing of onset of the South China Sea summer
monsoon has a negative correlation with summer
precipitation in China
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• (?) Develop and establish a complex global and
  regional dynamical climate prediction model
  system.
• The model system including 5 models

• T63L16 Global Atmosphere General
• Circulation Model
• Highly Resolved Regional Climate Model
• T63L30 Global Ocean Model and sea-ice model
• Pacific-Indian Ocean circulation model with high
  resolution
• El Nino prediction model

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Dynamical Short-term Climate Prediction Model
System of NCC
Atmosphere, Ocean Data Assimilation
Global Atmosphere Model
Global Ocean Model
Regional Ocean Model
Couple
Couple
Nested
Regional Climate Model
Model Post-process System
El Nino Prediction Model
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The climate model give a accurate prediction for
1998 summer flood over China before 3 months
1998 summer (JJA) precipitation anomaly
percentage (prediction in April)
1998 summer (JJA) precipitation anomaly
percentage (observation)
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2003 summer precipitation is predicted successful
by global ocean-atmosphere coupled model nested
the highly resolved regional climate model
Predicted precipitation(JJA) anomaly percentage
in March(left) and May(right)
But the promulgate prediction from synthesis of
many products cant forecast flood over Huaihe
valley.
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(?)Under sustaining of computer flat with high
capability and network, integrated short-term
climate operation system has been established.
The system can satisfy the need of many country
economy departments. According to the climate
prediction background, it Can provide the effects
of climate change on country economy departments
and key regions such as water resources,
agriculture, forest, traffic, electric power and
important engineering and provide timely
decision-making service for decision departments.
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Frame of short-term climate prediction
Climate evaluation and service operational
subsystem IBM Netfinity
NCC Catalyst 2948G
NMC Catalyst 2924M
NMC Galaxy(Yinhe)?sunway?CRAY huge computer
3 100M FastEth Chanel
2 1000M GigaEth Channel
Climate monitor-diagnosis operational
subsystem IBM Netfinity
Climate prediction operational subsystem IBM
Netfinity
Client server
Client server

Center exchange machine 701 GESW1 Catalyst 4006
Client server
Dynamical model subsystem IBM Netfinity
41000M Fibre Channel
Monitor flat IBM 43P-150
SP console IBM 43P-150
main server IBM SP Climate databank
server Scientific calculate server
web manager
Light fibre disk array(1.3TB)
Minitype tape store
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Summary for six-year seasonal prediction by use
of theprediction system (1998-2003)
Correct prediction
Basically correct, but with regional floods
incorrectly predicted
1998 Floods in theYangtze River and Northeast
China 2000 Above-normal precipitation in the
region between theYellow River and the Huaihe
River drought in North China
1999 drought in North China, but floods in
Southern Jiangsu (23June-1July)
2001 Above-normal precipitation along coastal
region drought in central part of China
2002 drought in North China and floods in South
China
2003 increased precipitation in North China but
floods in the Huaihe River(27June-12July)
Good skill for large-scale area and general
trends and relatively low skill for regional
floods
Predictve capability
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Seasonal precipitation prediction(left) and
observation(right) for 1998 summer (Anomaly
percentage)
1998 summer, heavy floods occurred in whole
Yangtze basins, predictions for range and
intensity are quite successful
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Seasonal precipitation prediction for 1999 summer
(Anomaly percentage) (left predicted right
observed)
1999???(68?)?????????
1999???(68?)???????????
1999???,?????????,????????? ,?????????,???????????
???? ,?????????????????????????????,????????????
?
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Seasonal precipitation prediction(left) and
observation(right) for 2000 summer (Anomaly
percentage)
2000 summer, predictions are right for flood over
Huanghe and Huaihe valleys and drought over some
regions in North of China, The prediction
evaluation highly reached 76, with 11
increase compared to which in 9th 5-yr plan and
being the third since 1978.
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Seasonal precipitation prediction(left) and
observation(right) for 2001 summer (Anomaly
percentage)
2001 summer, the prediction is consistent to
observation, there are flood over East of Huanghe
and Huaihe valleys, lower of Yangtze basin, most
regions in South of China, east of Southwest
China, northwest of Sinkiang, with drought over
most regions in North China and Yangtze basins.
But raininess belts in prediction is weaker than
observation in South of China and stronger in
north of China.
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Seasonal precipitation prediction for 2002 summer
(Anomaly percentage) (left predicted right
observed)
2002???(68?)?????????
2002???(68?)???????????
?? 2002???,?????????????,?????????????????????????
??????,??????????????????????????,????????????????
?????????????????????????????????????????
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Seasonal precipitation prediction for 2003 summer
(Anomaly percentage) (left predicted right
observed)
?????????????????,??????????????????,???(????)???
??????????????????????????????????
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(?) Using popularize and society economical
benefits
Since 1998, the system has been turning into
the main operational system in national climate
center and 7 regional meteorology centers and
playing skeleton action,besides, many kinds of
climate products and information being put out
periodically or non-periodically by different
medium form . The project has remarkable
international influence and provide winter,
summer and stride-year climate prediction for
East Asian and Southeast Asian on East Asian
international climate conference hold by turns in
China, Japan and Korea every year. Which has
established the foundation for national climate
center to upgrade being Asian regional climate
center underling WMO.
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Significance of the project implementation
Improve greatly modernization level of
meteorology option in our country, and make a
great progress from empirical and statistical
method to objective, quantitative and automatic
prediction. bring along improvement of whole
numerical weather and climate prediction
technique. Intensify our international
competition in this domain.