Sarah E. Randolph

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Biotic layers in GIS for predicting the risk of
emergent disease
Sarah E. Randolph
Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, UK
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Commonly emergent infectious diseases are zoonoses
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Two fundamental questions to answer before we
can predict the risk of emergent zoonoses
What determines the presence of enzootic cycles?
What determines the presence of enzootic cycles?
What causes the iceberg to grow?
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How to make predictive distribution maps
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Layers in a Geographical Information System
Abiotic Biotic Non-biological
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Multi-temporal NOAA AVHRR sensor data from
meteorological satellites provide seasonal images
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Satellite image of land surface temperature for
Europe Fourier-processed monthly data 1982-1993,
mean, annual amplitude, annual phase
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Individual Fourier variables of satellite data as
layers in a Geographical Information System
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Satellite-derived predicted distribution of
Tick-Borne Encephalitis compared with the
recorded foci (IMMUNO, 1997) across Europe
Randolph SE (2000), Advances in Parasitology 47,
217-243
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• Environmental changes?
• Climate
• Land-cover and habitats

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Data redrawn from Jensen PM Frandsen F (2000)
Scand. J. Infect. Dis. 35, 539-44
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Hosts and/or vectors
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How to make predictive biotic layers
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• Extrapolate to large scale, driven by
  environmental
• factors in GIS

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R0 maps Spatially explicit predictions of the
risk of infectious diseases

• Driven by real-time changes in environmental
  variables

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• Warnings of which known zoonoses may emerge,
  where and when

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Past and present members of
Wladimir Alonso Nick Ogden
Chris Beattie Ben McCormick Noel Craine
Pat Nuttall Graeme Cumming Mick Peacey
Rob Green Philip Pond Andrew Hoodless
Jorn Scharlemann Vicki Hughes David
Strange Klaus Kurtenbach Dana Sumilo
Charlie Lawrie Collaboration with David
Rogers, TALA Research group, Oxford Milan
Labuda, Bratislava Lise Gern,
Neuchâtel Funded by Wellcome Trust
Natural Environment Research Council, UK
DEFRA EU - framework 6
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Temporal Fourier processing seasonal
characteristics of a habitat are summarized as
amplitudes and phases ( timing)