OASIS In-Space Architecture -

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OASIS In-Space Architecture - A
Commercialization Analysis
May 3, 2002 The Boeing Company Doug Blue Dave
Carey Matt Jew Rudy Saucillo Bill Siegfried
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Executive Summary Background

• Orbital Aggregation Space Infrastructure
  Systems (OASIS) is an in-space architecture
  concept consisting of highly reusable systems and
  resources that provide a common infrastructure
  for enabling a large class of space missions
• FY01 RASC studies focused on preliminary design
  of OASIS elements and analysis of Lunar Gateway
  and commercial mission scenarios
• This study package summarizes results of FY01
  OASIS commercialization analyses
• OASIS capability and potential commercial markets
  (traffic model)
• Economic viability analysis
• Preliminary costing of OASIS elements

Hybrid Propellant Module
Chemical Transfer Module
Solar Electric Propulsion Stage
Crew Transfer Vehicle
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Executive SummaryResults

• OASIS Commercial Traffic Models
• OASIS performance has been evaluated for
  commercial satellite applications
• OASIS commercial traffic models have been
  developed based on satellite delivery considered
  the floor for potential commercial
  applications
• Future DoD missions may provide additional OASIS
  applications/usage rates
• OASIS Economic Viability
• HPM/CTM has commercial potential when used as an
  orbital transfer stage in conjunction with alow
  cost booster to LEO at flight rates greater than
  3 per year per HPM/CTM
• OASIS commercial viability is highly sensitive to
  infrastructure costs, mission rates and
  Earth-to-LEO launch costs

The cost information provided herein is for study
purposes only and does not constitute a
commitment on the part of the Boeing Company.
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Table of Contents

• Overview and Assumptions
• Projected Satellites/Constellations
• Performance Analyses
• Integrated Traffic Model
• Economic Viability Analysis
• Cost Estimation Analysis
• Summary

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Commercialization StudyOverview and Assumptions
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Overview and Assumptions

• Objectives
• Assess OASIS applicability and benefits for
  Earth Neighborhood commercial and DoD space
  missions in the 2015 timeframe
• Determine key needs for projected commercial/DoD
  missions that OASIS may support (e.g.,
  deployment, refueling/servicing,
  retrieval/disposal)
• Quantify levels of potential commercial
  utilization and develop ROM estimates for
  economic impacts
• Study Drivers
• Projected commercial/DoD satellite market
• OASIS design (sizing, performance)
• OASIS allocation to support identified markets
  (traffic models)
• ETO transportation costs (trades vs. non-OASIS
  architectures, cost of resupply propellant)
• Assumptions
• Scenarios utilize OASIS elements defined for
  Exploration missions using performance masses
• A low cost Earth-to-LEO transportation capability
  is required
• Highly reliable RLV or ELV for sensitive cargo
• Lower cost LEO delivery system for propellant
  resupply
• Industry adopts common infrastructure (e.g.,
  attach fittings, refueling ports, plug-and-play
  avionics)
• Goal - Maximize potential commercial
  opportunities (i.e., Greatest number of
  satellites deployed/serviced with minimum number
  of OASIS elements)

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Commercialization Study Methodology
Inputs
Refinement of Commercial Traffic Models

• Potential OASIS support roles
• OASIS operations strategies
• Best fit OASIS orbit planes

• OASIS Specs
• Commercial Satellite Traffic Models
• Military Analogs
• Ground Rules Assumptions
• Technology Initiative Databases

Commercial OASIS Traffic Model Development
OASIS Economic Viability Analysis

• High and Low Traffic Models
• Integrated Commercial, Military Exploration
• OASIS elements and flight rate per mission type
• ETO estimate for HPM resupply propellant

• HPM/CTM life cycle revenue potential
• ETO cost targets (satellite delivery and HPM
  resupply propellant)
• HPM/CTM non-recurring start-up cost

OASIS Performance Analysis

• Speed curves for LEO, MEO and GEO missions
• Single and multiple OASIS operations

FY02 Study Products
FY01 Study Products

• Research technology development efforts
• Estimate complexity factors
• Estimate costs using Cost Estimating
  Relationships

• OASIS resizing options
• Enabling/enhancing technologies for commercial
  operations
• Satellite design and operations impacts

• Integrated Commercial, DoD and Exploration
  Traffic Models
• Preliminary Economic Viability Analysis

• Technology development cost estimates
• First unit production cost estimates

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Commercialization StudyProjected
Satellites/Constellations
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Satellite Market Trends -
Comstac Futron Studies

• Commercial
• NGSO market estimates fluctuating, trends
  volatile
• GEO launch demand fairly constant ( gt30/year)
• Spacecraft mass growth continues - especially
  heavies ( gt5,445 kg)
• Spacecraft trend toward electric propulsion
• Commercial launch demand trends
• Consolidation of spacecraft manufacturers/owners
• Increasing on-orbit lifetime
• Business conservatism for financing projects

• DoD
• DoD applications difficult to identify programs
  under definition
• Trend toward greater value and functionality per
  satellite unit mass initial picosatellite
  experiments have been completed
• AF Science Advisory Board distributed
  constellations of smaller satellites offer better
  prospects for global, real-time coverage and
  advantages in scaling, performance, cost, and
  survivability
• Potential for very large antenna arrays for
  optical and radio-frequency imaging utilizing
  advanced structures and materials technologies

Comstac Forecast Trends in Payload Mass
Distribution
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Current NGSO Commercial Constellation Summary
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Current NGSO Military Constellation Summary

• Commercial/Military parameter summary
• Total constellation count 39
• Altitude range gt 556 to 2,800 km
• Except for GPS (20,200 km), New ICO (10,390 km),
  Rostelesat (10,360 km), 3 elliptical
  constellations
• Inclination range gt 45 to 117 degrees
• Except for ECCO, ECO-8, and Ellipso (part) all at
  0 degrees
• Orbit planes gt 1 to 8
• Data available for 27 constellations for OASIS
  traffic model analysis

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Current Distribution of GEO Satellites

• Satellite count 279
• Near uniform distribution
• Projected 30 launches per year

Co-located satellites offset by 2 degree
latitude increments for display Source data
www.lyngsat.com
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Commercial and DoD Satellite Scenarios

• Deployment
• Delivery, Rescue
• Replacement, Disposal
• Servicing
• Refueling
• Refurbishing
• DoD Applications
• Same as aboveplus Repositioning
• Next generation, follow-on to DARPA Orbital
  Express (OE) Space Operations Architecture
  Program
• OE demonstration planned for CY2006
• OE uses industry standard interfaces

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NASA-USAF Reusable Space Launch Development
Integrated Architecture Elements
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Commercialization Study OASIS Performance
Analyses
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OASIS Payload/Velocity Speed Curves (Utilizing
a Single HPM Per Mission)
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OASIS Performance Capability vs. Representative
Spacecraft
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Analysis Assumptions

• Market
• Future NGSO constellations will exist in similar
  orbits as recently envisioned
• Launch Vehicle
• Delivers payloads to 400 km circular parking
  orbits at inclination (inc) and right ascension
  (RA) of stored OASIS elements closest to final
  orbit
• HPM
• A propellant reserve provides 150 mps velocity
  reserve for maneuvers (e.g., rendezvous,
  proximity operations and docking, reboost in
  storage orbits, etc)
• CTM
• HPM chemical engine applies DV impulsively at
  locally optimal orbit locations
• Perigee and Apogee (i.e., Hohmann transfers) for
  altitude variation
• Node crossings for inclination changes
• Nodal complement locations for right ascension
  changes
• Propellant is available to autonomously
  pre-position to HPM rendezvous point as necessary
• SEP
• Not considered in analyses due to mission
  duration impact and refurbishment costs
• Satellite
• Satellite battery life available for 2 days
  autonomous operation between LEO delivery and HPM
  docking and mission completion - Boeing
  Satellite Systems concurs

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NGSO Constellation Orbital Distribution
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Satellite Orbit Transfer Definitions
Orbital Volume Definitions
HPM/CTM to Satellite Orbit Maneuver Sequence
Initial Orbit
Final Orbit
Altitude
1. Raise HPM/CTM altitude Holmann transfer
with DVs at perigee and apogee of transfer orbit
Inclination
2. Change inclination DV perpendicular to orbit
plane at ascending or descending node
Equatorial plane
3. Change right ascension DV perpendicular to
orbit plane 90o from ascending or descending
node
Right Ascension of Ascending Node
Sequence steps 2 and 3 reversed if
satellite inclination gt HPM/CTM inclination
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NGSO Analysis Results

• Initial analysis
• For each satellite in current market
• Calculate DV required for delivery and return
• Compare DV to HPM/CTM capability
• Adjust HPM/CTM inclination and orbit planesto
  improve performance
• Results
• Only 14 of 27 constellations deployable
• Need 3 constellations, total of 30 HPM/CTMs (10
  in each constellation)

• Revised analysis
• For each satellite
• Recalculate DV required without Right Ascension
  plane change
• Compare with HPM/CTM capability
• Compute nodal alignment phase time
• Results
• 24 of 27 constellations deployable
• Need 2 constellations, total of 18 HPM/CTMs
• Launch windows occur within 30 days

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NGSO Traffic Model Conclusions

• HPM/CTM Constellation Allocation
• Most of the current suite of commercial/military
  constellations are deployable/serviceable
• Requires one constellation of 8 HPM/CTMs near
  ISS inclination
• Requires one constellation of 10 HPM/CTMs near
  polar inclination
• Planar launch window opportunities within 30
  days
• MEO satellites (e.g., GPS) are delivered to
  transfer orbits using near ISS HPM/CTMs

Nominal Traffic Model for 18 total HPM/CTMs
Use Rates
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Commercialization Study Integrated OASIS
Traffic Model
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OASIS Integrated Traffic Model
Traffic model variation is based on satellite
lifetime extremes
Lifetime Estimates 5 years 10
years

• Refined commercial traffic model based on
• Higher usage rate missions only (gt 3 flights per
  HPM per year)
• Single launch site from ETR to eliminate
  duplication of ground infrastructure (excludes
  polar servicing)
• 50 market share (of high traffic model)

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Commercialization Study OASIS Economic
Viability Analysis
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OASIS Economic Viability Analysis Overview

• Objective
• Provide a preliminary economic viability
  assessment of HPM/CTM in future commercial
  satellite deployment/servicing markets as defined
  by the integrated traffic model
• Approach
• Compare potential life cycle earnings over range
  of critical economic factors
• Identify economic factors with strong influence
  on earnings
• Determine the economic sensitivity and establish
  hurdle values for these critical factors
• Earning levels necessary for economic viability
  include allowance for non-recurring start up
  costs
• Start up costs per HPM/CTM include HPM/CTM
  procurement (ROM estimate 150 million each),
  and initial launch, development and deployment of
  commercial peculiar infrastructure (e.g., HPM
  propellant processing facilities)
• Start up costs per HPM/CTM assumed not to exceed
  500 million actual value varies inversely with
  fleet size
• Industry leverages government investment in
  infrastructure development

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Identification of Critical Economic Factors

• Critical Economic Factors
• Charge to deploy satellite to operational orbit
• Propellant delivery cost to LEO ( per kg)
• Payload (satellite) cost ( per kg) to LEO
• HPM/CTM use rate
• Life cycle earnings

• Ch
• Prop
• P/L
• R

• Definition
• Total charge to customer to deploy their
  satellite
• Establishes cost to resupply HPM with full load
  (32,000 kg) of propellant per deployment
• 5,000 kg payload, calculated at twice the /kg
  as propellant
• HPM/CTM flights per year (based on traffic model
  analysis)
• LCE Ch - (Prop P/L)R10 year HPM/CTM life

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Economic Sensitivities
Life Cycle Earnings
30 M Deployment Charge (Ch)
70 M Deployment Charge (Ch)
6
10
Area of Economic Viability
Area of Economic Viability
4
8
HPM/CTM Use Rate Flts/yr
6
2
HPM/CTM Use Rate Flts/yr
4
0
Life Cycle Earnings ( Billions)
3
Life Cycle Earnings ( Billions)
2
3
-2
6
0
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Charge to Deploy 5,000 kg Satellite to
Operational Orbit
-4
Charge to Deploy 5,000 kg Satellite to
Operational Orbit
9
12
-2
15
-6
-4
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
0
Propellant Delivery Cost to LEO ( per kg)
Commercial Viability Requires

• Low propellant delivery cost (lt 1,000/kg)
• HPM/CTM use rates gt 3 flights per year

• Industry leverages government investment in
  infrastructure
• Enough life cycle earnings to
• Cover start-up costs (HPM/CTM procurement/deployme
  nt and infrastructure estimated to be as much as
  0.5 billion)
• Provide desired return on investment

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OASIS Cost Estimation Analysis

• Objectives
• Estimate costs for the OASIS reusable space
  architecture
• Technology development to TRL 6
• First unit production of four elements

Hybrid Propellant Module

• Assumptions/Groundrules
• Compatible with current launch systems
• Based on Boeing-derived parametric cost models
  with complexity factors and industry technology
  development forecasts
• Includes industrial development factors
  (commonality, man-rating, management reserve)
• Initial Operational Capability in 2015

Chemical Transfer Module
Solar Electric Propulsion Module
Multi-use benefit -gt Shared infrastructure costs
(Industry, NASA, DoD)
Crew Transfer Vehicle (with CTM)
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References for Commercial Satellite Traffic
Models and Military Analogs

• Futron Corporation. Trends in Space Commerce
  March 2001.
• Provides trends for major space industry segments
  through 2020
• Based on survey polls of 700 global aerospace
  companies
• Federal Aviation Administration. 2001
  Commercial Space Transportation Projections for
  Non-geosynchronous Orbits (NGSO) May 2001.
  referred to as the Comstac Study
• Projects launch demand for commercial space
  systems through 2010
• Based on survey of 90 industry organizations
• Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments
  (CSBA). The Military Use of Space A Diagnostic
  Assessment February 2001.
• Assessment of the evolving capabilities of
  nations and other actors to exploit near-Earth
  space for military purposes over the next 20-25
  years.
• Based on interviews with key military personnel
  and web site research
• Review of numerous Web sites
• For satellite constellation detail
• AIAA International Reference Guide to Space
  Launch Systems 1999.
• Information on current launch costs

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Additional References for Commercial Satellite
Traffic Models and Military Analogs

• World Space Systems Briefing , the Teal Group,
  Fairfax, Va., presented during the IAF 52nd
  International Astronautical Congress in Toulouse,
  France, October 2, 2001.
• Summary of current satellite market
• Research and Development in CONUS Labs (RaDiCL)
  Data Base 1999.
• Military laboratory technology initiatives
• NASA Technology Inventory Data Base 2001.
• NASA funded technology activities
• Technology Planning Briefing, Boeing Space and
  Communications, June 2001.
• Summary of Boeings IRAD programs to enable
  technologies
• Interviews with Boeing personnel
• Orbital Express Program (DARPA) to identify
  additional military analogs
• 3rd Generation RLV Enterprise use of HPM or
  similar element in overall transportation
  architecture
• Roy A. E., The Foundations of Astrodynamics,
  MacMillan Company, dated 1965
• Closed-form delta-velocity calculations

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Cost Estimation References
Telecons/Meetings

• HPM Team Points of Contact
• OASIS - Pat Troutman, LaRC
• HPM - Jeff Antol, LaRC
• CTM - Vance Houston, MSFC
• SEP - Tim Sarver-Verhey, GRC
• CTV - Bill CiriIlo, LaRC

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Cost Estimation References
Databases/Documents/Cost Models
RASC Database, HPM_Concept_JA_oct4.xls, Dated Oct
4, 2001 NASA Technology Plan web site, URL
technologyplan.nasa.gov OASIS FY01 Final Report
draft, ftp site taurus.larc.nasa.gov Numerous
web sites for specific technology details NASA
Cost Model, NASCOM, Version 96
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Acronym List
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Acronym List