Space Weather Prediction at Big Bear Solar Observatory

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Space Weather Prediction at Big Bear Solar
Observatory

• Haimin Wang
• Big Bear Solar Observatory
• New Jersey Institute of Technology

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http//www.bbso.njit.edu/
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2 27 Meter Dishes in the Owens Valley Solar Array
(OVSA)

• Unique in the World
• Array Includes
• 3 (soon to be 5) 2
• meter dishes
• Frequency Agile
• Multiple Baselines

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BBSO White Light Image of Sun 8/20/1999

• Suns Temperature
• Center 15,000,000 K
• Surface 4,000 K
• Corona 5,000,000 K
• Energy Source
• Nuclear Fusion
• Energy Transport
• Radiative to 0.7 R
• Convective 0.7-1.0 R

Sunspots
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Other Observing Tools

• Global Halpha Network (1 min. cadence, 2K by 2K
  cameras)
• BBSO
• Kanzalhohe Solar Observatory
• Yunnan Observatory
• Huairou Solar Observatory
• Vector Magnetograph Network
• BBSO
• Huairou Solar Observatory
• Crimean Astronomical Observatory

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High Resolution Observations
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BBSO Vector Magnetogram December 13, 2000I, V,
Q and U
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(No Transcript)
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BBSO Ha Image of the Sun

• Image from 8/20/1999 same day as the white
  light image
• Filaments and Prominences are cold, dark
  magnetized material held in magnetic basket above
  the Suns visible surface suspended in the
  corona
• Prominence bright against dark backdrop
• Ha sensitive to T10,000 K the chromosphere

Prominence
Filaments
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Sun in UV (304 Å) SOHO/EIT

• 8/20/1999
• Satellite data used in concert with BBSO to
  understand Sun
• Still see filaments and prominences at T80,000 K
• See Coronal holes
• See Brightness at Limb

Prominence
Filaments
Coronal Hole
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Sun in EUV (284 Å) SOHO/EIT

• 8/20/1999
• See prominences and filaments dark against the
  now bright corona
• Temperature sensitivity near 1,500,000 K
• Filaments and prominences fading as corona
  brightens

Prominence
Filaments
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Sun in X-Ray (YOHKOH)

• 8/19/1999
• Prominences and filaments now gone, but corona is
  very bright
• Temperature sensitivity about 4,000,000 K
• Higher temperature means sampling higher in the
  solar atmosphere

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Suns Magnetic Field -- KPNO

• 8/20/1999
• Magnetogram with bright and dark regions being
  opposite polarities of the line-of-sight magnetic
  field
• Filaments/Prominences along the neutral line
  between opposing polarities

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Sunspot Number

• Sunspot number 1620 1996

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The Sun in X-Ray Light
Solar Activity Minimum --1996
Solar Activity Maximum--2000
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Prominence Eruption in Ha BBSO

• 4/15/2001
• Prominence eruption
• Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) may accompany some
  filament/prominence eruptions
• Earth-directed CMEs can have geomagnetic effects

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April 15, 2001 Prominence Eruption
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Space Weather Effects
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Real Time Reports and Forecasting
www.bbso.njit.edu

• BBSO Activity Report
• BBSO Activity Warnings
• Automated Filament Disappearances Detections
• Active Region Monitor

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Filament Eruptions, Flares, CMEs and
Interplanetary Magnetic Clouds

• Association of Filament Eruptions with CMEs
• Surface Magnetic Structure and that of Magnetic
  Clouds
• Topology of Magnetic Fields and Eruptive Events
• Loop Interaction
• Eruption of Twisted Loops

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Relationship Between Filament Eruptions and CMEs
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Surface Magnetic Field Structure and Toplology of
Interplanetary Magnetic Clouds (IMC)

• Use Vector magnetograms, Halpha, TRACE, Yohkoh
  and SOHO data to constructure surface magnetic
  field structure
• Use ACE/Wind Magnetometer data to derive topology
  of IMC
• If the relationship can be established, 2 day
  advanced warning can be provided for the
  prediction of South-Orientated IMC

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Case Studies

• Yurchyshyn et al., 2001, Ap.J., sunmitted
• 2/17/2000 event
• 7/14/2000 event

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Sympathetic Flares
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LASCO C3 Movie, 2/17/2000
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LFFF Extrapolation, 2/17/2000
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ACE Data, 2/17/2000
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Halpha, 07/14/2000
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LFFF Extrapolation, 7/14/2000
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LASCO C2, 7/14/2000
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ACE Data, 7/14/2000
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Cartoon to Demonstrate two Events (top,
2/17/2000, bottom, 7/14/2000)
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MDI Movie (11/23 to 11/25, 2000)
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Halpha Movie, 11/24/2000 Flare
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Summary

• Unique High Quality Data
• Well Established Data Analysis Tools
• Established Real-Time Monitoring of Solar Acticity