UK AGRICULTURAL CHANGE

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UK AGRICULTURAL CHANGE ENVIRONMENT OBSERVATORY
PROGRAMME

• Nigel Boatman
• Central Science Laboratory. York, UK
• Janet Dwyer
• Countryside Community Research Unit, University
  of Gloucestershire, UK
• Helen Dunn, Steve Langton and Lindsey Clothier
• Defra
• http//www.defra.gov.uk/farm/policy/observatory/in
  dex.htm

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ROLE OF THE OBSERVATORY

• Run and funded by Defra (Department of
  Environment, Food and Rural Affairs).
• Three year programme, started autumn 2005. Covers
  England only.
• Internal Defra team plus externally commissioned
  projects
• Aims to
• Provide evidence to support policy
• Identify significant trends in agriculture, and
  their environmental impacts
• Predict longer term changes
• Maintain integrated programme of monitoring and
  evaluation

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CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK
 
Driver Mechanism Process
Agricultural Environmental
Change Impact
Species habitats
Enterprise mix
Support
Landscape
Soil
CAP reform
Farm decision making
Land use
Conditions
Air
Inputs
Prices
Water
Management
Heritage
Other market conditions
Other policy market change
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Defra Internal team projects

• Analysis of SPS administrative data
• Environmental impacts of changes in set-aside and
  fallow
• Environmental impacts of changes in English dairy
  and beef cattle numbers

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• Single Payment Scheme Projections for 2012

Source Farm Business Survey 2004/05
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• Set aside Changes in distribution by JCA

2003
2004 2005
Lighter shading represents higher areas of
set-aside or fallow
Source Defra, June Survey
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• Set aside Changes in distribution by JCA

2004
2005 2006
Lighter shading represents higher areas of
set-aside or fallow
Source Defra, June Survey
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• Early evidence of change

Source ADAS Farmers Voice 2006
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EXTERNAL PROJECTS, 2006Carried out by CSL and
CCRU
OBS 01 Baseline environmental monitoring OBS
02 CAP Reform Implications of farm level
change for environmental outcomes OBS 03
Quantitative approaches to assessment OBS 04
Synthesis report summarises OBS 01-3
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SOURCES OF EVIDENCE

• OBS 01 monitoring
• Review of monitoring schemes
• Compilation of indicator data for baseline
  assessment
• OBS 02 farm level changes and impacts
• Literature review on changes arising from CAP
  reform and likely impacts
• Stakeholder seminars
• Expert interviews
• OBS 03 quantitative approaches
• Literature review on effects of agricultural
  practices on environment impacts of predicted
  changes
• Review of modelling approaches
• Case studies (see later)

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OBS 01 Indicators and baseline environmental
monitoring

• Select indicators for agricultural
  environmental change
• Criteria for choice
• good spatial disaggregation
• ability to track at /- annual intervals,
• 5-10 year time series
• links to other policy indicators
• Baseline assessment
• Current values and recent trends
• Identify gaps and how they could be addressed
• Indicators now published at
• http//statistics.defra.gov.uk/esg/ace/default.htm

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INDICATORS AND GAPS
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OBS 2 Farming change - approach

• Literature review
• tracking early and predicted farming change
• 3 Practitioner workshops
• Lowland livestock (incl. dairy)
• Upland (LFA) farming
• Arable and horticulture
• Expert interviews
• Farm sectors
• Environmental specialists

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Likely change arable horticulture
Set aside / fallow
Grazing / mixed organic, intensive beef, outdoor
pigs, equine (livery)
Poorer land
Woodland
or
Leisure theme parks / trails
Combinable crops
Land leaves farming
Bio-energy, novel crops pharmaceuticals,
ornamentals, wine, fibres
Better land
Nature parks
housing, roads
Sugar
Larger, more specialised, simpler wheat - rape
rotations, using fallows, lower cost operations
Horticulture
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Likely system changes - lowland livestock
Various kinds of cropping wheat, novel (e.g.
wine, pharmaceuticals)
Organic, mixed
or
Dairy
Land leaves farming
Beef
Less efficient/ other motivations
Sheep
Biggest,most efficient
housing, infrastructure, leisure, nature
Larger, more specialised
Beef and sheep
Horses (livery)
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Likely system changes LFA farms
Localised scrub / woodland
Horses (livery)
Upland sheep (breeding and finishing)
System integration
or
Hill Sheep (breeding)
Land leaves farming leisure, nature, woodlands
Beef
Upland Dairy
Larger, much more extensive, more wethers / old
stock
Beef and sheep
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Environmental Implications - Arable areas

• Less barley, sugar, more wheat and rape, block
  cropping reduced erosion, increased N,
  pesticide change but no fall, reduced
  biodiversity and landscape interest
• More fallow positive for soils, water, air,
  lower inputs, benefits to biodiversity,
  landscape/heritage
• Increase in novel crops some benefits for
  landscape, biodiversity, input use variable,
  impact on water, soils and air depends on crop
• Potential for big increase in energy cropping
  rape and wheat short term but SRC, miscanthus
  etc. longer term likely to displace
  fallow/set-aside, increase inputs, reduced
  biodiversity and landscape interest, increased
  pollution. Perennial crops more beneficial?

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Environmental Implications Lowland grassland

• Concentration of dairy onto larger holdings,
  better land, more intensive management (more
  maize) increased pressure on water, soil, air,
  reduced biodiversity, but on smaller land area
• Extensification of livestock on poorer land,
  shift from dairy to beef, from cattle to sheep
  and ponies benefits for water, soils, air, some
  threats to biodiversity and landscape, heritage
  benefits
• Growth in organic / mixed / arable on non-dairy
  better land, also growth in horses/other use -
  organic mixed good for most assets. Other uses
  positive for air, gains and losses in different
  areas for water, soils, biodiversity, landscapes

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Environmental Implications - Hills and uplands

• Extensification / abandonment of commons /open
  moor, concentration on best land and integration
  of breeding and finishing mostly positive for
  water soils (but local problems?), air, initial
  benefits but then negative for biodiversity,
  landscapes, heritage
• Loss of most dairying and decline in beef cattle,
  replaced by sheep, and some horses / goats
  possibly reduced soil erosion and water quality
  benefits, probably lower biodiversity and
  landscape interest
• Possible polarisation between environmental
  managers / diversified businesses and much
  larger holdings with simplified management
  regimes positives and negatives for all assets

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Environmental Implications nationwide patterns

• Increased rate of land moving into leisure /
  hobby farming / amenity etc., benefits for water,
  soils and air, mixed or positive for biodiversity
  and landscapes (though may need environmental
  management advice/support)
• Increased rate of loss of farmland to development
  small area, but locally significant. Impacts
  often irreversible, may be negative for water,
  soils, air, neutral for biodiversity and
  landscape? - depends critically upon design and
  variety

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OBS 03 conclusions

• We have good understanding of farming practice
  environmental impact relationships
• Only some of these can be quantified
• (e.g. models for grazing, inputs, habitat
  condition)
• From OBS02 - good qualitative understanding of
  how policy change is likely to influence practice
  
• (currently being updated)

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CASE STUDIES

• Two case studies
• upland (Peak District)
• lowland arable (East Anglia)
• Two scenarios for each
• market-led
• environment-led
• Mixed methods approach
• link socio-economic change (from survey data
  qualitative information), to spatially explicit
  environmental modelling approaches
• allows examination of patterns and timing of
  impacts

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CASE STUDY METHODOLOGY

• Baseline data
• Upland vegetation survey, Land use (June
  Survey), RLR (mapping of holdings)
• Arable RLR/IACS data cropping at field level
• Estimate changes in livestock/cropping from
  OBS2 expert knowledge for market-led
  environment-led scenarios.
• Changes mapped to show spatial pattern
• Environmental impacts estimated

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Upland case study grazing density
2004
Predicted, 2012 Market-led scenario
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Upland case study overgrazing risk
Predicted, 2012 market-led scenario
2004
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Upland case study undergrazing risk
Predicted, 2012 market-led scenario
2004
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Arable case study land cover change (using
IACS/RLR data)
2004
2012, market led change
Megablocks oilseed rape
Megablocks wheat
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Arable case study findings

• Market-led scenario (block cropping and
  biofuels expansion)
• nutrient exports to surface waters predicted to
  increase by 1.8 for N and by 9.1 for P
• Landscape less heterogeneous, at both farm and
  landscape scales
• Detrimental for biodiversity
• Replacement of uncropped set-aside with
  industrial crops (oilseed rape for bioethanol, in
  this scenario) detrimental to biodiversity,
  water, soils and air

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Conclusions from case studies

• This approach appears potentially valuable
• Scope for more detailed development (time
  resource limited)
• Could be applied to many other areas and issues

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Acknowledgements

• Thanks to all those who contributed to this work,
  including
• CSL Hazel Parry, Andrew Cuthbertson, Julie
  Bishop, Carmel Ramwell, Stephane Pietravalle
• CCRU Peter Gaskell, Jane Mill, Julie Ingram