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ESM 211 Applied Population Ecology

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Title: ESM 211 Applied Population Ecology


1
ESM 211 Applied Population Ecology
  • Fall 2006
  • Bruce Kendall
  • 4514 Bren Hall
  • x7539 kendall_at_bren.ucsb.edu

2
Defining endangerment the US Endangered Species
Act
  • A species is listed under one of two categories,
    endangered or threatened, depending on its status
    and the degree of threat it faces. An
    endangered species is one that is in danger of
    extinction throughout all or a significant
    portion of its range. A threatened species is
    one that is likely to become endangered in the
    foreseeable future. To help conserve genetic
    diversity, the ESA defines species broadly to
    include subspecies and (for vertebrates) distinct
    populations. (USFWS 2005, p. 1)

3
Listing decision under the US ESA
  • A species is added to the list when it is
    determined to be endangered or threatened because
    of any of the following factors
  • the present or threatened destruction,
    modification, or curtailment of the species
    habitat or range
  • overutilization for commercial, recreational,
    scientific, or educational purposes
  • disease or predation
  • the inadequacy of existing regulatory mechanisms
  • other natural or manmade factors affecting the
    species survival.

4
Defining endangerment the IUCN Red List
  • 7 categories
  • Extinct (EX) Extinct in the Wild (EW)
  • Critically Endangered (CR) Endangered (EN)
    Vulnerable (VU)
  • Near Threatened (NT) Least Concern (LC)
  • Classification into CR, EN or VU based on
    quantitative criteria most restrictive of 5

5
Red List Criterion A
6
Red List Criterion C
7
Red List Criterion D
8
Red List Criterion E
9
Population Viability Analysis
  • PVA is the use of quantitative methods to predict
    the likely future status of a population or
    collection of populations of conservation concern
  • Future status
  • Threshold population size (perhaps zero)
  • Trends in population size

10
Logistics
  • Roll
  • Computer accounts
  • Experiences

11
Objectives understand the following
  • population monitoring programs study design,
    data collection, data analysis
  • how to design population models from qualitative
    biological information
  • how to parameterize population models
  • how to use the population model to project the
    fate of the population under various management
    scenarios, and identify management actions that
    are most likely to be effective
  • how to cope with variability and uncertainty in
    all of the above
  • how to link the output of population models to
    management decision-making and social
    optimization tools

12
Term project
  • The IUCN/SSC Equid Specialist Group
    (http//www.iucn.org/themes/ssc/sgs/equid/) wants
    to re-evaluate the status of the 7 wild equid
    species (zebras, wild horses, wild asses)
  • I should be getting data within a couple of
    weeks.
  • Working in teams, you will use the red list
    criteria to assess the species. The final
    product will include the formal assessment
    summary as well as a document that describes your
    analyses in detail.

13
Term Project backup plan
  • Analyze some population data and to perform a
    PVA, using whatever techniques are appropriate to
    the problem at hand.
  • Prepare a monitoring plan.

14
Assess extinction risk of single population
  • Mark Shaffer (Ph.D. student at Duke) Will
    Yellowstone grizzlies have 95 chance of
    surviving to different times in the future?
  • 100 years yes
  • 300 years no
  • Influenced mgmt of GYE (less clear
    cutting mining)
  • Forestalled premature removal from ESA
    threatened list
  • First quantitative PVA (1978)

M.L. Shaffer (1981) BioScience 31131-134
15
Compare relative risks of multiple populations
  • 10 of 11 local populations of Northern Spotted
    Owl are declining
  • Which salmon populations can be preserved with
    limited funding?
  • Allows triage
  • Some populations will be OK on their own
  • Some populations will be impossible to save
  • Focus on the rest, where conservation efforts
    will make a difference

E.D. Forsman et al. (1996) Demography of the
Northern Spotted Owl F.W. Allendorf et al. (1997)
Conservation Biology 11140-152
16
F.W. Allendorf et al. (1997) Conservation Biology
11140-152
17
Analyze synthesize monitoring data
  • Are gray whale data sufficient to merit
    delisting?
  • Species delisted in '94, after 17
    surveys
  • Survey costs 60,000
  • Could have been delisted in 1978,
    after 11 surveys

L.R. Gerber et al. (1999) Conservation Biology
131215-1219
18
Identify key life stages or demographic processes
as management targets
  • What life stage of sea turtles is most
    susceptible to management intervention?
  • Improving hatchling survival on beaches helps,
    but is not sufficient
  • Juvenile adult survival needs to be improved
  • Analysis led to implementation of TEDs

D. Crouse (1987) Ecology 681412-1423
19
Determine reserve size to achieve desired
protection
  • How large do parks in semi-arid Africa need to be
    to preserve elephants in the face of various
    drought projections?
  • Large population size is good
  • 3.1 elephants per mile2
  • Need 500 mile2 for 99 chance of persisting
    1000 years

P. Armbruster R. Lande (1993) Conservation
Biology 7602-610
20
Determine number of individuals to release to
establish new pop
  • Tradeoff between number of new populations and
    size of each
  • Latter effects probability that each succeeds
  • What is the value of continuing to add new
    individuals after initial release?
  • Capercaillie in Scotland for 95 probability of
    surviving 50 years, need initial release of
  • Without supplementation 60 individuals
  • With 2 individuals added every 5 years 10
    individuals

K. Marshall G. Edward Jones (1998)
Biodiversity and Conservation 7275-296
21
Set limits on harvest or take
  • How many (and what stage) individuals can be
    taken before pop declines?
  • Harvest (e.g., black bear, wild ginseng)
  • Bycatch
  • Habitat destruction
  • Particularly relevant for setting levels of
    allowable take under ESA and HCP

22
Determine how many ( which) populations needed
for species persistence
  • Furbishs lousewort grows in small populations
    on banks of single river in Maine
  • Local populations frequently go extinct through
    ice scouring
  • Protecting only extant populations will ensure
    eventual extinction
  • Must also manage other sites to enhance
    opportunities to colonize new populations

E. Menges (1990) Conservation Biology 452-62
23
Approaches to PVA
  • Count-based PVA
  • Uses census data
  • Assumes all individuals identical
  • Demographic PVA
  • Incorporates information about vital rates
  • Can include population structure
  • Spatially explicit PVA
  • Incorporates migration and colonization

24
Approaches to PVA
Biological realism
Data requirements
Bias
Precision
25
Further Reading
  • Books
  • Analysis and Management of Animal Populations
    (2002 Williams et al.)
  • Population Viability Analysis (2002 Beisinger
    McCullough, eds.)
  • Quantitative Methods for Conservation Biology
    (2000 Ferson Burgman, eds.)
  • Species Conservation and Management Case Studies
    (2004 Akcakaya et al., eds.)
  • Journals
  • Biodiversity and Conservation
  • Biological Conservation
  • Conservation Biology
  • Ecological Applications
  • Ecology and Society
  • Endangered Species UPDATE
  • Journal of Wildlife Management
  • Natural Resource Modeling

26
References
  • USFWS. 2005. Listing a Species as Threatened or
    Endangered. Online document, available at
    http//www.fws.gov/endangered/listing/listing.pdf.
    Accessed 1 Oct. 2006.
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