Simone Tuten on behalf of the Department of Agriculture,

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A new semi-quantitative model to determine pest
introduction frequency
Presented by Simone Tuten on behalf of the
Department of Agriculture, Western Australia
Plant Biosecurity Team. International Plant
Health Risk Analysis Workshop Niagara Falls,
October 2005
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Please note The research reported here is in
progress and is not finalised. The study results
have not been subjected to scientific peer review
and are presented purely as a demonstration of
the authors current thinking. This presentation
reflects the authors opinions and does not
necessarily reflect the opinions of the
Department of Agriculture, Western Australia.
Additionally this research has been undertaken by
the Western Australian State Department of
Agriculture and not by National Government
Departments. Any reliance on the information
presented here is entirely at your own risk and
the Department of Agriculture, Western Australia
takes no responsibility whatsoever for the
results of your doing so.
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Background
Western Australia
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Background

• Deserts

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Background

• Deserts
• Limited road access

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Background

• Deserts
• Limited road access
• check points
• 20 points

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Background

• Deserts
• Limited road access
• check points
• Ports

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Background

• Pest and disease freedoms
• Codling moth (Cydia pomonella )
• Oriental fruit moth (Grapholita molesta)
• Apple scab (Venturia inaequali)

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Background Australias quarantine system

• Quarantine continuum
• Partnership
• States/Territories
• Interstate trade
• National
• International trade

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Background Australias quarantine system

• Memorandum of Understanding
• Agreement
• Enables SPS compliance
• Consistency

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Background WA Plant Biosecurity

• State pest risk analyses
• Market access
• National pest risk analyses

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Background WA Plant Biosecurity

• Important considerations
• integration of consequences and PEES
• impact of volume
• multiple pathways

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The Model - Features

• Enhances existing methodology
• Incorporates
• variable input data
• trade volume
• complex scenarios
• multiple pathways
• Pest initiated is best

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The Model - Pathway
Simplistic schematic
Distribution
Importation
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The Model Output
Years before 1st introduction
1RiskGeomet(PEEannual)
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1RiskGeomet(PEEannual)
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The Model Output
Introduction frequency 1/PEEannual
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1/PEEannual
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Volume and risk
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Volume and risk

• Non linear
• high unit risk rapid increase at low volumes
• low unit risk rapid increase occurs later
• Consider all pathways and total volume
• Monitor phytosanitary measures efficacy

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Introduction frequency - applications

• Risk Communication
• Tangible
• ALOP
• Defining
• Consequences
• integrating consequences with PEES
• how often is too often?

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Introduction frequency - applications

• Management strategies
• phytosanitary measures efficacy
• Non-SPS application
• development of policy
• business planning
• strategy planning to minimise impact of trade

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Where to from here?

• Validation
• Check model assumptions
• using data collected during 2 seasons
• review and release model
• Risk assessment
• Link between introduction frequency and
• consequences
• ALOP

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The plant biosecurity team Director Plant
Biosecurity Dr Shashi Sharma ssharma_at_agric.wa.go
v.au Activity Specialist/Policy Mr Mark Stuart
mstuart_at_agric.wa.gov.au Pathologist/modelling
Ms Nichole Burges nburges_at_agric.wa.gov.au
Pathologist Dr Satendra Kumar
skumar_at_agric.wa.gov.au Entomology/climate
modelling Mr Marc Poole mpoole_at_agric.wa.gov.au
Entomology Dr John Botha jbotha_at_agric.wa.gov.au
Biometrics Ms Jane Speijers
jspeijers_at_agric.wa.gov.au Policy Ms Simone
Tuten stuten_at_agric.wa.gov.au