Center for Engineering Systems Fundamentals (CESF): The Beginnings

1
Center for Engineering Systems Fundamentals
(CESF) The Beginnings

• Dick Larson
• ESD Faculty Lunch
• Tuesday, September 20, 2005

2
Background

• Recommendation of Review Committee and of ESD
  Faculty Members via ESD Strategic Plan
• May be a way to transform doughnut into a muffin!
• Started on September 1
• This semester is one of designing the plan for
  the CESF with your help!
• Suggested process of small group of dedicated
  faculty members create a White Paper as a Blue
  Print!

3
(No Transcript)
4
From the ESD Strategic Plan..
5
Definition of Engineering Systems

• Engineering Systems are
• Technologically enabled Networks Meta-systems
  which transform, transport, exchange and regulate
  Mass, Energy and Information
• Large-scale
• large number of interconnections and components
• Socio-technical aspects
• social, political and economic aspects that
  influence them
• Nested complexity
• within technical system and social/political
  system
• Dynamic
• involving multiple time scales,uncertainty
  lifecycle issues
• Likely to have emergent properties
• Examples are
• Automobile Production Systems, Aerospace
  enterprise systems, Air and Ground Transportation
  Systems, Global Communication Systems, the World
  Wide Web, the National electric power grid

These systems exist have messy complexity
6
Engineering Systems(_at_ the interface of
Engineering, Management Social Sciences)
Social Sciences
Management
ESD
Engineering
7
ESD Strategic Thrusts Foundations

• Develop Fundamental Principles and Foundations Of
  Engineering Systems Which Establish Engineering
  Systems as a New Field Of Study
• Engineering Systems Principles Will Differ From
  Engineering Science Principles
• Enterprise Level Perspective
• Holistic Vs. Reductionist Approach
• Macro Scale Vs. Micro Scale Design
• Qualitative As Well As Quantitative Approaches,
  Context Part of Engineering System Analysis
• For example, the principles for design of large
  scale complex critical networks where technical
  and social/organizational/political analyses are
  combined

8
ESD Tactical Goals Foundations

• Form a Research Center on Engineering Systems
  Foundations
• Form an overarching faculty group to address
  fundamentals of ES. Develop faculty groups in
• System Architecture
• Uncertainty mgmt
• Lifecycle properties such as safety,
  sustainability, flexibility including policy
  issues
• Design transformation of engineering
  enterprises including social and organizational
  context
• Use new knowledge gained to synthesize new ES
• ESD should sponsor one or more RAs for innovative
  work on foundations
• Center should interact in ping pong fashion
  with Application oriented Centers
• Center should facilitate a network based
  communication of research among faculty, staff,
  students
• Center should establish an Editorial Board for
  developing the Book series
• Recruit several faculty to build up foundations
  in engineering enterprises lifecycle properties
• Assume Leadership In Cooperative University
  Efforts Through Engineering Systems University
  Council -
• For example, organize periodic Conference on
  Foundations of Engineering Systems
• Take leadership in professional societies such as
  INCOSE, INFORMS to advance engineering system
  fundamentals
• Develop a Book Series or interdisciplinary
  journals courses in five years on Fundamentals
  of Engineering Systems Utilizing Research
  Findings
• For example, look at specific ES systems from
  multiple perspectives
• Export all courses to OCW

9
Some Statements about CESF

• CESF's major focus will be research on the
  fundamentals and cross-cutting issues in
  Engineering Systems.
• CESF will focus on identifying and extracting
  fundamental concepts, methodologies and
  formalisms that will eventually define the new
  field called Engineering Systems.
• We hope that this center will establish
  Engineering Systems as a new and comprehensive
  approach to large scale engineering problems, a
  transformative approach that extends beyond the
  usual technocratic engineering concerns to
  consider broader societal concerns as well. ESD
  faculty are quite diverse, representing expertise
  in many social sciences as well as in virtually
  all major branches of engineering.
• This field looks at engineering design and
  analysis of large scale systems broadly,
  incorporating important aspects of the social
  sciences into more usual technical engineering
  considerations. The CESF will also examine the
  culture of engineering design, for instance in
  use of uncertainty instead of the usual
  engineering approach to minimize risk due to
  uncertainty we also need to examine how to
  maximize opportunity created by uncertainty.

10
Some Products

• An intellectual home to some ESD faculty members
  and students
• Doctoral graduates
• Sponsoring an Engineering Systems book series
• Sponsoring a bi-annual international symposium on
  Engineering Systems fundamentals
• Research papers
• Research projects
• Seminar speakers
• Impact, Impact, Impact

11
Perhaps a New Emphasis

• Much of ESD has focused on
  soft approaches to hard problems
• Perhaps it is time at add
  hard approaches to soft problems!
• Health care (14 GDP)
• Education (10 GDP)
• Preparedness and response to major events
• If we can engineer dams, highways, airplanes,
  nuclear reactors, computers, and factories, why
  cant we also help in the design of complex
  service systems?
• Services are over 75 of the USA economy,
  manufacturing is now about 17

12

• LINC
• Learning International Networks Consortium
• is part of CESF, representing design of
  educational systems leveraging technologies

13
DISTANCE EDUCATION AND E-LEARNING THE THIRD
ANNUAL SYMPOSIUM OF LEARNING INTERNATIONAL
NETWORKS CONSORTIUM SPONSORED BY THE
MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY OCTOBER 27
28, 2005 Some of the featured speakers
include Sisavanh Boupha Department of
Science and Technology, Laos In-Joo Chin
Inha University, Korea Royal Colle Cornell
University, U.S.A. Peter Froehler UNCTAD,
Switzerland Matthew Herren Maciej Sudra
Eduvision, Kenya Philip Hui Living Knowledge
Communities, Hong Kong Feiyu Kang Tsinghua
Univ. School of Continuing Education, China
Carlos Delgado Kloos Universidad Carlos III de
Madrid, Spain Naveed Malik Virtual
University of Pakistan, Pakistan Cliff Missen
WiderNet Project, Univ. of Iowa, U.S.A.
Sandy Pentland MIT Media Lab, U.S.A. Laura
Ruiz Perez Monterrey Tec Virtual University,
Mexico Sean Rowland Hibernia College,
Ireland Nabil Sabry Universite Francaise
dEgypte, Egypt Jaime Sanchez University of
Chile, Chile Milad Sebaaly Universal
Knowledge Solutions, United Arab Emirates
Honorio Silva Pfizer Inc., U.S.A. Douglas
Wilde Stanford University, U.S.A.
14
Really Need to Add the Social Dimension

• ESD.032J Colossal Failures in Engineering Case
  studies of known "colossal failures" from
  different engineering disciplines. Includes the
  collapse of the World Trade Center, the Columbia
  space shuttle accident, and the meltdown at
  Chernobyl. Basic engineering principles are
  stressed with descriptions of how the project was
  supposed to work, what actually went wrong, and
  what has been done to prevent such failures from
  reoccurring.

15
Really Need to Add the Social Dimension

• If this were truly ESD, it would also include
  failures identified long term by law of
  unintended consequences as applied to the social
  system in which the engineering system was
  imbedded. Examples
• Fords Edsel,
• Motorolas Iridium Project,
• New Coke,
• Apple Newton and Apple Lisa,
• Mammoth dense urban housing projects (St. Louis
  Pruitt-Igoe, Boston Columbia Point, Chicago's
  Cabrini-Green and Robert Taylor Homes),
• Forced bussing to achieve racial balance in
  cities (technical part viewed an a linear
  programming transportation problem).
• Also, spectacular successes mass production,
  electrification, interstate highway system,
  Internet.

16
Technocratic Engineering Failure Tacoma Narrows
Bridge AKA Galloping Gertie
http//www.nrc-cnrc.gc.ca/images/photos/200306_gal
loping.jpg
17
http//img.slate.msn.com/media/1/123125/2079215/21
12767/2114186/2114187/2114224/2114225/02_Pruitt-Ig
oe.jpg http//www.music.eku.edu/faculty/nelson/ass
ets/images/mus872/pruittigoe.jpg
18
What is the Role of Applications (Contextual
Problems) in CESF Research?

• Our feeling is that the best theory comes from
  the most difficult (real) problems.
• So, most CESF research will be focused on real
  problems, with an eye towards generalizing the
  results to other contextual domains.
• CESF will not do on-campus consulting projects
• Nor is it a center for pure methodology
  development, devoid of context

19
Typical CESF Research Cross-cutting
Application Methodology
Method 1
Method 2
Application or Context
20
Professional Recognition

• If we are successful, the professional
  communities of both context and method should
  value our work.

https//secure.friendshiphouse.com/E90167t.gif
21
Examples of Possible Research Areas
http//www.istockphoto.com/file_thumbview_approve/
27989/2/Mad_Scientist.jpg
22
Aggressive use of probability, diversity and
non-uniformity

• Belicheck, 4th and one.
• Decision and policy errors inherent in
  considering a group or population as a single
  point (e.g., mean or stereotype) rather than
  a diverse constellation of individuals.
• Darwinian evolution of complex systems, with
  natural selection, mutations and survival of the
  fittest.
• Non-equilibrium
• Over-booking
• Airline Boeing flower pedal example
• Revenue management (airlines, hotel, resorts,
  electricity, telecom)
• Multi-lane highways too (also time of day
  predictability Golden Gate Bridge)

23
System Architecture

• From Olivier de Weck Role of System Architect
• The architect performs the most abstract, high
  level function in product development
• The architect is the driving force of the
  conceptual phase
• The architect
• -Defines the boundaries and functions
• -Creates the Concept
• -Allocates functionality and defines interfaces
  and abstractions
• -The architect is not a generalist, but a
  specialist in simplifying complexity, resolving
  ambiguity and focusing creativity

24
Fundamental Research on System Architecture

• Borrowed from Software Engineers An
  architecture is a framework for the disciplined
  introduction of change. This is also a pretty
  good definition of design. The difference between
  the two is that design, as we commonly use the
  word, applies to a single product, while
  architecture applies to a family of products.
• Emerging research area evolutionary, robust,
  resilient, organically growing architectures.
  Linkages to software Systems Architectures.
  These features need to be considered for systems
  that are evolving social systems, like most
  service systems.

25
Some Possible Hot Topics

• Tipping points Understanding them and
  identifying them in systems
• Law of unintended consequences
• Richter scale on major events

26
The Next Pandemic? Laurie Garrett Since it first
emerged in 1997, avian influenza has become
deadlier and more resilient. It has infected 109
people and killed 59 of them. If the virus
becomes capable of human-to-human transmission
and retains its extraordinary potency, humanity
could face a pandemic unlike any ever
witnessed.Preparing for the Next Pandemic
Michael T. Osterholm If an influenza pandemic
struck today, borders would close, the global
economy would shut down, international vaccine
supplies and health-care systems would be
overwhelmed, and panic would reign. To limit the
fallout, the industrialized world must create a
detailed response strategy involving the public
and private sectors.The Human-Animal Link
William B. Karesh and Robert A. Cook Recent
outbreaks of avian flu, SARS, the Ebola virus,
and mad cow disease wreaked havoc on global trade
and transport. They also all originated in
animals. Humanity today is acutely vulnerable to
diseases that start off in other species, yet our
health care remains dangerously blinkered. It is
time for a new, global approach.

• Avian Flu Pandemic
• Preparedness
• Response
• Richter 7

27
Processes Going Forward

• Bi-weekly meetings of new CESF affiliated faculty
  members, leading to White Paper in December.
• Center for Innovation in Product Development
  (CIPD) and its assets will be merged with CESF in
  the upcoming months.
• How should the Center should operate relative to
  CTPID? Faculty Committee examining this.
• Meetings with ESD doctoral students.
• Two RAs dedicated to helping us to identify
  promising research areas.
• Want at least two substantial research proposals
  submitted this year.
• Want arrangements with book publisher
  established, then editorial committee.

28
We Welcome Your Participation!
http//homepage.mac.com/peterlevesque/iblog/C65116
3868/E1704589105/Media/HerdingCats.jpg
29
To Help Create the New CESF!
http//www.critterpat.com/catalog/9801-01.jpg