A Parable

1
A Parable

• One day a king arrived at a town inhibited by the
  blind. Along with his troops, he bought an large
  elephant. Several of the inhabitants visited the
  kings encampment and tried to gather information
  by touching some part of the beast. When they
  returned the fellow citizens gathered around to
  learn about its form and shape. The man who felt
  the trunk said an elephant long, thick and
  flexible like snake. One man who had touch the
  tail countered no, it is thin like a rope.
  Another who had felt its leg said It is solid
  and firm. Like a tree trunk. Finally an
  individual who had climbed on its back remarked
  You are all drunk, an elephant is rough and
  textured like a brush. Each had been misled by
  feeling one part out of many. All imagined
  something incorrect because they did not perceive
  the whole elephant.

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GoalsDefining the pilot project in such a way
that

• It can be beneficial to all littoral countries of
  the Caspian Sea.
• The outcome and its resulted guidelines can be
  used in other countries
• The final products application can be replicated
  in other countries around the sea, so that the
  invested budgets benefits can be replicated
  continuously
• The final product can be used in other vital
  rivers and lakes of the neighboring countries for
  maximization of the benefits to all
• The projects development can enhance regional
  cooperation on implication of the Stockholm
  convention
• The projects application can increase the level
  of information exchange among the Caspian
  countries

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• The projects application can increase the level
  of uniformity in
• Methods of sampling,
• Measurement,
• Data gathering,
• Data management system,
• Data analysis and interpretation,
• Risk assessment and quantification,
• Priority setting,
• Clean up,
• Monitoring, and
• Evaluation

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In ShortThe Project should be

• Just
• Beneficial to all
• Practical
• Replicable
• Relevant to Stockholm Convention
• Bring our minds (and of course our hearts) closer
  together
• And more importantly make us all have smiles on
  our faces at the end ?

5
The Idea

• The Caspian Sea as the worlds largest closed
  body of water, shared by five great nations,
  provides us with a unique opportunity to assess
  and better understand the mechanisms and dynamics
  of fate and transport of contaminants and in
  particular POPs contaminants in it.

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Why?

• We need to have an assessment, on a regional
  level, of how our rivers from land-base sources
  and our coastal zones contribute to the pollution
  of the Caspian sea!
• To identify point sources of pollution
• To identify non-point-sources of pollution
• Quantify the extent of pollution
• Predict the fate and transport of pollutants
• Qualify and confirm the predictions
• Assess the risks

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What do we need?

• We need a comprehensive conceptual model
• A robust numerical simulation F.E.M. Code
• A well designed uniform regional data gathering
  system
• A robust Data Management System
• An intelligent analysis and interpretation team
• All this will be fed to our meetings for policy
  setting

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What Do We Propose?

• Development of a mathematical longitudinal
  vertically averaged hydrodynamic river flow model
  for quantification of
• advective,
• diffusive, and
• dispersive contaminant transport in our rivers,
• which includes all the possible
• Sinks and
• Sources
• And more importantly The interaction between the
  surface flow and groundwater

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Other Aspects!

• Our model should be able to handle
• Point Sources
• Non-Point Sources
• It should also be capable of addressing
• Adsorption
• Absorption
• Microbial degradation (Aerobic/Anaerobic)
• Partitioning among (Water, sediment, biota,)
• Photo-Oxidation

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What Else?

• Development of a complex ecological dynamic
  model, which takes into account interactions in
  the
• Physical
• Chemical, and
• Biological
• Levels.

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And More!

• A large scale CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamic)
  model for the Caspian Sea to take the River-Model
  output as its input and simulate the interaction
  between the Sea and the rivers in the Fate and
  Transport assessment of the POPs (Or otherwise)
  contaminants.

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The Instrument for Running the Models

• Writing an FEM (Finite Element Method) computer
  code to
• Get the measured input data for point and
  non-point sources
• Simulate the transport
• Provide an output in the Estuarine region to the
  Caspian Sea
• And another Sea-code to
• Get the output of the River-code and
• Simulate the fate and transport in the sea

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Other Steps

• Calibration of the code with the field data
• In the rivers
• In the sea

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Which Site to begin with?

• Southern Part of the Caspian Sea including
  provinces of
• East Azarbaijan
• Ardebil
• Gilan
• Mazandaran
• Golestan

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Which rivers?

• Arax (Between the Iranian East Azarbaijan,
  Ardebil and the Republic of Azarbaijan)
• Atrak (Between the Iranian province of Golestan
  and the Republic of Turkmenistan)
• Sepid Rood in Gilan
• Some other smaller rivers such as, Gorgan, Ghara
  Su, Ab-Suma, Neka, Tajan,Talar, Babol, Haraz,
  Neka Rood, Chalak Rood, Shalman, Langerood,
  Shanderman, Nav, Gorganrood, Hoveigh, Lamire,
  Lundville, KariChai, Ghara Su, Astara Chai, and
  many others

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Why the importance?

• This is a very fertile agricultural land located
  between the Alburz Mountains and the Caspian Sea
• Almost not a single square meter of it is unused
  or unoccupied (Very densely populated)
• Most of the Iranian inland fresh water drains
  from this region into the Caspian Sea
• According to the inventory taking results,
  approximately 25 of the annual pesticides use is
  stored in this regions storages.

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Continued

• In the past persistent organic pesticides have
  been used in the region.
• To combat Malaria, a few occasions of DDT
  application is on the record
• Frequent application of Aldrin, Dieldrin,
  Toxaphen, and Endrin against termites and
  grasshopper is on the record
• At the present the highest frequency of dietary
  related cancers in Iran is in the proposed
  region, in particular Stomach cancer and breast
  cancer.

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A few words

• So if we need to increase awareness, we should
  make sure we ourselves really know the scale and
  scope of the problem!
• This requires an accurate conceptual and
  simulation model of the available data.
• If we want to clean up, we will need to know
  which hot spots are contributing and will
  contribute more in the future to the increase of
  the risks to human population and nature!
• This requires an accurate conceptual and
  simulation model for assessment of the present as
  well as the prediction of future.

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Continuation of the last defense ?

• If we need to train,
• The existence of a good conceptual model which
  gives us a good oversight of the subject would
  shed light on the direction and scope of such
  education!
• If we are going to Dispose,
• A model will better guide us in setting the
  priorities on what should go first and how!

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• THANKX
• To ALL For
• Listening!
• ?