Climate Change and Africa

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Climate Change and Africa
Providing Energy Access for the Poor While
Combating Climate Change E-Parliament Hearing
Professor Anthony Nyong Coordinating Lead Author,
Africa Chapter 6-8 June 2008 Samburu, kenya
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Outline of Presentation

• Africas Current Key Vulnerabilities
• Africas Projected Climate
• Projected Impacts
• Implications for Africas Development
• Mitigation Options
• Adaptation and Adaptive Capacity
• Knowledge Gaps

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Current Sensitivities and Vulnerabilities

• Africa, one of the most vulnerable continents to
  climate variability and change.
• Vulnerability aggravated by the interaction of
  climate and other multiple stresses.

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Current Weather and Climate
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Water

• About 25 of population under water stress
• About 62 with access to improved supply
• High inter-annual lake level fluctuations
• Notable high water inter-dependency

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Agriculture

• Mainstay of Africas economy
• agriculture rain-fed/irrigated
• Agricultural growth not commensurate with
  population growth

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Health

• Sub-optimal investment on health
• Heavy health burdens HIV/AIDS, Malaria,
  Meningitis, Cholera
• Economic loss from malaria about 12 billion USD
  Annually

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Ecosystem

• About 30 classified as arid/semi-arid
• 25 35km southward shift in the Sahel from
  1970-1990
• Forest fires, loss of fog water and downward
  migration of species on Mt. Kilimanjaro.
• Loss of 5 million ha of forest annually between
  1990 and 2000.

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Settlement Infrastructure

• Between 2-4 million additional people could be
  flooded before the end of the century.
• About 30 of coastal infrastructure could be
  inundated by SLR, with very significant losses in
  income and a high cost of repairs.

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Multiple Stresses
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Other Stresses

• Governance and institutions
• Globalization, trade and market reforms
• Access to capital and technology
• Water access and management
• Health management
• Energy
• Complex disasters and conflicts

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Africas Projected Climate

• Increasing temperature between 2080 and 2099, up
  to about 5.8deg C
• Decreased precipitation except in tropical and
  some parts of eastern Africa
• More frequent and intense tropical storms, about
  20 increase in cyclone activity

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Projected Impacts - Water

• Between 75 250 million exposed to water stress
  by 2020, 350-600 million by 2050.
• Likely reduction in run-off by about 10, with
  implications for lake levels and energy.
• Potential for water wars

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Projected Impacts Agriculture

• Decrease in length of growing season, and areas
  suitable for rain-fed agriculture.
• Reduction in yields of up to 50 in many places
• Variable impact on livestock
• Reductions in fish population with large
  temperature.

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Projected Impacts- Health

• Increase in Malnutrition
• Increase in meningitis epidemic
• By 2080s, additional 80 million people at risk of
  malaria
• Increased incidences of Rift Valley Fever in East
  Africa

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Projected Impacts - Ecosystem

• 25 42 of over 5000 African plants lose all
  areas by 2085.
• Further bleaching of coral reefs.
• By 2050, 10-15 of animals in 141 National parks
  at risk of extinction
• Losses of up to 50 for some bird species
• Spread of invasive species
• Semi arid/arid lands increase by 8.

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Projected Impacts - Coastal Zones

• 2 to 4 million additional people will be flooded
  by by 2080.
• 0.5m sea level rise will inundate a sizable
  portion of the coastal areas of east Africa
• Significant losses in income from natural
  resources
• 30 of coastal infrastructure could be inundated
  by Sea Level Rise.
• The cost of climate-related disasters in Africa
  over the next 2 decades could reach up to 10
  trillion.

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Most Vulnerable

• Every region in Africa is vulnerable, but the
  low-lying coastal regions very vulnerable
• The band from Senegal to Sudan very vulnerable to
  droughts, severe reduction in river flows,
  impacts on agriculture.
• Most vulnerable are the rural poor who depend
  largely on agriculture and the ecosystem.

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Implications for Development

• Mean cost of climate change about 2.7 of GDP in
  Africa by 2100.
• Climate-driven reduction in GDP would exacerbate
  poverty and raise child mortality rate.
• Impediment to achievements of MDGs

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• Greater resource scarcity, desertification, risks
  of droughts and floods, and rising sea levels
  could intensify migrations with costly
  implications.
• Drought and other climate-related shocks may
  spark conflict and violence, as they have done
  already in many parts of Africa.

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Managing Climate Risk
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Mitigation

• Energy-related emissions account for more than 80
  percent of global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions
  responsible for climate change.
• Globally, fossil fuels will remain the dominant
  source of energy to 2030, accounting for 83 of
  the overall increase in energy demand between
  2004 and 2030.
• The share of biomass falls marginally, as
  developing countries increasingly switch to using
  modern commercial energy, offsetting the growing
  use of biomass as feedstock for agrofuels
  production and for power and heat generation.
• Non-hydro renewables including wind, solar and
  geothermal grow quickest, but from a small base.

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Buildings Sector Global and Regional Importance

• In 2004, in Buildings responsible for approx.
  1/3 of global CO2 emissions
• 2030 Energy use in buildings will release to the
  atmosphere 11.8 to 15.6 Gt CO2eq. in 2030 the
  largest increase in developing countries

CO2 emissions including through the use of
electricity A1B scenario
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Mitigation in Buildings Sustainable Development
Reduction in local air pollution
Improved health lifestyle
Mitigation in Buildings
Improved productivity
Reduction of energy use
Employment opportunities
Abatement of CO2
Poverty alleviation
Renewable energy
Energy security
DEVELOPMENT IMPERATIVES
Energy efficiency
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Global Savings in C02 Emissions - Most Gains from
Efficiency
Source IEA, WEO 2006
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The Importance of Improved Energy Efficiency in
GHG Mitigation

• Energy efficiency is one of the most important
  options to reduce GHG emissions worldwide in the
  short- to mid-term
• If costs are taken into account, improved
  building efficiency becomes the most important
  instrument in the short- to mid-term
• Capturing only the cost-effective potential in
  buildings can supply approx. 38 of total
  reduction needed in 2030 to keep us on a
  trajectory capping warming at 3C
• New buildings can achieve the largest savings
• As much as 80 of the operational costs of
  standard new buildings can be saved through
  integrated design principles
• Often at no or little extra cost
• Hi-efficiency renovation is more costly, but
  possible
• The majority of technologies and know-how are
  widely available

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Co-benefits of Improved Energy-Efficiency in
Buildings

• Co-benefits are especially abundant and strong in
  the buildings sector
• Co-benefits are often not quantified, monetized,
  or even identified by the decision-makers
• The overall financial value of co-benefits may be
  higher than the value of the energy savings
  benefits
• Selected co-benefits include
• Employment creation
• new business opportunities
• improved competitiveness and productivity
• Improved energy security
• reduced burden of constrained energy generation
  capacities
• Increased value for real estate
• Improved social welfare, reduced fuel poverty
• Improved air quality (both indoor and outdoor)

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Adaptation

• Options exist to assist Africa to cope with
  climate change
• Climate change and Sustainable Development
  through Adaptation
• Limited adaptation to climate variability but
  insufficient for future climate.

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Adaptive Capacity

• Constraints to adaptive Capacity
• extreme poverty
• limited scientific and technical capabilities,
• poor institutional support,
• multiple stressors

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Suggestions and Recommendations
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Solutions 1 Training and Information

• Lack of knowledge on energy saving construction
  techniques among architects is a major barrier to
  energy efficiency, even in most developed
• Information campaigns should be adopted due to
  the lack of trust to new issues
• Trust awareness can be raised through pilot
  projects administered financed by international
  organizations or bilateral donor agencies or
  through demonstration projects in the public
  sector
• Demonstration programs at all levels (capital,
  villages and cities) such as the Green Buildings
  for Africa program in South Africa prove the
  advantages of energy efficiency to every citizen,
  independent of the education level
• Especially in rural areas, characterized by
  relatively high levels of illiteracy,
  communication and learning often take place via
  informal channels such as learning from
  neighbors hence the importance of demonstration
  projects

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Solutions 2 Financial assistance

• High cost of energy efficient technologies hamper
  their penetration, especially if the technologies
  are imported
• Especially poorer consumers need investment
  support or affordable loans from bilateral and
  international donor agencies,
• Some countries of Africa have sufficient level of
  economic development to raise money on their own
  through
• Public benefit charges or taxes
• The tax revenues are collected in a fund and are
  used for supporting energy efficiency projects
• It is important that such funds are managed by
  independent agencies or institutions to avoid
  political influence
• CDM projects may offer carbon finance for energy
  efficiency projects, but only few CDM projects in
  the buildings sector due to high transaction
  costs, and other barriers

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Solutions 3 Adaptation in local circumstances

• Numerous programs have already failed because
  they were just copying programs from other
  countries
• Situation analyses are very important before any
  decision is taken
• Ex. In Brazil, in some regions, electric showers
  are the second most important electricity
  consumers in households and therefore require
  labelling whereas fridges are more important in
  other regions

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Solutions 4 Institutionalization

• Developing countries with successful energy
  efficiency policies have usually started with the
  adoption of an Energy Efficiency law or an Energy
  Efficiency Strategy
• In order to assist public sector building
  managers, but also private persons to get the
  information, the creation of energy agencies is
  usually very helpful
• Thailand, South Africa and Mexico also have
  energy agencies
• Numerous Arab states are currently introducing
  such agencies, often with external assistance

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The Race _at_ sunrise Every morning in Africa a
gazelle wakes up. It knows it must outrun the
fastest lion or IT WILL BE KILLED! Every
morning In Africa a lion wakes up. It knows it
must outrun the slowest gazelle or IT WILL
STARVE TO DEATH! It does not matter whether
You are a Lion or a gazelle WHEN THE SUN COMES
UP, YOU HAD BETTER BE RUNNING!